By the Numbers: Maximum impact sluggers

Practically every season there is a hitter who gets discovered by hordes of Fantasy owners, simply by virtue of clubbing a cluster of home runs in a small number of at-bats. When this happens, it always raises the interest of owners wondering what this player might do with a full season of at-bats. A year ago, we asked this question about Josh Hamilton and Cody Ross, and then we learned that both could mash over a full year, but not quite at the rate of Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols. Going even farther back, we wondered if Chris Duncan and Brad Eldred could maintain a 35-plus home run pace over six months. Injuries have prevented Duncan from finding out, while both injuries and poor play have limited Eldred to just 46 big-league at-bats over the last three years.

Chris Davis has the potential to be a big-time masher in 2009. (Getty Images)

This time around, Fantasy owners are speculating over how much success Chris Davis could have in 2009. After smashing 17 homers in just 295 at-bats (17.4 AB/HR) last season, CBSSports.com projects Davis to slow down ever so slightly to 30 homers in 546 at-bats (18.2 AB/HR). Because of his limited experience above Class-A ball, this high ceiling projection is also a high risk projection. As we look to minimize our risk in evaluating Davis, are there clues to help us determine whether the Rangers' third baseman is the next Josh Hamilton or the next Brad Eldred?

This is a question I started to ponder after getting an e-mail from a reader, Bob B., who was interested in AB/HR rates. He belongs to a league where the lone scoring category is home runs. Using AB/HR rates to find hidden sources of home run power can be a useful tool for 5x5 and 4x4 players as well as owners in the rare 1x0 format. But can Bob and the rest of us count on low AB/HR rates established in small samples of at-bats to carry over into a season's worth of production?

If we can trust the AB/HR data going back to the 2000 season, then we'd have to conclude that we can't put much stock in partial-season power tears. Between 2000 and 2007, there were a total of 30 batters who established AB/HR rates of 20.0 or less in a season where they reached at least 130 at-bats for the first time but did not exceed 300 at-bats. These are hitters who played often enough to catch our attention, but didn't have enough of a big league track record that we could completely trust their stats. Of these 30 players who teased us with two or three months of power, only six of them have ever had a 30-homer season. Four more hitters -- Rick Ankiel, Jeff Francoeur, Jayson Werth and Elijah Dukes -- could conceivably still reach that milestone, and another two -- Jay Gibbons (28 HR in 2002) and Craig Wilson (29 HR in 2004) -- have come close. The other 18 players in this group never had a single 25-home run season among them, and likely never will, even though all of them have had a partial season when they were on pace to hit at least 25.

Our odds of plucking the David Wrights and Justin Morneaus out from among the Jeff Liefers and Fernando Seguignols increases if we look at whiff rates. Fourteen out of the 30 partial-season sluggers on our list managed their high home run rates while keeping their whiff rates below 25 percent. Of these 14 hitters, eight of them have managed at least one 25-homer season, and five have had at least one 30-homer season. Out of the remaining 16 hitters, there are only two members of the 25-plus home run club (Adam Dunn and Craig A. Wilson) and only one member of the 30-plus club (Dunn).

Looking at the big whiffers portion of the list, it's easy to see where things went wrong for these hitters. Even some of the more successful players from this group, like Liefer, Russell Branyan and John Buck have had trouble sticking in a regular role, because their teams were able find an alternative with power and a batting average well above .230. Unless you are a 40-homer, 100-walk threat like Dunn, it's hard to stay in the lineup everyday without maintaining a respectable whiff rate or batting average.

What does this trend portend for some potential power bats in '09? For Chris Davis, the news is mixed. On the plus side, his minor league whiff rate hovered around the 25 percent mark, and at age 23 next season, he could take a big step forward. Unforttunately, he'll be taking that step from the 30 percent whiff rate he established with the Rangers last season. Also, while his 17.4 AB/HR was impressive, it's substanially higher than the rates of other successful, high-whiff rate sluggers like Dunn, Howard and Ryan Ludwick. Davis should be good enough to be a mixed league player next year, but don't make the mistake of taking him too early based on a prorating of last season's stats. Ryan Zimmerman and Jorge Cantu, and not Evan Longoria and Aramis Ramirez, are his most likely comparables.

Matt Joyce split time in Detroit with Marcus Thames, but looks to get more playing time now that he's a Ray. Just don't expect him to translate his 12 HR in 242 at-bats with the Tigers into 25-plus homers with Tampa Bay. Like Davis, he strikes out a little too much, but he is older than Davis and his minor league numbers are feeble by comparison. If the Rays get frustrated with Joyce's low batting average, they can always turn to another partial-season slugger, Ben Zobrist. Tampa Bay's late-season secret weapon actually hit homers more frequently than Joyce in '08, and his whiff rate was below the major league average.

Nelson Cruz and Dallas McPherson are both facing what is likely to be their last chance to parlay a one-time power binge into a regular major league job. Neither projects to be an impact Fantasy player due to their checkered major league track records and -- here we go again -- propensity for strikeouts and low batting averages.

Davis is far and away the best bet among this group to eclipse the 25-homer mark in '09, but because he made such a notable impression last season, it's hard to call him a "surprise power source" with a straight face. For a true sleeper in the home run category, consider Joe Mather. As of now, he doesn't have a regular role with the Cardinals, but that is one Rick Ankiel trade away from changing. Last season, Mather hit a home run every 16.6 at-bats, mashing more frequently than Davis or Joyce. The power display was no fluke, as Mather's minor league rate over the last two years was 14.5. Add in the fact that he is not especially prone to strikeouts and that last season's .241 average was held down by a .258 BABIP, and Mather looks like someone who would be a top 50 Fantasy outfielder with regular playing time.

Can Quentin Repeat?: One of the players who made good on his promise of power in '08 was Carlos Quentin. He gave us a preview of his 36-homer performance by slamming nine long balls in just 166 at-bats in 2006, before he succumbed to a shoulder injury in 2007. Now reader Michael G. wants to know if Quentin "will continue to tear the cover off the ball in '09" or if he will revert to his previous injury-prone ways.

While questions still linger about Quentin's health and durability, given his previous elbow and shoulder woes, owners should recall that his fractured wrist from this past September was self-inflicted and not the residue from a previous injury. From a skills perspective, there is every reason to think that Quentin can continue to produce at the level he set this past year. His power spiked significantly last season, but the surge came at an age (25) when you can expect rapid development. Quentin's sharp strike zone judgment (12 percent walk rate, 17 percent whiff rate) was apparent during his minor league career, particularly when he was healthy. Lastly, there is room for Quentin's batting average to improve, as long as he can elevate his BABIP from the .280 level he established in '08. If other flyball artists like Nate McLouth and Bengie Molina can compile BABIPs in the .290s, why can't Quentin? Overall, he should have very similar numbers to what he posted in '08 and be a top 10 Fantasy outfielder.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.