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Eric Mack

Highlighting top Phillies prospects for '09

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


We are breaking down the top five prospects for each organization for 2009, taking into consideration: games, at-bats, innings and major-league service time. We expect these players to have rookie status remaining heading into next year.

According to MLB rules: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)."

Note: Statistics are those at each stop in the minors this season and age represents how old they will be on opening day 2009.

Philadelphia Phillies

While most title-winning clubs have a nice mix of veterans and youth, the defending world champs didn't have a single rookie exhaust eligibility this season. They burned two of their top prospects making in-season acquisition of Joe Blanton, but a perennially weak farm system is showing just a little more strength than in years past.

1. SP Carlos Carrasco, 22

For the past two second halves, we have speculated Carrasco could be an impact call-up for the Phillies, but caution and the trade for Joe Blanton has helped buy him some time. Carrasco is capable of winning a rotation spot out of spring training, but could start the year in Triple-A. It shouldn't be long before he is called up or proving viable in all Fantasy leagues in 2009, regardless. Consider him an NL Rookie of the Year candidate and a future Fantasy ace long term.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
Double-A 7 7 4.32 20 19 1 0 0 114 2/3 109 58 55 13 45 109 1.16 .254
Triple-A 2 2 1.72 6 6 0 0 0 36 2/3 37 15 7 1 13 46 0.97 .250
Totals 9 9 3.69 26 25 1 0 0 151 1/3 146 73 62 14 58 155 1.11 .253

2. SP Joe Savery, 23

Savery was a highly regarded pitching prospect who slipped in the 2007 draft due to injury concerns. He has proven relatively healthy for a Rice product, but in his first season on a full pitcher's schedule, he struggled some -- especially in the realm of velocity. Compared to Mark Mulder by Baseball America, we figure Savery will have a better season in Year 2.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
High A 9 10 4.13 27 24 0 0 0 150 1/3 171 84 69 10 60 122 1.81 .286

3. J.A. Happ, 26

Happ really didn't look like a certain future major league starter, but that changed this season. He might even compete to be the No. 5 starter out of spring training. We don't like his ceiling compared to Carrasco's but he is certainly capable in a Kyle Kendrick way. He might even be better than Kendrick long term. Watch him for starts next season, because the Phillies have a great offense that will make their starting pitchers winners for years to come.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
Triple-A 8 7 3.60 24 23 0 0 0 135 116 58 54 14 48 151 0.90 .234
Majors 1 0 3.69 8 4 0 0 0 31 2/3 28 13 13 3 14 26 0.53 .233

4. OF Michael Taylor, 23

Taylor had a breakthrough year and should now be considered a potential star. At 6-feet-6, 250 pounds, the Stanford prospect is certainly a physical specimen. The 2007 fifth-round pick could start the year in Double-A, but we wouldn't be surprised to see him in Philly by year's end.

Team AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLUG OPS
Low A .361 67 249 40 90 12 3 10 50 138 31 43 10 3 .441 .554 .995
High A .329 65 243 36 80 27 1 9 38 136 19 46 5 6 .380 .560 .939
Totals .346 132 492 76 170 39 4 19 88 274 50 89 15 9 .412 .557 .968

5. SP Kyle Drabek, 21

Doug Drabek's son has overcome Tommy John surgery and could now position himself for his own major league career. Because of the injury and his lack of pro experience, it won't happen for him this year, but he is a solid long-term keeper option now that he has gotten his elbow ligament replacement out of the way. It is almost a good thing to get a new ligament early in your career nowadays.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
Low A 0 1 2.25 4 4 0 0 0 12 6 3 3 0 6 6 1.64 .150
Low A 1 2 2.21 4 4 0 0 0 20 1/3 11 6 5 1 6 10 1.94 .159
Totals 1 3 2.23 8 8 0 0 0 32 1/3 17 9 8 1 12 16 1.82 .156

Best of the rest: SP Antonio Bastardo, OF Greg Golson, C Lou Marson, 2B Brad Harman, SP Scott Mathieson, SP Drew Carpenter, OF Dominic Brown, C Jason Jaramillo, OF T.J. Bohn, SS Jason Donald, C Travis D'Arnaud, SP Jason Knapp, C Sabastian Valle, SP Heitor Correa, OF Zach Collier, 3B Anthony Hewitt, SP Eddy Garcia, SS Freddy Galvis, SP Tyson Brummett, SP Scott Nestor, OF Quintin Berry, SP Mike Stutes, OF Anthony Gose, SP Vance Worley, SP Jon Pettibone, SP Trevor May, 1B Jeremy Hamilton, 3B Travis Mattair, SP Julian Sampson, OF D'Arby Myers, SP Carlos Monasterios, RP Joe Bisenius, 3B Mike Cervanek, 2B Tyler Mach, SP Drew Naylor, RP R.J. Swindle and RP Les Walrond.

2008 rookies to exhaust eligibility: None.

Last year's top five here: SP Carrasco, RP Carpenter, 3B Mike Costanzo (traded to HOU for Brad Lidge and then BAL for Miguel Tejada), SP Savery and SP Mathieson.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Phillies prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.
Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.
Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.
Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.
Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.
Josh Hamilton
Hamilton expected to arrive on time
Josh Hamilton, LF, TEX
12:55 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers GM Jon Daniels said he expects Josh Hamilton to report for spring training on time despite a recent revelation that Hamilton had a relapse in his quest to stay sober. Hamilton's admission led to a meeting with doctors associated with an after-care program run by MLB and the players association. The doctors have appeared to eliminate the option of sending Hamilton to rehab. Position players for the Rangers don't have to report until Feb. 25. "His health and his family are the priorities. We're not going to pre-empt that for anything about a contract," Daniels said about contract extension talks regarding Hamilton.
Analysis: Because of his recent relapse, Hamilton's prospects for a multi-year deal with Texas may be jeopardized for the time being. Though Hamilton has had to grapple with his addictions during his time with the Rangers, they haven't impacted his on-the-field performance. Hamilton remains an early-round target in all Fantasy formats.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.
James Paxton
Paxton working on changeup
James Paxton, RP, SEA
1:21 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners SP prospect James Paxton said he is working a changeup into his repertoire. "It's something I've been working on for a while and that they figure is going to help me by adding another weapon,'' Paxton said. Paxton has been invited to major-league camp, but he appears to be a long shot to make the opening-day roster. "I'm just honored to be invited here,'' Paxton said. "This is a fantastic opportunity and I'm going to try to learn as much as I can.''
Analysis: After pitching in independent ball for a year, Paxton finally joined the minors in 2011. He had a successful run in Class A and Double-A. He went 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts. More importantly, he struck out 12.4 batters per nine innings. If Paxton has an impressive spring and gets off to a fast start in the minors, then he might arrive in the majors in 2012. However, he remains more of a long-term Fantasy keeper until he gets closer to his MLB debut.
Koji Uehara
Uehara pitched through elbow issue?
Koji Uehara, RP, TEX
1:02 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers RP Koji Uehara hinted on his blog that he received an injection into his right elbow last season. Uehara also posted that he threw 100 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday before departing Japan for spring training.
Analysis: Uehara has his history of injury issues, but he pitched for the Orioles and Rangers last season and neither team hinted at elbow problems. Uehara in fact posted a career-best 2.35 ERA in 65 outings. The Rangers are shopping Uehara because of a plethora of bullpen arms. Uehara will have value in deeper Rotisserie leagues for his low ERA, low WHIP and high strikeout rate. If he goes somewhere that needs a closer, his stock would rise, but he would still be a low-end option.
David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.
 
 
 
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