Sliders: You've worked too hard to stop now
By Scott White | Fantasy Writer Follow ScottFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Are you ready for some football?
Well, knock it off.
You still have baseball to do, mister -- four solid weeks of it -- so until you come home with a championship trophy in your hand, no football for you.
OK, maybe a little football -- just enough to keep Dave Richard off my back. You can have your little draft and set your little lineup and check your little box scores Sunday night to make all your little waiver claims, but then ... back to work!
I understand it's natural and even excusable to divert some of your attention from Fantasy Baseball this time of year -- hey, we all do it -- but putting your team on auto-pilot now would spell Fantasy suicide. And in the immortal words of my high school guidance counselor, we've come too far to commit suicide.
Grade A advice, baby.
Because even if you think you play Fantasy Baseball with a bunch of Fantasy Football fanatics, chances are someone in your league plays only baseball. You probably know the type -- never actually played a sport, in it for the math, scrawny, breathes through his mouth, doesn't make eye contact when he talks to you.
He probably looks a substantial bit like me.
If you ignore your Fantasy Baseball league, this guy will reign rampant on the waiver wire and run everyone else into the ground. And that's just embarrassing. I mean, he can't even look you in the eye.
So just stay focused, keep your eye on the prize, push through this one month of painful overlap and emerge victorious.
And with that little pep talk, I give you at least one more rendition of Sliders to help you begin your playoff journey making the right decisions.
Tally-ho.
Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.
Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies
Here it is: another Werth sighting.
Hardly a week can pass without the sabermetrics-friendly outfielder finding his way into some Fantasy writer's column. Even in this one, he's appeared two or three times already.
And the reasons should be obvious by now. He gets on base and hits for power, posting a better OPS than Josh Hamilton. He has 21 home runs, and in an age in baseball when some of the game's more notable power hitters -- Matt Holliday (24), Vladimir Guerrero (23), Carlos Beltran (21), Justin Morneau (21) and Troy Glaus (21) -- have fewer than 25 home runs, 21 from a part-time player is more than a little good.
Of course, he only ended up a part-time player because he does noticeably more damage against left-handed pitchers. So whenever an opportunity opened for him to play every day -- be it a Shane Victorino injury or, in this case, a Geoff Jenkins injury -- the Phillies closed it as soon as they could.
But not this time. This time, he means business ... I think.
Since Jenkins went on the DL with a strained hip flexor on Aug. 23, Werth is hitting .382 (13-for-34) with four home runs, showing he doesn't just crawl into a hole and die whenever a right-hander takes the mound. Maybe some of his ratios suffer in the process, but the accumulation of numbers and consistency of at-bats improve his Fantasy value overall, particularly in Head-to-Head leagues.
As long as he keeps playing every day, you want Werth active in any league where you can start four or five outfielders. Don't let him go unowned right now.
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
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| If Chipper Jones was ever healthy for a full year again, he'd be a monster. (US Presswire) |
Let's start with the basics: Chipper Jones has become a different player in the second half.
He entered Tuesday's game batting .302 with two home runs since the All-Star break and the kind of OPS (.821) that would make Shin-Soo Choo not worth your trouble. His batting average has dipped from .393 at the beginning of July to its current mark of .358, and he hasn't scored as many as 15 points in a standard Head-to-Head scoring period since Week 14, which came two weeks before the All-Star game.
So players get cold, you say? I know this as well as you do, but consider the fact he's had a sore right elbow since before he spent time on the DL with a hamstring injury, meaning a period of extended rest didn't do it any good. Just how sore is the elbow? Well, to use his words -- and I didn't jazz this up for dramatic effect -- "It makes you want to cry."
I'll be the first to admit I don't know real pain. I've never broken a major bone, passed a kidney stone or undergone surgery without anesthesia. And I've certainly never given birth. But I can't think of too many sensations so excruciating they force me to weep in agony.
And that's just me. We're talking Chipper Jones here. He could pummel me, even with that hurt elbow.
That said, I know he hit a home run Saturday -- the same day he complained about the elbow. I'm also fully convinced he's played the last two or three seasons on one healthy foot. The guy's just good. He can do things the average athlete can't. But at some point, all those injuries have to exceed even his limit, and I think we've reached that point with a hurt elbow, which is pretty crucial to a player's swing. Just ask, um, Albert Pujols.
OK, don't ask him.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians
Where's Denny Neagle when you need him?
I only ask because the man can make his mouth sound like a train whistle, a talent I find particularly amusing. Also, using him as a prop would deflect attention from my next line -- one so disgustingly corny it'll probably be the last line you read in this column. Ready?
All aboard the Shin-Soo Choo train!
That's right: Everybody, everywhere, in leagues far and wide, needs to jump on this little engine that could and ride him all the way to Titletown.
It's not getting any better, is it?
Let's just talk numbers. Choo entered Tuesday with five home runs in his last 11 games, bringing his OPS to a better-than-Josh-Hamilton .896 and earning the right to play against both right-handers and left-handers. And while this power surge obviously won't last -- at least not to this magnitude -- it doesn't exactly come out of nowhere. He frequently hit double-digit homers in the minors and, with his keen batting eye, long projected as an OPS specialist in the majors, though one probably more in the mold of Bobby Abreu than Lance Berkman. No longer sidetracked by injury and insufficient opportunity, he finally has his chance to shine and has capitalized on it so far. And even if he slows down to the point that his OPS drops to .850, which is certainly plausible, he still deserves a roster spot in more than 14 percent of Fantasy leagues.
If nothing else, you can bet you'll find him on my list of sleepers going into next season.
Jorge Campillo and Jair Jurrjens, SPs, Braves
As if the Braves needed more misfortune piled on their already disastrous season -- one that includes season-ending injuries to their top three starting pitchers, the trading of Mark Teixeira at the deadline and the ongoing aches and pains of their All-Star third baseman -- two of their more successful starting pitchers have come unwound over the season's final weeks.
And wouldn't you know it? They're both rookies.
They reached their career highs in innings pitched and immediately turned sour, which is the kind of smug assumption from a Fantasy writer that makes you want to roll your eyes. Surely, it doesn't fit for everybody, but it applies to enough pitchers with enough consistency that when it happens to one of your guys, you always feel like you should have known better.
The case of surpassing the innings threshold certainly applies for Jurrjens, who at age 22, looked like a future ace through four months of the season, posting a 3.06 ERA. But in his last three starts, with a depleted offense behind him, he fell apart, allowing an 8.36 ERA.
As for Campillo, a 30-year-old rookie who pitched over his head ... well, he might have just pitched over his head. His 3.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP would likely still look appealing if you didn't know he allowed five earned runs in four of his last five starts, posting a 7.76 ERA over that stretch.
Of the two, Jurrjens still deserves a roster spot. He has better upside and more potential to rebound. But neither of these guys deserves to start down the stretch. They simply risk doing your team more harm than good.
Denard Span, OF, Twins
At first glance, you might write off Span as a slap-hitting outfielder who doesn't steal enough bases to make him worth your while.
But if you restrict yourself to first glance, you overlook his far more relevant attribute: He scored oodles in oodles of Fantasy points.
Define oodles, you say? For simplicity's sake, let's examine the last four weeks. In standard Head-to-Head leagues, only 22 hitters have outscored Span over that, um, span, none of them named David Wright, Grady Sizemore or Hanley Ramirez.
So how does the 24-year-old rookie do it?
Well, for starters, he's not a slap hitter. He doesn't hit many home runs, no -- at least not yet -- but he hits enough doubles and triples to slug just a shade under .450.
Hunter Pence, with his 20 home runs, only wishes he could slug so well.
Span also doesn't strike out, at least not any more than he walks, and in Head-to-Head leagues, if you can find a player whose walks negate his strikeouts, you can bet he's undervalued. Hey, people only care about bombs and steals.
Considering Span has accomplished all these Fantasy feats with a relatively tame .301 batting average, I can't think of any halfway objective reason why he won't sustain this pace. Surprisingly, more Fantasy owners have caught on to him than the other two outfielders mentioned in this piece, but if for some reason, someone doesn't already have him up and active in one of your leagues, don't let him slip away.
Hanging Slider This guy looks like a Slider, but not so fast! His recent performance might cause you to misinterpret his Fantasy appeal.
Chris Dickerson, OF, Reds
You've probably seen Dickerson's numbers -- the home runs, the stolen bases, the slugging percentage that tops anyone with at least 10 at-bats.
And he entered Tuesday with a relatively whopping 68 at-bats.
Maybe you put in a claim for him. Maybe you at least thought about it. Who could blame you? The guy looks like the Jimmy Rollins of the outfield.
But he also has so many red flags draped over him you might confuse him for the new team mascot.
First of all, he didn't reach the majors until age 26. Nobody does that -- nobody good. Well, and Mike Aviles.
So you have to consider why it happened, and the numbers pretty much tell the story. Yes, he showed the ability to hit a few homers and steal a few bases in the minors, but his batting average? Pedestrian. His OPS? Pedestrian. His strikeouts? Oh finally, we have an eye-popping number. Too bad it's one we don't want.
So far throughout his major-league career and much of his minor-league career, Dickerson has struck out once every three at-bats. Ryan Howard can get away with that. So can Adam Dunn. But for most players, a 1-to-3 strikeout-to-at-bat ratio stamps a one-way ticket out of baseball.
Of course, I don't mean to say Dickerson will whiff his way to the unemployment line, but he might offer your Fantasy team as much as Mike Cameron -- not the Cameron we saw in August (have you seen Cameron's August?), but the one we see every other month of the year. Does that make him useful? Yes, but not worth your time in probably 50 percent of Fantasy leagues.
Change-up I recently predicted incorrectly on this guy and need to make a revision.
Yusmeiro Petit, SP, Diamondbacks
Don't get me wrong: Petit still has everything I said he did -- upside, a pedigree, the potential to become a stable part of the Diamondbacks rotation for years to come. But I don't want him on my Fantasy team anymore -- not in Head-to-Head leagues, anyway.
Why? Because the Diamondbacks didn't give him a single start last week. Why? Because they had an off day Thursday.
Oh, so that's the way they intend to play it, huh?
Petit isn't a stable part of their rotation, a No. 5 guy considered equal to the first four. He's that other kind of fifth starter -- the extra guy, the one a team shuffles its rotation to avoid.
For an underrated talent, you could overlook that kind of instability earlier in the season, when you figured a team still had time to come to its senses. But this is September, and in Head-to-Head leagues, this is the playoffs -- a time when one boneheaded decision can ruin five months of careful management.
Don't make Petit that boneheaded decision.
Sure, the Diamondbacks have only two more off days remaining this season, meaning Petit should miss only one more start, maybe two. But what if they find themselves in a situation where their scheduled starter leaves after two innings or a 90-minute rain delay? Who do you think they'll use to eat those middle innings -- Brandon Webb?
No, they'll turn to the "extra guy," to Petit, and patch his rotation spot later with someone like Max Scherzer. Meanwhile, you get zero starts from Petit and 3 1/3 worthless innings of middle relief.
So Petit, for all his talent, doesn't seem worth your trouble right now. He looks like a nice sleeper candidate for next season, but if you take him for a test drive this time of year, he might just blow up in your face.
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.