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Eric Mack

Week 21 Fantasy Stockwatch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

This week's potential 'Buy Guys'

SP Brandon Morrow, SEA
No, he is not returning to the Mariners' rotation yet, but among September call-ups, few have the potential of this hard-throwing right-hander. Morrow will get a few more starts to stretch his arm out, but he should be ready to arrive around Sept. 1, barring setbacks. The 2006 No. 1 pick has served his Pitch-22 apprenticeship (good enough to start, but too valuable in relief). He will return to one of the worst teams in baseball, but he has the kind of talent that can still make him a trustworthy Fantasy option down the stretch. Felix Hernandez and a healthy Erik Bedard can have value, so Morrow can, too. He can be that good.
2B Placido Polanco, DET
Hot streaks are sweet, especially when they are accompanied with an uptick in power numbers. They are super sweet when there is a plausible reason behind it, too. Polanco has stopped choking up on the bat and has hit more homers of late. The one drawback with this second baseman has been his lack of homers, but if he can toss that variable into his game, he could be a top 10 Fantasy option. We think this hot streak is more of a function of a normal statistical correction, but perhaps you can use the choking down news to get max value for Polanco now.
C Victor Martinez, CLE
The preseason No. 1 Fantasy catcher is on a rehab assignment and popped a homer Sunday. Great news. The fact Kelly Shoppach is proving starter worthy is good news for V-Mart, too, actually. Because the slugging catcher -- yes, he is still a slugger despite another disappointing start to his season -- can get at-bats as DH. More DH at-bats for V-Mart means less days off than a normal catcher. We might even find out Martinez will become a full-time DH and part-time catcher going foward. That might be the best-case scenario going forward. He could be a .300-30-100-100 candidate next year in that split role.
DH Travis Hafner, CLE
Hafner has a much-less certain future than V-Mart, but whenever a former Fantasy first-round pick gets to return to action, you want to take notice. Hafner is still dealing with a chronic shoulder, but he is starting a rehab assignment Monday night and could prove healthy enough to return before September. This is a make or break time for the career DH, because the Indians might be inclined to view V-Mart as their DH for 2009. Healthy or not, Hafner has to be motivated to re-earn a starting job and respect of his organization.
SP Brandon McCarthy, TEX
Yet another injury-risk sleeper, and yet another potential impact September call-up all rolled into one. The difference between McCarthy and Morrow -- other than the injury questions and probable dearth of velocity -- is the Rangers pitching prospect can return to the best offense in baseball instead of one of the worst. McCarthy was doing very poorly when he was removed from the DL and optioned to the minors, but a chat with Nolan Ryan seems to have done him good. He has pitched 13 consecutive scoreless innings now. Consider him a potential sleeper in deeper leagues, especially when you consider the outstanding run support he can get to make him a winner for your Fantasy team down the stretch.

Some more 'Buy Guys' we couldn't fit in: 1B/3B Chris Davis, TEX; RP Jensen Lewis, CLE; SP Joe Blanton, PHI; 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD; SP Carl Pavano, NYY; SP Aaron Poreda, CHW; SS Jed Lowrie, BOS; RP Chris Perez, STL; OF Chris Dickerson, CIN; SP Brett Myers, PHI; OF Jeff Francoeur, ATL.

This week's potential 'Goodbye Guys'

SP Phil Hughes, NYY
Every step on his rehab stint he was proving more capable than Carl Pavano (elbow), until the potential final step Sunday. Hughes struggled in his Triple-A start and now will likely have to watch Pavano rejoin the Yankees rotation this weekend. Hughes might not get a shot until Joba Chamberlain (shoulder) is ready again now, too. This is certainly a kick in the front side of the pants for his Fantasy owners hoping to finally get some value out of their DL stashee.
SP John Maine, NYM
In yours truly's typical contrarian fashion, don't look kindly on Maine's 10 shutout innings since his return from the DL. Yes, he is seemingly pitching much better than when we called him a potential 20-game winner to start the season. He has been a huge disappointment in Fantasy and now a mini scoreless streak seems to show he is ready to breakthrough. But read more than just the stats. Maine, who was throwing 97 mph when we liked him so much before, is now topping out around 89 mph. That is a serious sign he is not right physically. He is running high pitch counts, too, proven to be nothing more than a five-inning pitcher. That is really bad news with the awful Mets bullpen that tends to give up touchdowns after the starter leaves -- not just three-run field goals but ghastly six-run touchdowns. Geez, is it football season? Apparently for the Mets' bullpen, it is.
SP Brad Penny, LAD
Penny, like Maine, has struggled in his return from shoulder woes. He is back on the DL and merely hopeful to return before the end of the season. Manager Joe Torre is not expecting him to at this point. Penny is not ruled out for the season, but you might as well for Fantasy purposes. The Dodgers will be cautious, even in a pennant race. If Penny returns it will be very late and only to build up arm strength for a potential postseason with a contender squarely in the thick of the NL Worst division title hunt.
SP Aaron Harang, CIN
'Tis the season for pitchers with bum arms. Harang might say he is healthy, but he is merely a bum regardless. Added to his struggles is the Reds' firesale that has them without veteran thump in their lineup. We don't give Harang much of a chance to be a winner for your Fantasy team down the stretch, so it might even be time to cut him outright in mixed leagues. A bum arm, a bum pitcher and a bum team make he pretty worthless right now.
3B Hank Blalock, TEX
Hammerin' Hank is returning as soon as this weekend. Good news. But a lame shoulder won't allow him to play third base every day. That duty will go to splash rookie hit Chris Davis, who the Rangers will give a good look to at the position down the stretch. Blalock's return makes him a sleeper in deeper leagues, but you cannot expect too much from a player who has to change positions because his shoulder is still not right. A player can play with a sore shoulder. But bad shoulders notoriously saps a slugger's power and they will be nowhere near their best. Blalock is still talented and seemingly just entering his prime at 27, but how many years have we said the same about similar injury-risk third baseman Eric Chavez? Be afraid, very afraid.

Some more 'Goodbye Guys' we couldn't fit in: SP Josh Beckett, BOS; SP Kyle Lohse, STL; OF/1B Nick Swisher, CHW; SP Brian Bannister, KC; OF Ken Griffey, CHW; SP Kevin Millwood, TEX; 2B Aaron Hill, TOR; RP Eddie Kunz, NYM; RP Billy Wagner, NYM; SP Gio Gonzalez, OAK.

Stock advisor

Goosenyny, Garden City, N.Y.: You forgot to mention Jason Varitek.

Emack: Yeah, he is no longer a viable starter in mixed leagues. But, you should have known better than to trust a late-30s catcher. Age 32 is the age of breakdown at the rigorous position and Varitek is years past that.

Scruggs: With this year ending, I am already thinking about next year's draft. I drafted Albert Pujols 10th overall for my first pick this year, but as I look over the points for the overall year there are about eight other first baseman out there that are very close in points to Pujols. Is the first base position turning into a second round or later draft position, or is Pujols really the only first baseman that should be taken in the first round?

Emack: Pujols' consistency is what makes him a Fantasy first-rounder annually. You can trust him. If you drafted Prince Fielder in Round 1 you are disappointed. If you gave Ryan Howard a look as your first-rounder in leagues that penalize strikeouts, you are bummed out. Pujols is as close to a sure thing as they come. We cannot guarantee Lance Berkman will have another big year. In fact, we still think Pujols is the best first base Fantasy option down the stretch -- and that is in a year he was supposedly a candidate to be shut down early to repair a partially torn elbow ligament. Sure, first base is notoriously a deep position and good players can be had later, but Round 1 is just for the studs and Pujols will still qualify in that category for years.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.

Josh Hamilton
Hamilton expected to arrive on time
Josh Hamilton, LF, TEX
12:55 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers GM Jon Daniels said he expects Josh Hamilton to report for spring training on time despite a recent revelation that Hamilton had a relapse in his quest to stay sober. Hamilton's admission led to a meeting with doctors associated with an after-care program run by MLB and the players association. The doctors have appeared to eliminate the option of sending Hamilton to rehab. Position players for the Rangers don't have to report until Feb. 25. "His health and his family are the priorities. We're not going to pre-empt that for anything about a contract," Daniels said about contract extension talks regarding Hamilton.
Analysis: Because of his recent relapse, Hamilton's prospects for a multi-year deal with Texas may be jeopardized for the time being. Though Hamilton has had to grapple with his addictions during his time with the Rangers, they haven't impacted his on-the-field performance. Hamilton remains an early-round target in all Fantasy formats.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

James Paxton
Paxton working on changeup
James Paxton, RP, SEA
1:21 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners SP prospect James Paxton said he is working a changeup into his repertoire. "It's something I've been working on for a while and that they figure is going to help me by adding another weapon,'' Paxton said. Paxton has been invited to major-league camp, but he appears to be a long shot to make the opening-day roster. "I'm just honored to be invited here,'' Paxton said. "This is a fantastic opportunity and I'm going to try to learn as much as I can.''
Analysis: After pitching in independent ball for a year, Paxton finally joined the minors in 2011. He had a successful run in Class A and Double-A. He went 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts. More importantly, he struck out 12.4 batters per nine innings. If Paxton has an impressive spring and gets off to a fast start in the minors, then he might arrive in the majors in 2012. However, he remains more of a long-term Fantasy keeper until he gets closer to his MLB debut.

Koji Uehara
Uehara pitched through elbow issue?
Koji Uehara, RP, TEX
1:02 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers RP Koji Uehara hinted on his blog that he received an injection into his right elbow last season. Uehara also posted that he threw 100 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday before departing Japan for spring training.
Analysis: Uehara has his history of injury issues, but he pitched for the Orioles and Rangers last season and neither team hinted at elbow problems. Uehara in fact posted a career-best 2.35 ERA in 65 outings. The Rangers are shopping Uehara because of a plethora of bullpen arms. Uehara will have value in deeper Rotisserie leagues for his low ERA, low WHIP and high strikeout rate. If he goes somewhere that needs a closer, his stock would rise, but he would still be a low-end option.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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