By the Numbers: Make up ground with steals

As the season winds down, one way you could make up ground or pad your lead is to fortify your team's position in the stolen base category. It's not the easiest way to improve your place in the standings. There are only about two dozen players who project to steal five bases or more over the remainder of the season, and most of those players are probably on someone else's roster in your league. Some, however, can be acquired by a simple visit to the waiver wire, and it may be a worthy investment of a few minutes to acquire two or three of these players, because that could be enough to make a difference in both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats.

If these acquisitions are going to work in your favor, you have to look at both sides of the balance sheet. Upgrading your steals from less-than-blazing Edwin Encarnacion to the speedier Cesar Izturis will probably add five or six steals to your total, but the cost in home runs, RBI and runs is far too steep to justify the move.

Particularly in mixed leagues, the opportunity cost of dropping a marginal player will be steep enough at some positions to make hunting for steals an impractical strategic move. This is not to say that it's never worthwhile to focus on stolen bases, as trading off power or average is a feasible strategy at some positions. What follows are a series of examples of swaps of marginal mixed league players for stolen base upgrades. If you prefer your player comparisons in the form of smackdowns or grudge matches, we can call these the battles between the Bubble Guys and the Men of Steal. We will feature a battle at each position to see where the best opportunities are to win with steals.

Catcher: Yadier Molina (Bubble Guy) vs. Mike Napoli (Man of Steal)

Earlier this season, I identified Gregg Zaun as the consummate Bubble catcher due to his middle-of-the-road skill set and median RC/27 score. With his diminished playing time, Zaun's bubble has burst, but Yadier Molina is ready to supplant him. Molina's four career swipes in five seasons renders him absolutely useless in our quest for steals, but Mike Napoli is there to be had on waivers in four out of five leagues on CBSSports.com. If you were to dump Molina for Napoli, you may gain as many as three or four steals, but you would sacrifice dearly in average. As the gain in Fantasy Points per plate appearance would indicate, this move is still a no-brainer, because of the boost Napoli could provide in homers, RBI and runs. While few would think of obtaining Napoli for steals, he is the best widely-available option out there, as Russell Martin and Ivan Rodriguez would be difficult to acquire and the punchless Jason Kendall is nowhere near as valuable as Molina.

First Base: James Loney (Bubble Guy) vs. Eric Hinske (Man of Steal)

Bubble first baseman James Loney is already one of the better producers of stolen bases at his position, but if you really wanted to go for steals, you could swap him out for Eric Hinske. Now that he is playing regularly again, the Rays' first baseman/outfielder could provide owners with three or four additional steals over the remaining weeks. That doesn't sound like a lot, but as with Napoli, it's a bonus you would get along with the additional homers, RBI and runs he would provide. Hinske is still available in 70 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.

Second Base: Akinori Iwamura (Bubble Guy) vs. Emmanuel Burriss (Man of Steal)

Stolen bases are much more plentiful at second base than at catcher or first base, but many of the big stealers, like Ryan Theriot (eligible at 2B) and Rickie Weeks, are already rostered in most leagues. One widely available option is Emmanuel Burriss, who is playing regularly and could nab another 10 bases before the year is done. The cost of those extra steals is mainly in the form of a lower average and fewer homers, though RBI and runs could suffer, too. By the time you weigh everything out, it is nearly a wash in terms of the number of Fantasy Points each would earn. Whether or not you would make this move in a Rotisserie league depends on how much of a hit you can afford to take in average, since neither player looks to be much of a difference maker in the other categories.

Third Base: Edwin Encarnacion (Bubble Guy) vs. Willie Harris (Man of Steal)

Casey Blake was our original Bubble third baseman, but given Blake's recent stellar play, Encarnacion gives us a more realistic benchmark. We've already established that Cesar Izturis isn't a Fantasy upgrade over Encarnacion, but we may have a winner in Willie Harris. His primary position is OF, but he is eligible at the hot corner, where he poses an alternative to Encarnacion and other stolen base-deprived third basemen. Even with Harris playing over his head, he can't compete with Encarnacion in the home run category. The two players will be close in batting average, RBI and runs, so the choice really is a trade-off of five or six extra home runs for four or five extra steals. If you are in a tight race for homers, you may want to pass on Harris, but he's a helpful pickup if you have some breathing room in the home run category.

Shortstop: Yunel Escobar (Bubble Guy) vs. Jason Bartlett (Man of Steal)

Escobar supplants David Eckstein as our Bubble Guy at short, since Eckstein has spent more time sitting on the pine than on the bubble lately. Bartlett is as good a choice as any shortstop in your pursuit of steals, but he is still probably not good enough. He will outsteal Escobar by at least 20 bases over the course of the season, but that is the only category where he will overtake him. Given that Escobar is one of the least likely shortstops to steal and Bartlett is one of the most likely, it is probably too late to use your shortstop slot as a means for gaining ground in this category.

Outfield: Jason Kubel (Bubble Guy) vs. Willy Taveras or Fred Lewis (Men of Steal)

Your best opportunity to gain steals may be in the outfield, if only because that's where the major league leader, Willy Taveras, plays. As is usually the case, this great reward comes with great risk. To get the 15 to 20 steals that Taveras could produce in the final weeks, you may have to give up a lot in the home run, RBI and average categories. Jason Kubel is one of the best examples of a marginal outfielder in mixed leagues, and the comparison between Kubel and Taveras clearly illustrates the large sacrifice that would be required from Kubel owners. Another risk is that Taveras might not even be available. He is currently on a roster in 54 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.

Another approach is to replace someone like Kubel with a "compromise" player like Fred Lewis, who will give you a smaller upgrade in steals but better performance than Taveras in the other categories. In Rotisserie, this is a safer strategy, particularly if it won't take much to leapfrog the teams ahead of you in stolen bases. In Head-to-Head, Kubel, Taveras and Lewis are all basically equivalent, so there is no compelling reason to make a move.

The value of steals will be different for practically every team. The closer you are to the competition, the more meaningful a boost in stolen bases will be. In general, you have the best chance to make up ground by upgrading for steals at the power positions: catcher, first base, third base and outfield. Players at these positions who can help with steals typically have something to offer in the other categories. If you try to catch up by upgrading at a middle infield position, you will find that players like Emmanuel Burriss and Jason Bartlett force you to give up too much.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.