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Scott White

Sliders: You've worked too hard to stop now

By | Fantasy Writer


Are you ready for some football?

Well, knock it off.

You still have baseball to do, mister -- four solid weeks of it -- so until you come home with a championship trophy in your hand, no football for you.

OK, maybe a little football -- just enough to keep Dave Richard off my back. You can have your little draft and set your little lineup and check your little box scores Sunday night to make all your little waiver claims, but then ... back to work!

I understand it's natural and even excusable to divert some of your attention from Fantasy Baseball this time of year -- hey, we all do it -- but putting your team on auto-pilot now would spell Fantasy suicide. And in the immortal words of my high school guidance counselor, we've come too far to commit suicide.

Grade A advice, baby.

Because even if you think you play Fantasy Baseball with a bunch of Fantasy Football fanatics, chances are someone in your league plays only baseball. You probably know the type -- never actually played a sport, in it for the math, scrawny, breathes through his mouth, doesn't make eye contact when he talks to you.

He probably looks a substantial bit like me.

If you ignore your Fantasy Baseball league, this guy will reign rampant on the waiver wire and run everyone else into the ground. And that's just embarrassing. I mean, he can't even look you in the eye.

So just stay focused, keep your eye on the prize, push through this one month of painful overlap and emerge victorious.

And with that little pep talk, I give you at least one more rendition of Sliders to help you begin your playoff journey making the right decisions.

Tally-ho.

Sliders These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.

Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies

Here it is: another Werth sighting.

Hardly a week can pass without the sabermetrics-friendly outfielder finding his way into some Fantasy writer's column. Even in this one, he's appeared two or three times already.

And the reasons should be obvious by now. He gets on base and hits for power, posting a better OPS than Josh Hamilton. He has 21 home runs, and in an age in baseball when some of the game's more notable power hitters -- Matt Holliday (24), Vladimir Guerrero (23), Carlos Beltran (21), Justin Morneau (21) and Troy Glaus (21) -- have fewer than 25 home runs, 21 from a part-time player is more than a little good.

Of course, he only ended up a part-time player because he does noticeably more damage against left-handed pitchers. So whenever an opportunity opened for him to play every day -- be it a Shane Victorino injury or, in this case, a Geoff Jenkins injury -- the Phillies closed it as soon as they could.

But not this time. This time, he means business ... I think.

Since Jenkins went on the DL with a strained hip flexor on Aug. 23, Werth is hitting .382 (13-for-34) with four home runs, showing he doesn't just crawl into a hole and die whenever a right-hander takes the mound. Maybe some of his ratios suffer in the process, but the accumulation of numbers and consistency of at-bats improve his Fantasy value overall, particularly in Head-to-Head leagues.

As long as he keeps playing every day, you want Werth active in any league where you can start four or five outfielders. Don't let him go unowned right now.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves

If Chipper Jones was ever healthy for a full year again, he'd be a monster. (US Presswire)  
If Chipper Jones was ever healthy for a full year again, he'd be a monster. (US Presswire)  
Why would you ever bench a player in hot contention for the NL batting title -- especially when he has power to boot?

Let's start with the basics: Chipper Jones has become a different player in the second half.

He entered Tuesday's game batting .302 with two home runs since the All-Star break and the kind of OPS (.821) that would make Shin-Soo Choo not worth your trouble. His batting average has dipped from .393 at the beginning of July to its current mark of .358, and he hasn't scored as many as 15 points in a standard Head-to-Head scoring period since Week 14, which came two weeks before the All-Star game.

So players get cold, you say? I know this as well as you do, but consider the fact he's had a sore right elbow since before he spent time on the DL with a hamstring injury, meaning a period of extended rest didn't do it any good. Just how sore is the elbow? Well, to use his words -- and I didn't jazz this up for dramatic effect -- "It makes you want to cry."

I'll be the first to admit I don't know real pain. I've never broken a major bone, passed a kidney stone or undergone surgery without anesthesia. And I've certainly never given birth. But I can't think of too many sensations so excruciating they force me to weep in agony.

And that's just me. We're talking Chipper Jones here. He could pummel me, even with that hurt elbow.

That said, I know he hit a home run Saturday -- the same day he complained about the elbow. I'm also fully convinced he's played the last two or three seasons on one healthy foot. The guy's just good. He can do things the average athlete can't. But at some point, all those injuries have to exceed even his limit, and I think we've reached that point with a hurt elbow, which is pretty crucial to a player's swing. Just ask, um, Albert Pujols.

OK, don't ask him.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians

Where's Denny Neagle when you need him?

I only ask because the man can make his mouth sound like a train whistle, a talent I find particularly amusing. Also, using him as a prop would deflect attention from my next line -- one so disgustingly corny it'll probably be the last line you read in this column. Ready?

All aboard the Shin-Soo Choo train!

That's right: Everybody, everywhere, in leagues far and wide, needs to jump on this little engine that could and ride him all the way to Titletown.

It's not getting any better, is it?

Let's just talk numbers. Choo entered Tuesday with five home runs in his last 11 games, bringing his OPS to a better-than-Josh-Hamilton .896 and earning the right to play against both right-handers and left-handers. And while this power surge obviously won't last -- at least not to this magnitude -- it doesn't exactly come out of nowhere. He frequently hit double-digit homers in the minors and, with his keen batting eye, long projected as an OPS specialist in the majors, though one probably more in the mold of Bobby Abreu than Lance Berkman. No longer sidetracked by injury and insufficient opportunity, he finally has his chance to shine and has capitalized on it so far. And even if he slows down to the point that his OPS drops to .850, which is certainly plausible, he still deserves a roster spot in more than 14 percent of Fantasy leagues.

If nothing else, you can bet you'll find him on my list of sleepers going into next season.

Jorge Campillo and Jair Jurrjens, SPs, Braves

As if the Braves needed more misfortune piled on their already disastrous season -- one that includes season-ending injuries to their top three starting pitchers, the trading of Mark Teixeira at the deadline and the ongoing aches and pains of their All-Star third baseman -- two of their more successful starting pitchers have come unwound over the season's final weeks.

And wouldn't you know it? They're both rookies.

They reached their career highs in innings pitched and immediately turned sour, which is the kind of smug assumption from a Fantasy writer that makes you want to roll your eyes. Surely, it doesn't fit for everybody, but it applies to enough pitchers with enough consistency that when it happens to one of your guys, you always feel like you should have known better.

The case of surpassing the innings threshold certainly applies for Jurrjens, who at age 22, looked like a future ace through four months of the season, posting a 3.06 ERA. But in his last three starts, with a depleted offense behind him, he fell apart, allowing an 8.36 ERA.

As for Campillo, a 30-year-old rookie who pitched over his head ... well, he might have just pitched over his head. His 3.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP would likely still look appealing if you didn't know he allowed five earned runs in four of his last five starts, posting a 7.76 ERA over that stretch.

Of the two, Jurrjens still deserves a roster spot. He has better upside and more potential to rebound. But neither of these guys deserves to start down the stretch. They simply risk doing your team more harm than good.

Denard Span, OF, Twins

At first glance, you might write off Span as a slap-hitting outfielder who doesn't steal enough bases to make him worth your while.

But if you restrict yourself to first glance, you overlook his far more relevant attribute: He scored oodles in oodles of Fantasy points.

Define oodles, you say? For simplicity's sake, let's examine the last four weeks. In standard Head-to-Head leagues, only 22 hitters have outscored Span over that, um, span, none of them named David Wright, Grady Sizemore or Hanley Ramirez.

So how does the 24-year-old rookie do it?

Well, for starters, he's not a slap hitter. He doesn't hit many home runs, no -- at least not yet -- but he hits enough doubles and triples to slug just a shade under .450.

Hunter Pence, with his 20 home runs, only wishes he could slug so well.

Span also doesn't strike out, at least not any more than he walks, and in Head-to-Head leagues, if you can find a player whose walks negate his strikeouts, you can bet he's undervalued. Hey, people only care about bombs and steals.

Considering Span has accomplished all these Fantasy feats with a relatively tame .301 batting average, I can't think of any halfway objective reason why he won't sustain this pace. Surprisingly, more Fantasy owners have caught on to him than the other two outfielders mentioned in this piece, but if for some reason, someone doesn't already have him up and active in one of your leagues, don't let him slip away.

Hanging Slider This guy looks like a Slider, but not so fast! His recent performance might cause you to misinterpret his Fantasy appeal.

Chris Dickerson, OF, Reds

You've probably seen Dickerson's numbers -- the home runs, the stolen bases, the slugging percentage that tops anyone with at least 10 at-bats.

And he entered Tuesday with a relatively whopping 68 at-bats.

Maybe you put in a claim for him. Maybe you at least thought about it. Who could blame you? The guy looks like the Jimmy Rollins of the outfield.

But he also has so many red flags draped over him you might confuse him for the new team mascot.

First of all, he didn't reach the majors until age 26. Nobody does that -- nobody good. Well, and Mike Aviles.

So you have to consider why it happened, and the numbers pretty much tell the story. Yes, he showed the ability to hit a few homers and steal a few bases in the minors, but his batting average? Pedestrian. His OPS? Pedestrian. His strikeouts? Oh finally, we have an eye-popping number. Too bad it's one we don't want.

So far throughout his major-league career and much of his minor-league career, Dickerson has struck out once every three at-bats. Ryan Howard can get away with that. So can Adam Dunn. But for most players, a 1-to-3 strikeout-to-at-bat ratio stamps a one-way ticket out of baseball.

Of course, I don't mean to say Dickerson will whiff his way to the unemployment line, but he might offer your Fantasy team as much as Mike Cameron -- not the Cameron we saw in August (have you seen Cameron's August?), but the one we see every other month of the year. Does that make him useful? Yes, but not worth your time in probably 50 percent of Fantasy leagues.

Change-up I recently predicted incorrectly on this guy and need to make a revision.

Yusmeiro Petit, SP, Diamondbacks

Don't get me wrong: Petit still has everything I said he did -- upside, a pedigree, the potential to become a stable part of the Diamondbacks rotation for years to come. But I don't want him on my Fantasy team anymore -- not in Head-to-Head leagues, anyway.

Why? Because the Diamondbacks didn't give him a single start last week. Why? Because they had an off day Thursday.

Oh, so that's the way they intend to play it, huh?

Petit isn't a stable part of their rotation, a No. 5 guy considered equal to the first four. He's that other kind of fifth starter -- the extra guy, the one a team shuffles its rotation to avoid.

For an underrated talent, you could overlook that kind of instability earlier in the season, when you figured a team still had time to come to its senses. But this is September, and in Head-to-Head leagues, this is the playoffs -- a time when one boneheaded decision can ruin five months of careful management.

Don't make Petit that boneheaded decision.

Sure, the Diamondbacks have only two more off days remaining this season, meaning Petit should miss only one more start, maybe two. But what if they find themselves in a situation where their scheduled starter leaves after two innings or a 90-minute rain delay? Who do you think they'll use to eat those middle innings -- Brandon Webb?

No, they'll turn to the "extra guy," to Petit, and patch his rotation spot later with someone like Max Scherzer. Meanwhile, you get zero starts from Petit and 3 1/3 worthless innings of middle relief.

So Petit, for all his talent, doesn't seem worth your trouble right now. He looks like a nice sleeper candidate for next season, but if you take him for a test drive this time of year, he might just blow up in your face.

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.

Josh Hamilton
Hamilton expected to arrive on time
Josh Hamilton, LF, TEX
12:55 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers GM Jon Daniels said he expects Josh Hamilton to report for spring training on time despite a recent revelation that Hamilton had a relapse in his quest to stay sober. Hamilton's admission led to a meeting with doctors associated with an after-care program run by MLB and the players association. The doctors have appeared to eliminate the option of sending Hamilton to rehab. Position players for the Rangers don't have to report until Feb. 25. "His health and his family are the priorities. We're not going to pre-empt that for anything about a contract," Daniels said about contract extension talks regarding Hamilton.
Analysis: Because of his recent relapse, Hamilton's prospects for a multi-year deal with Texas may be jeopardized for the time being. Though Hamilton has had to grapple with his addictions during his time with the Rangers, they haven't impacted his on-the-field performance. Hamilton remains an early-round target in all Fantasy formats.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

James Paxton
Paxton working on changeup
James Paxton, RP, SEA
1:21 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners SP prospect James Paxton said he is working a changeup into his repertoire. "It's something I've been working on for a while and that they figure is going to help me by adding another weapon,'' Paxton said. Paxton has been invited to major-league camp, but he appears to be a long shot to make the opening-day roster. "I'm just honored to be invited here,'' Paxton said. "This is a fantastic opportunity and I'm going to try to learn as much as I can.''
Analysis: After pitching in independent ball for a year, Paxton finally joined the minors in 2011. He had a successful run in Class A and Double-A. He went 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts. More importantly, he struck out 12.4 batters per nine innings. If Paxton has an impressive spring and gets off to a fast start in the minors, then he might arrive in the majors in 2012. However, he remains more of a long-term Fantasy keeper until he gets closer to his MLB debut.

Koji Uehara
Uehara pitched through elbow issue?
Koji Uehara, RP, TEX
1:02 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers RP Koji Uehara hinted on his blog that he received an injection into his right elbow last season. Uehara also posted that he threw 100 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday before departing Japan for spring training.
Analysis: Uehara has his history of injury issues, but he pitched for the Orioles and Rangers last season and neither team hinted at elbow problems. Uehara in fact posted a career-best 2.35 ERA in 65 outings. The Rangers are shopping Uehara because of a plethora of bullpen arms. Uehara will have value in deeper Rotisserie leagues for his low ERA, low WHIP and high strikeout rate. If he goes somewhere that needs a closer, his stock would rise, but he would still be a low-end option.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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