Offseason Extra: Top keepers for 2009
By Scott White | Fantasy Writer Follow ScottFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
If you like him so much, you can keep him.
Ah, you have to love Fantasy leagues that give you that option. When during the course of the season, you get so attached to a player you can't possibly dream of facing next year without him, instead of spending sleepless nights devising impossible strategies to make him fall to you again, you can relax, kick up your feet, and know you already have him in your back pocket.
Of course, you might not always want him there. You might have to give up too much to keep him, or you might need to keep someone else instead. With all the endless possibilities, the process can sometimes get a bit confusing -- or even overwhelming.
Well, worry no more, because I have for you the perfect starting point: a list of the top 10 keepers entering 2009.
Keep in mind this list focuses on bang for the buck, meaning it applies mostly to leagues that force owners to give up something to keep the players they want. If you play in such a league and want to keep a player, you usually have to forfeit whatever draft pick or auction dollars you used to acquire that player the previous season. Therefore, a second look at this past spring's projected auction values will help pinpoint which players you can keep at a discounted rate.
The key word is value.
For those leagues where everyone can just keep the best players on his roster without forfeiting any draft picks or dollars in return, this list would look substantially different (and virtually identical to the player rankings, I might add).
But enough introductory chatter. I'm beginning to feel listless.
10. Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox ($8) At $8, Youkilis might seem relatively overpriced when another corner infielder, Aubrey Huff, had almost identical numbers for $6 cheaper. But as much as anything else in a keeper, you want security, and Youkilis provides more than $6 worth. At least he's followed a steady progression throughout his career, getting better and better each year before exploding with a .312 batting average and 29 home runs in 2008. Huff's numbers have bounced all over the place. He could maintain his .304 batting average and 32 home runs from this year -- he looked like he would back in 2003 -- but he could also regress to that .260, 20-homer hitter we saw from 2005 to 2007 who doesn't deserve much more than a $2 bid. And while the difference between $8 and $2 might seem pretty substantial at first, try looking at it from a different perspective: If Youkilis went for $25 in next year's draft, would the guy who grabbed Huff for $19 really feel like he got a significantly better deal? Probably not. To me, Huff at $2 looks good, but Youkilis at $8 looks just a bit better.
9. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks ($1) ... You've probably heard this stat by now: In 2008, Drew became only the third shortstop in major-league history with 40 doubles, 10 triples and 20 home runs in the same season. Maybe you haven't heard this one, though: With a .502 slugging percentage, he trailed only Hanley Ramirez among full-time shortstops. It shouldn't come as a surprise, really. He used to slug over .700 in the low minor leagues. At age 26 going into 2009, Drew only stands to improve, and while I'd still call it a long shot at this point, him passing Jimmy Rollins in Fantasy value by the end of the season wouldn't surprise me. Would you really want to turn down that kind of potential for only $1, especially when you might have to settle for Orlando Cabrera or Edgar Renteria instead? Not me.
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| Chances are you paid next to nothing for Cliff Lee, so why not keep him? (US Presswire) |
7. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs (free agent) ... Catchers usually need a few years of major-league experience before they break out offensively. Soto didn't, tying for tops at his position with 23 home runs as a rookie, which makes his surge to Fantasy prominence at an especially weak position all the more mesmerizing. Of course, he might actually rank higher on this list if he didn't play catcher, which sounds kind of backward since I just put "plays catcher" in the "pros" column. But keep in mind catchers typically make for poor early-round investments because they have to sit so often to rest their knees. If your opponent gets six games from all his best players one week, and you get only five from one of yours (Soto), you suddenly have a disadvantage. Then again, your catcher will almost certainly outscore his. So you gain some and lose some by sticking with Soto over an equally studly player at another position -- say, one of the players ahead of him on this list -- but you lose almost nothing by keeping him outright. You have to go for it.
6. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants ($8) ... Lincecum ties Youkilis for the most expensive player on this list, but if you find yourself in the position to keep him for $8, you can't possibly let him go. In his first full big-league season this year, he practically became the best pitcher in Fantasy, blowing away everybody else with 265 strikeouts. Only C.C. Sabathia came close with 251, and he had to throw 10 complete games to get his. And Lincecum hasn't even turned 25 yet. He only stands to improve. I don't normally like to keep pitchers if I have viable alternatives because they just come with too much injury risk, but if you only need to invest $8 to secure potentially the best Fantasy pitcher in 2009, don't even think twice about it.
5. Ervin Santana, SP, Angels ($1) ... Bet you didn't expect to see this Santana listed as the best keeper among starting pitchers, but for as little as $1, you couldn't possibly justify throwing him back. In case you need a refresher in common sense, you can't possibly obtain a player for less than $1, and if you can get a potential Fantasy ace for the same Hail-Mary bid you'd otherwise place on Randy Wolf, duh, you do it. Of course, you might wonder why I rank Santana ahead of such equally low-priced pitchers as Edinson Volquez and Ryan Dempster, but if so, I think you should go look at the numbers again. Santana ranked third in baseball in strikeout rate and fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only 10 pitchers struck out 200 batters last year, and he ranked fourth among them. He flat-out dominated last year, but since he didn't serve as the ace of his own staff, his breakout went relatively unnoticed. It happened, though, and at age 25, it came at just the right time in his career to suggest it's not a fluke.
4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox ($3) ... Even though he won AL Rookie of the Year in 2007, Pedroia didn't get much attention from Fantasy owners entering 2008. He hit for a nice average and demonstrated a keen understanding of the strike zone, but so did Placido Polanco. Nothing about Pedroia hinted of greatness. He simply lacked the power and the speed that separates the elite options from the serviceable ones. But now, 17 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 54 doubles and that same stellar batting average later, we know better. In some formats this year, Pedroia actually outscored Chase Utley, who Fantasy owners once considered -- and some in denial still do consider -- insurmountable. Batting atop that loaded Red Sox lineup, he'll always score an obscene number of runs, and with his extra-base power, he'll drive in his fair share as well. At the pitiful second-base position, you can't get much better, and for $3, you don't have much reason to try.
3. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays, ($5) ... OK, everybody knew Longoria would become a stud eventually, but it happened from the moment he set foot in Tampa. His 27 home runs and 85 RBI even though he spent the first two weeks in the minors and the last month out with a broken wrist don't leave much room for doubt, and he'll only grow from there. Sure, he might struggle at times given his high strikeout rate and relative inexperience, but the fact he plays third base makes up for his few deficiencies. With the loss of Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun, the regression of Garrett Atkins and Ryan Zimmerman, and the injury concerns of Chipper Jones and Mike Lowell, the third-base position looks pretty pitiful after the first four or five names go off the board. If you already have Longoria in your back pocket, you don't have to worry about it.
2. Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers ($6) ... Hamilton showed all his years away from the game had no affect on his talent this year, breaking out as a Fantasy stud in his first season as a full-time player. Of course, he showed he hasn't quite achieved superhuman status yet, slumping to 11 home runs and a .498 slugging percentage in the second half, but his jaw-dropping performance in the Home Run Derby, when he hit 28 balls out of the park, shows just the extent of his God-given ability. He has the potential to finish first among all Fantasy outfielders, and considering you'd probably have to invest a first-round pick to get him in a standard draft, what's $6?
1. Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox (free agent) ... An OPS masher with an unusually keen batting eye in the minors, Quentin had all the makings to become a Fantasy stud before a shoulder injury left him inept during a wasted 2007 campaign. The Diamondbacks had obviously seen enough, shipping him to the White Sox in a trade hardly made out of necessity. Abandoned by one organization at age 25 and with his health still to prove, Quentin's long-term prognosis turned grim, and once the White Sox started talking like they might prefer to play Jerry Owens in the outfield instead, Fantasy owners -- including this one -- left Quentin for dead.
Bad move -- bad, bad move.
Quentin went on to have that monster breakout sooner than anyone could have expected, flashing a consistent power stroke with that same trademark plate discipline. If not for a fractured wrist at the beginning of September, he would have run away with the AL MVP, and he still finished second in home runs even though he missed one-sixth of the season. In Fantasy leagues across the world, unsuspecting owners with quick triggers on the waiver wire capitalized, and the ones that play in keeper leagues will capitalize again next year too. In terms of upside and appeal, Quentin rates right alongside Hamilton in Fantasy, but his lower price tag solidifies his place as the top keeper entering 2009.
Near misses: Jason Bay ($9), Jon Lester ($3), Edinson Volquez ($2), Aubrey Huff ($2), Ryan Dempster (FA), Nate McLouth (FA), Ryan Ludwick (FA), Alexei Ramirez (FA)
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Offseason in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.