By the Numbers: Catching falling stars
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Last week, I tried to gauge the bounce of players who appeared to hit bottom last season, so now we will turn to players who could reel after an up year. Shortly, we will attend to the annual adventure of placing J.D. Drew on our draft lists, not to mention other forays into risky Fantasy behavior.
But first, let's take a dip into an even murkier pool: teasing out a couple of the still-unsettled closer situations. In the two weeks since I wrote my column on potential '09 rookie closers, the ever-changing bullpen landscape has shifted, and a couple of recent deals may have created opportunities for two unheralded rookies.
The three-team trade that delivered J.J. Putz to the Mets as their new setup man is good news for Mets fans, bad news for Putz owners, and potentially a boost to the fortunes of Shawn Kelley. When I first analyzed the pool of possible rookie closers, I saw Kelley as having an opportunity mid- to late-season. Now with Putz off the roster and the M's reportedly committed to keeping Brandon Morrow as a starter, Kelley's chance to earn saves could come earlier rather than later. He has already notched nine saves with 21 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings in the Venezuelan Winter League and, as of now, would only have to compete with the likes of Mark Lowe and Cesar Jimenez to become Seattle's closer. It seems that Kelley should at least get a shot to compete for the closer's role in Spring Training, so it's definitely a name to tuck away for Draft Day.
Facing somewhat more competition to close is new Padre Mark Worrell, acquired from St. Louis in the Khalil Greene deal. Heath Bell and Mike M. Adams are legitimate, though underwhelming, candidates to succeed Trevor Hoffman, but unlike Kelley, Worrell has some closing experience at Triple-A, and he even got a cup of coffee with the Cardinals in '08. He is another name to look for in the boxscores come March.
With the Cardinals, Brewers, Angels and Tigers all searching for closers, the bullpen shuffling is far from done. As free agents find new homes and hot stove trade talks heat up, we'll keep looking for some unexpected sources of saves.
Speaking of unexpected, who would have guessed a year ago that Aubrey Huff would achieve the fourth highest Fantasy Value among first basemen in '08? Or that only six catchers would accrue more Fantasy Value than Mike Napoli? These were just a couple of the strange, but true, stories of Fantasy success from this past season, but can we expect repeat performances from this pair in the coming season? Or should these and other stars of the '08 Fantasy season tumble their way down owners' draft lists in '09?
Mike Napoli, C, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among catchers: 7th
The story behind the season: For those who tuned out the last month of the regular season, the fact that Napoli finished the season ranking ahead of A.J. Pierzynski, Chris Iannetta and Yadier Molina probably has you scratching your head. What you missed was a September where Napoli compiled a 1.414 OPS. The man who produced this mind-numbing stat was the same high-walk, high-strikeout, flyball-hitting, Mark Bellhorn-behind-a-mask type of player he had been in his first two seasons, except for one pretty important difference. He led all major leaguers with at least 200 AB with a .313 Isolated Power.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | L.A. Angels of Anaheim | 16% | 34% | 0.228 | 0.278 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 2007 | L.A. Angels of Anaheim | 13% | 29% | 0.196 | 0.301 | 5.4 | 5 |
| 2008 | L.A. Angels of Anaheim | 13% | 31% | 0.313 | 0.307 | 7.8 | 7 |
Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among catchers: 19th
2009 draft list cohorts: Chris Snyder, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Dioner Navarro, Jesus Flores, Kurt Suzuki. We would be suspicious of the 1.414 one-month OPS if it came from Albert Pujols, so we certainly don't trust it from the Angels' part-time catcher. However, we should also be suspicious of Napoli's .822 OPS from the season's first five months. That number was depressed by a misleading .218 average and .231 BABIP. Even if he compiles a more realistic .250 batting average, he won't slug .586 again, so don't expect Napoli to grace the top 10 list next season. Among his projected '09 cohorts, Napoli's profile is most similar (in fact, eerily similar) to Chris Snyder's. In terms of upside and consistency, Snyder and Napoli are the class of this group, so they are an interchangeable 1-2 within this cohort, unless Napoli fails to recover quickly from his offseason shoulder surgery.
Aubrey Huff, 1B, Baltimore
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among first basemen: 4th
The story behind the season: The percentage increase in Isolated Power for Huff (52 percent) was almost as monstrous as Napoli's (60 percent), but Huff's power surge was far more impressive, because he sustained it over 371 more at-bats. Huff's '08 profile continues a yo-yo trend that is now in its fourth year. During his term as the mayor of Inconsistent City, his walk and whiff rates have been steady enough, but the year-to-year changes in Isolated Power (-.30, +.36, -.41, +.85) have created havoc for Fantasy owners trying to evaluate him.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay/Houston | 10% | 14% | 0.203 | 0.271 | 5.6 | 0 |
| 2007 | Baltimore | 8% | 16% | 0.162 | 0.310 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 2008 | Baltimore | 8% | 15% | 0.247 | 0.314 | 7.5 | 4 |
Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among first basemen: 10th
2009 draft list cohorts: Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Delgado. Gonzalez has improved consistently since becoming a regular in 2006, and now he is entering the peak phase of his career. At his best, Huff is more productive than Gonzalez, but between his age and crazy-making inconsistency, chances are better that Gonzalez will have the superior Fantasy season in '09. I would also give a slight edge to Delgado here, because as inconsistent as he has been, he has actually been a more reliable producer from year-to-year than Huff. If you are in a league that penalizes batters for strikeouts, reverse that order and go with Huff before Delgado.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among second basemen: 2nd
The story behind the season: When you make more contact, hit for more power, and increase your stolen bases, life is good for you and your Fantasy owners. With his steady improvement and well-rounded game, there is little doubt that Kinsler has earned his place among the elite second basemen.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | Texas | 9% | 15% | 0.168 | 0.310 | 5.5 | 11 |
| 2007 | Texas | 11% | 17% | 0.178 | 0.282 | 5.6 | 23 |
| 2008 | Texas | 8% | 13% | 0.199 | 0.339 | 7.4 | 26 |
Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among second basemen: 2nd
2009 draft list cohorts: Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Roberts. Admittedly, a column on "falling stars" is an odd place to find Kinsler, who is in the discussion to be the first second baseman drafted in 2009. However, if Utley makes a quick recovery from offseason hip surgery, Kinsler could drop a notch from second to third in the second baseman rankings. Roberts has been surpassed by both Kinsler and Pedroia, so he is out of the equation. If Utley returns early and healthy, he will continue to be the top producer at his position. Between Kinsler and Pedroia, Kinsler will hit a few more home runs, but I would still put Pedroia ahead of him. It comes down to this: Kinsler hits far too many flyballs to sustain the .339 BABIP he compiled in '08, and as a result, his batting average should decrease significantly. On the other hand, Pedroia's .326 average was very much for real.
Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 32nd
The story behind the season: Ethier's Isolated Power on August 1: .168. From August 1 forward (aka The Manny Era): .282. Before Manny came to town, Ethier was having a carbon copy of his '07 season. Then in August he hit seven bombs, and in September he stopped getting good pitches to hit (19 percent walk rate).
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | L.A. Dodgers | 8% | 19% | 0.169 | 0.360 | 6.1 | 5 |
| 2007 | L.A. Dodgers | 9% | 15% | 0.168 | 0.311 | 5.4 | 0 |
| 2008 | L.A. Dodgers | 10% | 17% | 0.206 | 0.336 | 7.3 | 6 |
Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 40th
2009 draft list cohorts: Rick Ankiel, Xavier Nady. You've got to credit Ethier for his remarkable consistency prior to the Ramirez trade, but that makes it all the harder to buy into last season's improvement. One indicator that Ethier improved dramatically prior to Manny's arrival was his pitches per plate appearance rate (P/PA) rate. The good news for Ethier owners is that this stat correlates nicely with some good things, like Isolated Power and walk rate. Despite his overall record of stagnation, at 26, Ethier is young enough to get out of the rut he was in for the first two and a half years of his career. On the other hand, Ankiel and Nady are at points in their careers where they are likely to level off. It makes sense to take Ethier before either of his elder cohorts.
J.D. Drew, OF, Boston
2008 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 55th
The story behind the season: Drew posted his highest OPS since 2005 by getting his Isolated Power back in the mid-.200s and becoming more selective at the plate. He hit eight more homers than in '07 and equaled his RBI and walk totals, despite getting 98 fewer at-bats in '08.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | L.A. Dodgers | 15% | 22% | 0.215 | 0.326 | 7.5 | 2 |
| 2007 | Boston | 15% | 22% | 0.152 | 0.324 | 5.6 | 4 |
| 2008 | Boston | 18% | 22% | 0.239 | 0.312 | 7.8 | 4 |
Projected 2009 ranking in Fantasy value among outfielders: 46th
2009 draft list cohorts: Milton Bradley, Delmon Young, Hideki Matsui. Drew has a reputation for inconsistency, but from a skills perspective, he has been steady for three out of the last four years. It's his health that makes him so difficult to project. He is a higher risk proposition than either Matsui or Young, but give him 500 at-bats and he is the clear winner. You might as well take the risk on Drew, because there is little that separates Matsui and Young from other fringe mixed league outfielders, like Aaron Rowand or Jason Kubel, who could still be available in later rounds. Drew is also a superior pick to Bradley, who is even less reliable in terms of both playing time and performance.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
