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Eric Mack

Highlighting top Nationals prospects for '09

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


We are breaking down the top five prospects for each organization for 2009, taking into consideration: games, at-bats, innings and major-league service time. We expect these players to have rookie status remaining heading into next year.

According to MLB rules: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)."

Note: Statistics are those at each stop in the minors this season and age represents how old they will be on opening day 2009.

Washington Nationals

When you pick atop the draft every year, it is pretty tough to not have a good farm system to boast about. Their pitching prospects, though, while intriguing, are tough to buy into because of the expected non-contender they will be working for. Their system's best fruit is a few years away and that is really when you will want to be finally buying into their pitchers -- when they can actually have a decent shot at winning games.

1. SP Jordan Zimmerman, 22

Zimmerman continues a meteoric rise to prominence and could be a factor in the Nationals' 2009 rotation out of spring training. If not, he should arrive in season. The problem is they don't figure to win consistently, so even a quality veteran starter would have minimal Fantasy value there. It is notoriously tough for a young Nationals pitching prospect to succeed for Fantasy owners. Think more long term here.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
High A 3 1 1.65 5 4 0 0 1 27 1/3 15 6 5 1 8 31 1.61 .167
Double-A 7 2 3.21 20 20 0 0 0 106 2/3 89 42 38 9 39 103 1.31 .226
Totals 10 3 2.89 25 24 0 0 1 134 104 48 43 10 47 134 1.36 .215

2. OF Chris Marrero, 20

An injury-plagued year stunts his development some, but this future masher wasn't going to be a real factor in 2009 anyway. Consider him a long-term keeper prospect and one of the young outfielder prospects who could develop into a future Fantasy first-rounder. It should be a few years before he makes a true impact, because he is so young and raw.

Team AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLUG OPS
High A .250 70 256 40 64 15 2 11 38 116 25 55 0 0 .325 .453 .778

3. OF Michael Burgess, 20

Burgess clearly has pop in his bat, but the free-swinging young slugger has some work to do before he can display it in the high minors. That Nationals are in no hurry to bring their position-player prospects along, unlike their need for pitchers, so Burgess will likely move along at a pace equal to Marrero. It will make him an intriguing name in long-term keeper leagues, but makes him a non-factor in Fantasy 2009.

Team AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLUG OPS
Low A .249 112 401 60 100 26 4 18 60 188 46 136 5 1 .335 .469 .804
High A .225 19 71 12 16 3 0 6 19 37 9 26 0 2 .325 .521 .846
Totals .246 131 472 72 116 29 4 24 79 225 55 162 5 3 .333 .477 .810

4. SP Ross Detwiler, 23

The 2007 No. 1 pick took just a few months to make his major league debut, so it was thought he was going to challenge for a roster spot out of spring training. It didn't work out and Detwiler went back to Class A to relatively disappointing results. You cannot give up on an arm this intriguing, though, so watch him closely through the first half of the season. He could really surprise before the end of 2009.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
High A 8 8 4.86 26 26 0 0 0 124 140 72 67 8 57 114 1.61 .289

5. SP Shairon Martis, 22

Martis has been on the prospect radar since tossing a gem in the last World Baseball Classic and a teenager. But only in 2008 did he really soar up the Nationals' charts. He will compete for a rotation spot in spring training, but like we said above, Washington is not a good place to hunt for Fantasy pitching gems. Martis will really have to pitch well to be anything more than an NL-only option this season.

Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO BAA
Double-A 4 4 3.98 14 14 0 0 0 74 2/3 73 35 33 5 28 57 0.80 .258
Triple-A 1 2 3.02 7 7 0 0 0 41 2/3 42 17 14 2 17 42 0.59 .261
Totals 5 6 3.64 21 21 0 0 0 116 1/3 115 52 47 7 45 99 0.73 .259
Majors 1 3 5.66 5 4 0 0 0 20 2/3 18 14 13 5 12 23 0.73 .228

Best of the rest: SP Garrett Mock, C Derek Norris, SP Michael Hinckley, SP Jack McGeary, OF Justin Maxwell, SS Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS Danny Espinosa, OF Destin Hood, SP Tyler Clippard, SP Josh Smoker, SP Luis Atilano, OF Leonard Davis, SP Brad Peacock, OF Roger Bernadina, SS Ian Desmond, SS Alberto Gonzalez, 2B Matt Rogelstad, SP Adrian Alaniz, 1B Larry Broadway, SP Craig Stammen, RP Clint Everts, SP Graham Hicks, SS Michael Martinez, RP Mason Smith, RP Justin Jones, OF Edgardo Baez, OF Mike Daniel, OF Stephen Englund, SP Hassan Pena, SP Martin Beno, SP Zeno Zinicola, 3B Matt Whitney, SS Stephen King, SS Yurendell De Caster, RP Marco Estrada and C Luke Montz.

2008 rookies to exhaust eligibility: SP John Lannan, SP Collin Balester, OF Kory Casto, RP Steven Shell, 2B Anderson Hernandez,

Last year's top five here: OF Burgess, OF Marrero, SP Detwiler, SP Balester and OF Maxwell.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Nationals prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.

Josh Hamilton
Hamilton expected to arrive on time
Josh Hamilton, LF, TEX
12:55 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers GM Jon Daniels said he expects Josh Hamilton to report for spring training on time despite a recent revelation that Hamilton had a relapse in his quest to stay sober. Hamilton's admission led to a meeting with doctors associated with an after-care program run by MLB and the players association. The doctors have appeared to eliminate the option of sending Hamilton to rehab. Position players for the Rangers don't have to report until Feb. 25. "His health and his family are the priorities. We're not going to pre-empt that for anything about a contract," Daniels said about contract extension talks regarding Hamilton.
Analysis: Because of his recent relapse, Hamilton's prospects for a multi-year deal with Texas may be jeopardized for the time being. Though Hamilton has had to grapple with his addictions during his time with the Rangers, they haven't impacted his on-the-field performance. Hamilton remains an early-round target in all Fantasy formats.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

James Paxton
Paxton working on changeup
James Paxton, RP, SEA
1:21 PM
News: The Seattle Times reports Mariners SP prospect James Paxton said he is working a changeup into his repertoire. "It's something I've been working on for a while and that they figure is going to help me by adding another weapon,'' Paxton said. Paxton has been invited to major-league camp, but he appears to be a long shot to make the opening-day roster. "I'm just honored to be invited here,'' Paxton said. "This is a fantastic opportunity and I'm going to try to learn as much as I can.''
Analysis: After pitching in independent ball for a year, Paxton finally joined the minors in 2011. He had a successful run in Class A and Double-A. He went 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts. More importantly, he struck out 12.4 batters per nine innings. If Paxton has an impressive spring and gets off to a fast start in the minors, then he might arrive in the majors in 2012. However, he remains more of a long-term Fantasy keeper until he gets closer to his MLB debut.

Koji Uehara
Uehara pitched through elbow issue?
Koji Uehara, RP, TEX
1:02 PM
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Rangers RP Koji Uehara hinted on his blog that he received an injection into his right elbow last season. Uehara also posted that he threw 100 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday before departing Japan for spring training.
Analysis: Uehara has his history of injury issues, but he pitched for the Orioles and Rangers last season and neither team hinted at elbow problems. Uehara in fact posted a career-best 2.35 ERA in 65 outings. The Rangers are shopping Uehara because of a plethora of bullpen arms. Uehara will have value in deeper Rotisserie leagues for his low ERA, low WHIP and high strikeout rate. If he goes somewhere that needs a closer, his stock would rise, but he would still be a low-end option.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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