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Scott White

Sliders: Very sorry, Vazquez!

By | Fantasy Writer


Quiet.

For weeks, not a sound. The world had gone silent, as if the day-to-day routine of a 162-game season had brought a natural order to things. I talked, people listened, time passed and the process repeated ... in silence.

Then, I criticized Javier Vazquez.

Out of the woodwork came the sound of a hundred voices, loyal Fantasy owners rushing to defend a pitcher whose struggles they apparently had enough depth to absorb.

"You come down too hard on the guy. He hasn't done anything wrong. I'd have him start for me any day of the week." And so on.

Javier Vazquez seems to run hot and cold with some Fantasy owners. (US Presswire)  
Javier Vazquez seems to run hot and cold with some Fantasy owners. (US Presswire)  
All this for a guy with a career ERA halfway to 9.00 who lived up to expectations exactly once in the last four seasons.

"All right," I told them, "put your unwavering confidence in a pitcher with a 6.23 ERA since May. We'll see where it gets you. We'll see."

We saw.

Change-up I recently predicted incorrectly on this guy and need to make a revision.

Javier Vazquez, SP, White Sox

It's not just that Vazquez won both his starts since I spewed my hatred. He pitched eight innings twice, allowed fewer than two earned runs twice, and struck out more than a batter per inning twice. In short, he did everything he could to make me look like a fool and you like a pile of nondescript geniuses.

Well, at least I'm not in a pile.

He pitched like more than just a solid pitcher on a good run. He pitched like an ace, walking one batter in 16 innings, showing he still has the ability to dominate beyond what any rational Fantasy owner could expect from a member of his staff.

So at this point, I'm willing to call Vazquez's June and July nothing more than a slump and assume he'll get back to pitching like he did in April and May, when he posted a 3.43 ERA.

Hey, I'll take any excuse to get all those strikeouts in my lineup.

Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays

Some prospects break out gradually, making small, measurable bits of progress in a span of three or four seasons.

Others break out suddenly, as if something clicks overnight. Maybe they finally get the motivation they need, such as a demotion or a benching. Maybe they just eat a good egg salad sandwich. But for whatever reason, they turn the corner and instantly become players worth using in Fantasy.

Lind belongs in that latter group.

Because he certainly looked like a dud earlier in the season, going 1-for-19 during a five-game stretch in late April and early May. You could simply point to the small sample size as the culprit, sure, but he didn't look much better in 290 at-bats last season.

All that changed in late June, when the Blue Jays called him back up from the minor leagues and named him their everyday left fielder. Suddenly, his major-league numbers began to mirror his minor-league numbers. Specifically, he's hit .329 (53-for-167) with eight home runs since that day.

Will it ever stop? Yo, I don't know. It looked like it might early in August, when he hit only .231 (9-for-39) over the first 11 games, but then he bounced back with three home runs in his last five games going into Monday. So not only did he survive his first slump, he emerged from it even more powerful than before.

He doesn't walk enough, but he doesn't strike out much for a young guy either. And he has already shown more consistency than some of his peers, including super prospect Jay Bruce. In fact, I'd rather have Lind than Bruce for the rest of this season. Yeah, I said it.

And yet Lind remains unowned in 55 percent of Fantasy leagues. Time for that to change.

Justin Duchscherer, SP, Athletics

Duchscherer had a memorable run early this season, one filled with an unprecedented rise to Fantasy stardom, an All-Star appearance and more than enough mispronunciations of his last name.

But it's over now, and you can't even argue. Statistically speaking, it is. During those magical 17 starts to open the season, that stretch that made him known as a Duchscherer-thing, he had one game where he allowed as many as three earned runs. That's it -- one. In his last four starts, he has three.

See? Over.

You had to expect the innings to catch up to him at some point after he spent the last four seasons in the bullpen. Or shoot, you had to just expect his luck would even out. He's not Greg Maddux, which is how he looked through those first 17 starts, posting a 1.87 ERA. Besides, not even Maddux could win games for the Athletics in their current sorry state. They've gone 5-23 since the All-Star break.

But just because I acknowledge Duchscherer's run is over doesn't mean I think you should cut him. In fact, I think he remains a must-own, just not a must-start. His four latest starts, apart from one against the Rangers, haven't looked terrible. They just haven't looked good enough for a non-strikeout pitcher to maintain his title of Fantasy ace.

Think of him now as the kind of pitcher who can supplement your Fantasy staff instead of leading it.

Jed Lowrie, SS, Red Sox

Lowrie always had this kind of potential. He just needed an opportunity.

He finally got one when Julio Lugo went on the DL because of a strained left quadriceps -- well, that and after the Red Sox got their fill of Alex Cora, which tends to take a lot longer than it should.

And the best part is Lowrie hasn't even shown any power yet -- at least not in terms of home runs. He clearly has it, though, as evidenced by his .492 slugging percentage. Before the end of the year, some of those balls hit into the gaps will start clearing the fence.

And even if they don't, as long as he continues to hit doubles and triples, he'll accumulate plenty of RBI batting seventh, behind all the on-base types up and down the Boston batting order. His current rate of RBI puts him on pace for 136 in a 600 at-bat season.

Would he honestly sustain that pace over 600 at-bats? No, he probably wouldn't, and he might not sustain his .318 batting average either. But since he plays such a weak position, he could emerge as a must-start in Fantasy even if he falls a little short.

If he remains unowned in your league and you don't have Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, pick him up. He might end up starting for you before season's end, making the same impact this year that Dustin Pedroia made last year.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins

Now, the true Uggla emerges.

That one you saw before the All-Star break? Not him. That guy was too good -- a stud, even.

Uggla is not a stud. He's a .260 hitter with better-than-average power for his position whose strikeouts make him more trouble than he's worth in certain Head-to-Head leagues.

After he began the season scoring at least 20 Fantasy points in six of the first 12 weeks, he's gone eight straight weeks without scoring even 10. In August, he's batting .193 with a .566 OPS.

Granted, he gets streaky, so he won't hit this poorly the rest of the season. But he needed this recent cold streak just to normalize his stats from the first three months of the season -- a hot streak that seemed a bit too sustained when compared to his long-term history. In other words, the last two months haven't set him back or put him "behind schedule," statistically speaking, so you can't expect an equal and opposite hot streak as compensation.

So does all this talk of streaks mean you should bench Uggla? No, and that's precisely the problem. He's still a top-10 second baseman, and he'll still finish as a top-10 second baseman. You probably got the best you'll get from him earlier in the season, sure, but he could still have another outburst or two before the end of the season -- enough to set him apart from whatever you could find on waivers. Yes, if you own Uggla, you have to stick with him, for better or worse.

Maybe now you'll know better than to target him as your starting second baseman next season.

Willy Aybar, 3B, Rays

Aybar has always fascinated me for reasons I can't fully express. He just seems like one of those players who'd surprise with everyday at-bats.

Well, with Evan Longoria sidelined with a fractured wrist, now he has his chance.

And already with less than two weeks of at-bats, some of his positive characteristics have begun to show. He has underrated power, as evidenced by his three home runs in the last week, and his 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests he won't ever have a serious slump.

With everyday at-bats, I could see him developing into a .280 hitter with the power to hit 15-20 home runs.

No, those numbers don't have as much appeal as they would if he still qualified at second base or shortstop, but for a corner infielder in AL-only leagues, you could do a lot worse than Aybar. Longoria might have to miss a few weeks still.

Hanging Slider This guy looks like a Slider, but not so fast! His recent performance might cause you to misinterpret his Fantasy appeal.

Raul Ibanez, OF, Mariners

Maybe your offense had fallen on hard times. Maybe you had relied on Chipper Jones all season or Adam LaRoche as your July sparkplug and had no replacement on hand when they went on the DL. Maybe with no other direction to turn, you decided to plug Ibanez into your starting lineup, just on a whim.

Maybe you haven't lost a game since.

Sounds conceivable enough, right? Ibanez has eight of his 19 home runs since the All-Star break and a .413 batting average in August. Those numbers have the potential to carry a Fantasy team, and they came almost out of nowhere.

Which is reason enough to make you suspicious, particularly coming from a 36-year-old.

Ibanez did this exact same thing on a smaller scale in April. He hit five home runs in the span of a week and then hit three over the next two months. So you have to assume the hot hitting will end. It'll end abruptly, and it might not come back.

So as much as Ibanez looks like he belongs in the top 40 Fantasy outfielders, he doesn't. After this latest flirtation with greatness ends, he'll resume his place in Fantasy purgatory as an outfielder good enough to roster, but not good enough to play.

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Roy Oswalt
Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
5:11 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.

Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Matt LaPorta
Indians still belive in LaPorta
Matt LaPorta, 1B, CLE
5:39 PM
News: The Plain Dealer reports Indians GM Chris Antonetti said he reached out to 1B Matt LaPorta and his agent, Scott Boras, before he signed Casey Kotchman this offseason. "I think most importantly the message I communicated to Matt is that we as an organization continue to believe in him," Antonetti said. "We still think he has a chance to be a very good major league player. But our focus is to trying to win this year. And trying do everything we can to do that. And he's going to have to come to camp to compete for a spot. If that doesn't happen, he may to continue to develop in Triple-A. Most importantly, we continue to committed as an organization to him and to his develop."
Analysis: Antonetti added that the team's hitting coach worked for four days this offseason with LaPorta on his swing and fundamentals. The signing of Kotchman could also be a way to motivate the former first-round pick, who hasn't quite lived up to expectations as a major leaguer. Track LaPorta's progress this spring, but he is shaping up to be at best an AL-only Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Hanley Ramirez
Hanley the 'happiest man on earth'?
Hanley Ramirez, SS, MIA
5:34 PM
News: Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen talked with 790 AM in Miami on Monday about Hanley Ramirez, who is moving to third base after the signing of Jose Reyes. "If If I was Hanley, I'd be the happiest man on earth," Guillen said. "You got Boni (Emilio Bonifacio) and Reyes in front of you and you have (Mike) Stanton behind you."
Analysis: The early reports have been positive regarding Ramirez's recovery from surgery to repair his left shoulder. He might not have been overly happy initially that he had to change positions, but Guillen is right. The addition of Reyes will mean more RBI chances for Ramirez, who could be a top bounce-back candidate in 2012. Continue to target Ramirez in the early rounds of all Fantasy formats.

Emilio Bonifacio
Bonifacio was always the choice in CF
Emilio Bonifacio, SS, MIA
5:28 PM
News: The news broke Monday that OF Yoenis Cespedes agreed to a four-year contract with the A's, turning down the Marlins offer. Cespedes signing with the A's means Emilio Bonifacio will start in center field for Miami. However, manager Ozzie Guillen said that was going to be the case all along. "Bonifacio would've have been my center fielder no matter if Cespedes was here," Guillen told 790 AM in Miami. "If Cespedes (came) to the Marlins, he would have had to make the ballclub."
Analysis: Finally, Guillen steps up in front of this situation and stands behind Bonifacio as an everyday player. He absolutely deserved it after the season he put together in 2011. The 26-year-old took a big step forward last year as both a hitter and a base-stealer and is a viable starter in mixed Fantasy leagues at either shortstop or third base. He's worth targeting with a middle-round pick on Draft Day.

Scott Rolen
Rolen 'swinging bat really well'
Scott Rolen, 3B, CIN
5:21 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said 3B Scott Rolen (shoulder) should be full-go for the start of spring training. “I talked to his offseason trainer a 10 days or two weeks ago. He said Scott is 100 percent and swinging the bat really well," Jocketty said.
Analysis: Rolen had shoulder surgery in August and his recovery seems to be going well. While Jocketty expects Rolen to have a productive season, we have to look at the facts. He will be 37 years old in 2012 and hasn't played more than 133 games the last five seasons. Rolen will sit at times in 2012, whether it is by design or because of injury. He did hit 20 homers in 2010, but Fantasy owners can't bank on that come Draft Day. Rolen is at best a late-round, injury-risk Fantasy option.

Aroldis Chapman
Chapman 'healthy and feels good'
Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN
5:18 PM
News: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said pitcher Aroldis Chapman is at the team's spring complex in Arizona and throwing. “He’s healthy and feels good,” Jocketty said.
Analysis: The plan is for the Reds to stretch out Chapman as a starter this spring. He isn't guaranteed a starting spot, but the Reds want to see if he can bring his electric stuff to the rotation. If Chapman can stretch out and utilize his 100 mph in the rotation, then he could end up as a very good Fantasy option. Chapman will be a player Fantasy owners will want to keep tabs on this spring. He has breakout appeal written all over him.

 
 
 
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