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Scott White

Offseason Extra: Top keepers for 2009

By | Fantasy Writer


If you like him so much, you can keep him.

Ah, you have to love Fantasy leagues that give you that option. When during the course of the season, you get so attached to a player you can't possibly dream of facing next year without him, instead of spending sleepless nights devising impossible strategies to make him fall to you again, you can relax, kick up your feet, and know you already have him in your back pocket.

Of course, you might not always want him there. You might have to give up too much to keep him, or you might need to keep someone else instead. With all the endless possibilities, the process can sometimes get a bit confusing -- or even overwhelming.

Well, worry no more, because I have for you the perfect starting point: a list of the top 10 keepers entering 2009.

Keep in mind this list focuses on bang for the buck, meaning it applies mostly to leagues that force owners to give up something to keep the players they want. If you play in such a league and want to keep a player, you usually have to forfeit whatever draft pick or auction dollars you used to acquire that player the previous season. Therefore, a second look at this past spring's projected auction values will help pinpoint which players you can keep at a discounted rate.

The key word is value.

For those leagues where everyone can just keep the best players on his roster without forfeiting any draft picks or dollars in return, this list would look substantially different (and virtually identical to the player rankings, I might add).

But enough introductory chatter. I'm beginning to feel listless.

10. Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox ($8) At $8, Youkilis might seem relatively overpriced when another corner infielder, Aubrey Huff, had almost identical numbers for $6 cheaper. But as much as anything else in a keeper, you want security, and Youkilis provides more than $6 worth. At least he's followed a steady progression throughout his career, getting better and better each year before exploding with a .312 batting average and 29 home runs in 2008. Huff's numbers have bounced all over the place. He could maintain his .304 batting average and 32 home runs from this year -- he looked like he would back in 2003 -- but he could also regress to that .260, 20-homer hitter we saw from 2005 to 2007 who doesn't deserve much more than a $2 bid. And while the difference between $8 and $2 might seem pretty substantial at first, try looking at it from a different perspective: If Youkilis went for $25 in next year's draft, would the guy who grabbed Huff for $19 really feel like he got a significantly better deal? Probably not. To me, Huff at $2 looks good, but Youkilis at $8 looks just a bit better.

9. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks ($1) ... You've probably heard this stat by now: In 2008, Drew became only the third shortstop in major-league history with 40 doubles, 10 triples and 20 home runs in the same season. Maybe you haven't heard this one, though: With a .502 slugging percentage, he trailed only Hanley Ramirez among full-time shortstops. It shouldn't come as a surprise, really. He used to slug over .700 in the low minor leagues. At age 26 going into 2009, Drew only stands to improve, and while I'd still call it a long shot at this point, him passing Jimmy Rollins in Fantasy value by the end of the season wouldn't surprise me. Would you really want to turn down that kind of potential for only $1, especially when you might have to settle for Orlando Cabrera or Edgar Renteria instead? Not me.

Chances are you paid next to nothing for Cliff Lee, so why not keep him? (US Presswire)  
Chances are you paid next to nothing for Cliff Lee, so why not keep him? (US Presswire)  
8. Cliff Lee, SP, Indians (free agent) ... Lee's 22-3 record in 2008 would seemingly make him a cinch for the No. 1 overall spot on this list, but keep in mind he only went undrafted this year because nobody envisioned him ever going 22-3. No doubt, he has established himself as reliable major-league pitcher, but his strikeout rate of 6.9 per nine innings suggests he might not dominate to quite the same degree next year. So does his 4.98 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his final three starts. Still, he'd have to fall unrealistically far to make him unworthy of a buck or two and this spot as eighth-best keeper heading into 2009.

7. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs (free agent) ... Catchers usually need a few years of major-league experience before they break out offensively. Soto didn't, tying for tops at his position with 23 home runs as a rookie, which makes his surge to Fantasy prominence at an especially weak position all the more mesmerizing. Of course, he might actually rank higher on this list if he didn't play catcher, which sounds kind of backward since I just put "plays catcher" in the "pros" column. But keep in mind catchers typically make for poor early-round investments because they have to sit so often to rest their knees. If your opponent gets six games from all his best players one week, and you get only five from one of yours (Soto), you suddenly have a disadvantage. Then again, your catcher will almost certainly outscore his. So you gain some and lose some by sticking with Soto over an equally studly player at another position -- say, one of the players ahead of him on this list -- but you lose almost nothing by keeping him outright. You have to go for it.

6. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants ($8) ... Lincecum ties Youkilis for the most expensive player on this list, but if you find yourself in the position to keep him for $8, you can't possibly let him go. In his first full big-league season this year, he practically became the best pitcher in Fantasy, blowing away everybody else with 265 strikeouts. Only C.C. Sabathia came close with 251, and he had to throw 10 complete games to get his. And Lincecum hasn't even turned 25 yet. He only stands to improve. I don't normally like to keep pitchers if I have viable alternatives because they just come with too much injury risk, but if you only need to invest $8 to secure potentially the best Fantasy pitcher in 2009, don't even think twice about it.

5. Ervin Santana, SP, Angels ($1) ... Bet you didn't expect to see this Santana listed as the best keeper among starting pitchers, but for as little as $1, you couldn't possibly justify throwing him back. In case you need a refresher in common sense, you can't possibly obtain a player for less than $1, and if you can get a potential Fantasy ace for the same Hail-Mary bid you'd otherwise place on Randy Wolf, duh, you do it. Of course, you might wonder why I rank Santana ahead of such equally low-priced pitchers as Edinson Volquez and Ryan Dempster, but if so, I think you should go look at the numbers again. Santana ranked third in baseball in strikeout rate and fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only 10 pitchers struck out 200 batters last year, and he ranked fourth among them. He flat-out dominated last year, but since he didn't serve as the ace of his own staff, his breakout went relatively unnoticed. It happened, though, and at age 25, it came at just the right time in his career to suggest it's not a fluke.

4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox ($3) ... Even though he won AL Rookie of the Year in 2007, Pedroia didn't get much attention from Fantasy owners entering 2008. He hit for a nice average and demonstrated a keen understanding of the strike zone, but so did Placido Polanco. Nothing about Pedroia hinted of greatness. He simply lacked the power and the speed that separates the elite options from the serviceable ones. But now, 17 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 54 doubles and that same stellar batting average later, we know better. In some formats this year, Pedroia actually outscored Chase Utley, who Fantasy owners once considered -- and some in denial still do consider -- insurmountable. Batting atop that loaded Red Sox lineup, he'll always score an obscene number of runs, and with his extra-base power, he'll drive in his fair share as well. At the pitiful second-base position, you can't get much better, and for $3, you don't have much reason to try.

3. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays, ($5) ... OK, everybody knew Longoria would become a stud eventually, but it happened from the moment he set foot in Tampa. His 27 home runs and 85 RBI even though he spent the first two weeks in the minors and the last month out with a broken wrist don't leave much room for doubt, and he'll only grow from there. Sure, he might struggle at times given his high strikeout rate and relative inexperience, but the fact he plays third base makes up for his few deficiencies. With the loss of Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun, the regression of Garrett Atkins and Ryan Zimmerman, and the injury concerns of Chipper Jones and Mike Lowell, the third-base position looks pretty pitiful after the first four or five names go off the board. If you already have Longoria in your back pocket, you don't have to worry about it.

2. Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers ($6) ... Hamilton showed all his years away from the game had no affect on his talent this year, breaking out as a Fantasy stud in his first season as a full-time player. Of course, he showed he hasn't quite achieved superhuman status yet, slumping to 11 home runs and a .498 slugging percentage in the second half, but his jaw-dropping performance in the Home Run Derby, when he hit 28 balls out of the park, shows just the extent of his God-given ability. He has the potential to finish first among all Fantasy outfielders, and considering you'd probably have to invest a first-round pick to get him in a standard draft, what's $6?

1. Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox (free agent) ... An OPS masher with an unusually keen batting eye in the minors, Quentin had all the makings to become a Fantasy stud before a shoulder injury left him inept during a wasted 2007 campaign. The Diamondbacks had obviously seen enough, shipping him to the White Sox in a trade hardly made out of necessity. Abandoned by one organization at age 25 and with his health still to prove, Quentin's long-term prognosis turned grim, and once the White Sox started talking like they might prefer to play Jerry Owens in the outfield instead, Fantasy owners -- including this one -- left Quentin for dead.

Bad move -- bad, bad move.

Quentin went on to have that monster breakout sooner than anyone could have expected, flashing a consistent power stroke with that same trademark plate discipline. If not for a fractured wrist at the beginning of September, he would have run away with the AL MVP, and he still finished second in home runs even though he missed one-sixth of the season. In Fantasy leagues across the world, unsuspecting owners with quick triggers on the waiver wire capitalized, and the ones that play in keeper leagues will capitalize again next year too. In terms of upside and appeal, Quentin rates right alongside Hamilton in Fantasy, but his lower price tag solidifies his place as the top keeper entering 2009.

Near misses: Jason Bay ($9), Jon Lester ($3), Edinson Volquez ($2), Aubrey Huff ($2), Ryan Dempster (FA), Nate McLouth (FA), Ryan Ludwick (FA), Alexei Ramirez (FA)

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Offseason in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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