Jan. 21, 2009

2009 outlooks: Baltimore Orioles

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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Eleven seasons have elapsed since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, and at this rate, so might 11 more.

So it seemed, anyway, until the Orioles finally decided to pull the plug on mediocrity, jumping into a full-scale rebuilding project a few years after they should have. Only now will they begin to see some of the fruits of their labor, including pitchers Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz and catcher Matt Wieters, their first-round pick in 2007 who might have to serve an Evan Longoria-like Triple-A sentence in April before assuming his rightful spot in the major-league lineup.

But the gem of the Orioles' farm system for now remains Nick Markakis, who the team signed to a six-year deal in the offseason. He represents the Orioles' hope for the future, quickly emerging out of the minors as everything they hoped he'd be. A patient, steady hitter, he has already become an elite Fantasy option at age 25 even though he has yet to reach his 30-homer potential.

And recently, the Orioles have done their best to collect high-upside players to complement Markakis. Adam Jones, the immediate prize of the Erik Bedard trade, has 20-20 potential, and Felix Pie, acquired from the Cubs, can reach that level as well, though he has a bit more growing to do. First baseman Aubrey Huff began to play back up to his capabilities with a 30-homer season last year, and steady veterans Brian Roberts, still one of Fantasy's best at his position, and Melvin Mora, who topped 100 RBI last year without much fanfare, man second and third base respectively. The team suffers from no shortage of depth either, having to choose a designated hitter between 23-homer man Luke Scott and late bloomer Luis Montanez, who made an impact late last season after a monster campaign at Double-A Bowie, and having Ty Wigginton, a versatile corner infielder and outfielder with pop, available off the bench. Even at shortstop, Cesar Izturis represents a huge improvement over every player the Orioles tried there last year. He might give you some cheap steals in Fantasy.

Of course, for everything good the Orioles have in their starting lineup, they have just as much bad in their starting rotation, at least until Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz arrive. Jeremy Guthrie has become an innings eater at the top -- and a serviceable pitcher in Fantasy -- but he and Japanese import Koji Uehara disappear into a sea of thousands competing for the final three spots in the rotation. Rich Hill, Mark Hendrickson, Chris Waters, Radhames Liz, Danys Baez, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Brian Burres, Brian Bass ... the list goes on and on and on. Fortunately, you don't need to know anything about these pitchers except that you don't want them in Fantasy. Sure, some of them might have some measure of upside -- particularly Hill, who had an effective season in 2007 before losing all command last year -- but not one has shown enough signs of a breakthrough to have any real Fantasy significance.

Aubrey Huff will likely come down from his 2008 production, but how far? (Getty Images)

Potential Breakout: Matt Wieters, C

Rarely does a publication tout a rookie as a "breakout," especially when he plays the extra-demanding catcher position, but rarely does a player come along so gifted that he dominates in his first try at every level in the minor-league system. Yes, dominates. In his first -- yes, first -- professional season last year, Wieters, the fifth overall pick in the 2007 draft, ranked fifth among all minor-league players with a .355 batting average, third with a .454 on-base percentage, 10th with a .600 slugging percentage and third with a 1.053 OPS. He went all the way up to Double-A and actually improved, hitting .365 with 12 home runs and a 1.085 OPS in 208 at-bats. What comes as a challenge to most top prospects comes as a slow-pitch softball game to him. He even walks more than he strikes out already at age 22. How could he possibly fail at the major-league level, assuming he gets a chance to succeed? Of course, the possibility of him opening the year in the minors means you might get him after the 15th round. Even better, right?

Potential Bust: Aubrey Huff, 1B

Considering where they've drafted him so far, Fantasy owners already don't have much confidence in Huff, making him somewhat of an unfair choice here since he seems like a perfectly reasonable risk between the sixth and eighth rounds of a standard 12-team league. But of the few Fantasy-relevant players on the Orioles' mostly underdeveloped roster, Huff stands out as the one most likely to disappoint. The guy had all but removed himself from the collective Fantasy consciousness after several years of semi-useful numbers before exploding with a .304 batting average and 32 home runs last year. Yes, he has hit .300 with 30 home runs before, back in 2003 with the Rays, but what happened all those years in between? His peripherals suggest he should have had the elite numbers all along, but if you don't want to risk him reverting back to his career norms, feel free to steer clear of him on Draft Day.

Potential Sleeper: Adam Jones, OF

Jones might go undrafted in standard Fantasy leagues, especially since he didn't establish himself as much of a base-stealing threat. But the 23-year-old looked surprisingly polished at the plate last year for someone with such a low walk rate. True, his plate discipline will have to improve before his talent really takes off, but for a player widely considered raw and unrefined, a .270 batting average is something of an accomplishment. If a broken foot hadn't derailed his progress late last season, causing him to slump in his return, he might have hit closer to .290. The possibility he takes his next step forward power-wise makes him worth a late-round flier. More likely, he'll need a few seasons to make a significant Fantasy impact, but you never know.

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