By the Numbers: Ringing in '09 with risk

On Draft Day, no one wants to be the owner who boldly claims a player from the top of their remaining draft list, only to find out that he would have been available several rounds later. I thought of that owner when I saw that the Giants inked Edgar Renteria to a contract that will pay him $18 million over the next two seasons. For less than the cost of Renteria's $500,000 option year buyout, they could have stuck with either Emmanuel Burriss or Kevin Frandsen, whose production should be no worse than what Renteria gave the Tigers in 2008. A GM could look foolish rushing out to secure a two-year rental on Renteria when he could have bought a Burriss.

As a result of this signing, the Giants will pay Renteria more than the salaries due to Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins over the next two years. It isn't unusual for major league players to get paid on the basis of past performance rather than their future potential, but GM Brian Sabean is apparently counting on Renteria to elevate himself somewhere near the vicinity of the Big Three. Remembering that Renteria had the second-highest RC/27 among major league shortstops in 2007, those expectations might not seem so crazy after all.

The point isn't that the Renteria signing is doomed to failure; it's that the signing is both fraught with risk and filled with potential reward. If he reverts to something close to his '07 status, Sabean looks like a genius. Just as likely, though, Renteria could settle into a late-career trough that renders him a huge waste of payroll.

Fantasy owners face the same sorts of dilemmas when deciding how to (or whether to) allocate draft or auction resources for inconsistent players like Renteria. Some owners will pursue Renteria, discounting his disappointing '08 stats in favor of weighting his more attractive numbers from previous seasons. Look no further than the 2009 projections here on CBSSports.com: he is ranked 15th among shortstops in the Fantasy Value projections, even though he finished 19th in '08. Nevermind that Renteria could easily slip to the final round or two of a mixed league draft, as he did in the recent CBSSports.com 5x5 mock draft. A risk-taking owner could spot the potential reward and claim him as early as the mid-teen rounds and stand a decent chance of not getting burned.

When an inconsistent player, like the Giants new shortstop, has shown flashes of excellence, how can an owner know when to commit to him on Draft Day? The first step is to get the story on what happened in the aberrant seasons. By investigating the reasons behind the fluctuations in performance, we can get a better handle on whether we can spot the "real Renteria."

In teasing out the reasons for his down year, four factors stand out: a notable drop in power, a continued decline in stolen bases, a decreasing walk rate and his lowest BABIP since 2001. At 34, we can't expect much of a rebound in his power and stolen base numbers, but between the improvement in whiff rate and a BABIP that should rise at least into the .310-.320 range, his batting average should rebound to its career norm of .290. In short, he should rebound, and we can have some confidence that the "real" Renteria in 2009 will be closer to the 2006 version rather than the one we saw 2007. That still represents a substantial upgrade over 2008, so there is little risk involved in taking Renteria ahead of where last year's stats suggest he should be on your draft list.

Armed with an explanation for Renteria's decline, the next step is to identify who his true Fantasy cohorts are. If we based our draft rankings solely on last year's performance, then Renteria's comparables would be low-end shortstops like Yuniesky Betancourt and Jason Bartlett. Having recalibrated our expectations, we know that he has higher quality Fantasy peers than these. But since there is still some risk involved in bumping Renteria up on your draft list, we need to determine how to rank these comparables on a draft list. While we may find several shortstops who are roughly equivalent in terms of their projected performance, they may not be equivalent in the likelihood that they achieve that level of performance.

As the table below shows, not all of the shortstops who rank close to Renteria in terms of Projected Fantasy Value represent an equal level of risk. Renteria's production dropped by more RC/27 than any other regular shortstop in the majors last year, but Yunel Escobar's took a major nosedive as well. Rafael Furcal also represents a risky pick, both because of fluctuating performance levels and health issues. Of this cohort of shortstops, Orlando Cabrera and Ryan Theriot represent the safest picks. Given Renteria's relative lack of upside and consistency, I would rank both Cabrera and Theriot ahead of him, even though Theriot's Fantasy Value is projected to be slightly lower.

As disappointing as Renteria's season was, there were plenty of other players who fell from lofty Fantasy heights in 2008. What follows is an investigation of six other players whose fortunes were among those that fell the farthest and an analysis of where we can expect them to land in 2009. There is also risk in determining where to draft players who had unusually good seasons in '08, but we will save those for next week. And we'll get around to the pitchers over the next few weeks as well.

Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among catchers: 25th
The story behind the season: Martinez' story is short and simple -- his elbow injury all but completely sapped his power and, of course, limited his playing time. All other stats remained mostly intact. He still hit his fair share of flyballs and liners and compensated for a slight drop in walks by making more contact. Having had time to recover, there is little reason to think he can't make it back to his '06 levels, if not a return to those from '07.

Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among catchers: 5th
2009 draft list cohorts: Geovanny Soto, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit. It may be a stretch for him to land in Soto/Mauer territory, and in all likelihood he'll slot in somewhere between them and Doumit. While Martinez is not an especially risky pick, neither are Soto and Mauer, so there is no need to leapfrog Martinez over them on your draft list.

James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among first basemen: 17th
The story behind the season: Loney held his ground in most areas of his game, but not in the home run department. On a positive note, he increased his doubles rate by 12 percent, so that could signal a re-emergence of home run power in the near future. Then again, he has struggled to hit for power against southpaws, even in 2007, when he slugged .538 overall. That weakness was exposed in 169 at-bats against lefties last year. These mixed signals make Loney a risky pick, but one with some tantalizing upside potential.

Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among first basemen: 17th
2009 draft list cohorts: Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Conor Jackson. Unless Votto regresses badly, there is little chance that Loney will surpass him in '09. It will be hard to pin down Pena's performance level, but his range of possibilities exceeds Loney's. That leaves Jackson as Loney's most likely equivalent, and he is also the closest thing to a known quantity in this group. If Loney's power doesn't develop, he will get lapped by Jackson, just as he did last year when he created 1.5 more runs per 27 outs.

The problem with playing it safe with Jackson is that he represents replacement-level production in a 10-team mixed league format. Loney could just as likely be a fringe mixed league first baseman next year, but he also has the chance to be a solid mixed league contributor, which Jackson will probably never be. It's worth taking the risk on Loney over Jackson. If he disappoints, there will still be a Paul Konerko or Adam LaRoche out there waiting on waivers.

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among second basemen: 16th
The story behind the season: Cano's decline was marked by an unfortunate combination of declining power and a growing tendency towards hitting flyballs. Prior to last season, Cano was one of the most groundball-prone hitters in the big leagues, but getting in the habit of lofting up flies when you are hitting with less power does not make for a good offensive trend.

Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among second basemen: 8th
2009 draft list cohorts: Mark DeRosa, Jose Lopez. Cano's eighth-place ranking is a little deceptive, because he will be light years behind seventh-ranked Alexei Ramirez unless his power comes all the way back. The inconsistent DeRosa and Lopez are closer equivalents, but their upsides hover at a level below Cano's. It doesn't make sense to rank Cano above Ramirez, but you can draft him with confidence before DeRosa or Lopez are taken off the board.

Chone Figgins, 3B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among third basemen: 15th
The story behind the season: Leg and hamstring issues hampered Figgins' stolen base production, but it also drained his Isolated Power average. It may seem strange to talk about power numbers for a hitter who has all the home run prowess of Alfredo Amezaga, but Figgins' reduced ability to leg out doubles and triples was responsible for his dreadful .042 Isolated Power average. In Fantasy terms, that translated into Figgins driving in just 22 (count 'em) runs in 453 at-bats.

Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among third basemen: 11th
2009 draft list cohorts: Ryan Zimmerman, Jorge Cantu. Zimmerman, who has had his ups and downs, looks like a paragon of consistency compared with Figgy, at least on a superficial level. That said, we may have an easier time pinning down our expectations for Figgins, because there are explanations for his wild three-year ride. Last year's struggles can be chalked up to injuries, and the peaks and valleys of '07 and '06, respectively, appear to be the result of some fluky-looking line-drive and BABIP rates. Notice that his actual skill numbers -- walk rate, whiff rate and Isolated Power -- from those two seasons are close to identical. Split the difference of those two extremes, and we can see Figgins with something close to a .280 average, 40 RBI and 75 runs. Stolen bases are in a downward trend, so 40 swipes is about the best we can hope for.

If Zimmerman's power and patience return, he is the clear choice among these cohorts, but that's a big "if." The choice for the risk-averse comes down to Figgins and Cantu, and it's practically a toss up. The choice for many owners will inevitably come down to whether they need steals more than power.

Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 31st
The story behind the season: Despite a notable dropoff in power, there are several reasons to see Hart's glass as half-full. His .268 average was depressed by a curiously low BABIP. Combine an expected BABIP rebound with a consistently improving whiff rate, and Hart could have his average back up in the .290s or higher. Add in the fact that he will have his magical 27th birthday during Spring Training, and there is the potential for a bust-out year, especially if his power returns.

Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 27th
2009 draft list cohorts: Ryan Ludwick, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Jay Bruce. Hart has some question marks to be sure, but Ludwick is a poor bet to repeat '08, Wells' numbers have been all over the place, and Bruce is a high-ceiling, high-risk pick. That leaves Torii Hunter as the steadiest alternative to Hart. Even if Hart's power merely plateaus, he will provide close to the value that Hunter will, just on the basis of the BABIP rebound alone. Add in the potential for a breakout, and Hart deserves to be the first of his cohorts to get drafted.

Hunter Pence, OF, Houston
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 38th
The story behind the season: I fully expected Pence's numbers to tell a horror story. His Fantasy stats took a beating (at least on a per-at-bat basis) compared to his rookie season, but his skill stats held up nicely in Year Two. There was very little change in his walk or whiff rates and his power didn't dip as much as the 74-point drop in his slugging percentage would suggest. The decrease in slugging was mainly driven by the 53-point plunge in his batting average, which in turn was an artifact of an inflated rookie-year BABIP. The bad news there is that Pence was never really a .322 hitter, but he has the skill and youth to merit an upside projection of a .290 average with 30 homers and 90 RBI.

Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 31st
2009 draft list cohorts: Jermaine Dye, Brad Hawpe, Raul Ibanez. Pence needs to take a big stride to catch up with Dye and Hawpe. While he is poised to do it, his stats are more likely to mirror Ibanez' (plus a few steals to boot). Though the differences among these four shouldn't add up to much, Hawpe, Dye, Pence, Ibanez would be the order on my draft list.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.