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Eric Mack

'09 Draft Prep: Top 25 rookies to target

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Find yourself wondering how the upstart Tampa Bay Rays outdueled the big-budget Yankees and Red Sox in the AL Beast last summer? Look no further than their farm system.

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Every year they churn out cheap talent for the major league team, and not just roster-fillers either. They have a nice collection of legit future superstars.

This, therefore, shouldn't surprise you: For the fourth consecutive year, we list a Tampa rookie as the No. 1 target on Draft Day.

Heck, it is even the one that put the nail in the coffin of the then-defending champion Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS -- one David Price. He follows the footsteps of two-time No. 1 Delmon Young, who was traded for ALCS MVP Matt Garza, and last year's No. 1 Evan Longoria. Longoria conveniently won the AL Rookie of the Year and led his team, which had never won more than 70 games in a single season, to the biggest franchise turnaround in major-league history.

So yes, when elite prospects hit big as rookies they can really turn teams around, Fantasy teams not excluded.

David Price made a pretty nice debut during Tampa's World Series run in 2008. (Getty Images)  
David Price made a pretty nice debut during Tampa's World Series run in 2008. (Getty Images)  
If the Price is right -- pun completely intentional and hitting you on the head like one of his hard, cut fastballs -- you will have the next AL ROY dominating for you in your Fantasy rotation. In a recent Rotisserie analysts draft, Price was the first pick of the 11th round, and frankly he shouldn't have lasted that long. Perhaps the only reason he stuck on the board that long is because pitching in Rotisserie formats has the tendency to go a little later.

In the case of Longoria, he was picked in your Fantasy draft last year and maybe even dropped at the season's start, since he was sent to the minor leagues. Well, he came up two weeks into the season and was a monster from there on out. Price is more certain to make the team out of spring training, so he is even a safer pick this go around -- even if he has the notorious dangers of counting on young pitching working against him. (How did Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain work out for the Yankees and your Fantasy team last year?).

There are varying timetables that teams and prospects have in a given season, which is why we take the time this year to differentiate between prospects and rookies to target in our preseason draft prep package.

Here are our picks for the rookie-eligible players who are worth considering on Draft Day. Bear with us, though, because position battles this spring can dramatically alter which rookies will have the most immediate impact for Fantasy owners. A rookie drafted in February might not even see the major leagues this year. On the opposite side of the ledger, a Chris Davis-like midseason call-up might not get drafted in any league and provide a huge lift for Fantasy owners during the season.

The possibilities for our Top 25 are endless, so if you want a larger swath of prospects to peruse for Draft Day, check out our Top 100 prospects list. Those are the most intriguing talents in the minors, ignoring whether or not they are real candidates to make the team out of spring training.

Top 25 rookies to target on Draft Day
RK Player TM Age POS 2008 high Destination
1 David Price TB 23 LHP Majors Majors
Very few come around with greater expectations, but almost no one has this kind of talent.
2 Matt Wieters BAL 22 C Double-A Triple-A
They say he will open the year in the minors, but he could prove irresistable in spring training.
3 Cameron Maybin FLA 21 OF Majors Majors
His steals will be what he should be drafted for, but he figures to be able to do everything long term.
4 Jeff Samardzija CHC 24 RHP Majors Majors
If he wins the No. 5 spot in the Cubs rotation in spring, he might prove the most valuable on this list.
5 Elvis Andrus TEX 20 SS Double-A Majors
Rangers hand the starting SS job to him over Michael Young, but his steals are his lone plus asset.
6 Travis Snider TOR 21 OF Majors Majors
His power will be far more intriguing long term, but he is a nice sleeper at a real deep position.
7 Kenshin Kawakami ATL 33 RHP Japan Majors
Smallish right-handed import is quite old for a rookie, but he could have a Hiroki Kuroda-like impact.
8 Taylor Teagarden TEX 25 C Majors Majors
Jarrod Saltalamacchia is ahead of him right now, but T2 is a future top 10 Fantasy C himself, too.
9 Thomas Hanson ATL 22 RHP Double-A Triple-A
Arizona Fall League is a hitter's league and it couldn't touch him. What an amazing talent on the verge.
10 Nick Adenhart LAA 22 RHP Majors Triple-A
If not for his poor 2008, he would be lock for the Angels rotation and a certain top five on this list.
11 Gio Gonzalez OAK 23 LHP Majors Majors
Minor league strikeout maven has a rotation spot to lose with the A's and could really surprise.
12 Clayton Richard CHW 25 LHP Majors Majors
Long term he might merely be a back-end starter, but Chicago has a rotation spot open for him now.
13 Aaron Poreda CHW 22 LHP Double-A Triple-A
He could win the No. 5 spot, so move him into the top five here if he beats out the less-telanted Richard.
14 James McDonald LAD 24 RHP Majors Triple-A
Yet another No. 5 rotation candidate who will need to move up this list if he wins a job in spring camp.
15 Chris Getz CHW 25 2B Majors Majors
Alexei Ramirez's move to shortstop could make Getz a starter and perhaps even Chicago's leadoff man.
16 Max Ramirez TEX 24 C Majors Triple-A
Of Texas' catching trio, Ramirez has the most dynamic bat, but he might be the one to open in Triple-A.
17 George Kottaras BOS 25 C Majors Majors
The next Kelly Shoppach? Kottaras had 22 Triple-A homers and could steal some starts from Jason Varitek.
18 Carlos Carrasco PHI 22 RHP Triple-A Triple-A
The Phillies might bring their prized pitching prospect along slowly this spring, but look out once he arrives.
19 Koji Uehara BAL 33 RHP Japan Majors
The Orioles have him penciled in as their No. 2 starter, but that's not a good situation for any Fantasy pitcher.
20 Jason Motte STL 26 RHP Majors Majors
The Cardinals could give him a look as closer, but we see a setup man. If he closes, he will be top 10 here.
21 Brett Gardner NYY 25 OF Majors Majors
The Yankees don't have a true center fielder, so this base-stealer could impact Rotisserie if he starts.
22 Matt LaPorta CLE 24 OF Triple-A Triple-A
The biggest mashing prospect around will eventually be a Fantasy superstar, but he likely opens in minors.
23 David Freese STL 25 3B Triple-A Majors
With Troy Glaus' shoulder surgery, his 26 Triple-A homers could make him a sleeper to start on opening day.
24 Brent Lillibridge CHW 25 SS Majors Majors
He's insurance in case Getz isn't the answer and could prove to be a steal in deeper AL-only formats.
25 Matt Antonelli SD 23 2B Majors Triple-A
He is still better than Chase Headley in our eyes and a potential starter at second base for the Padres.

In addition to our Top 25 rookies to target and our ensuing Top 100 prospects in Fantasy Baseball, we annually provide you with a quick-reference guide for our preseason All-Rookie and All-Prospect teams. The All-Rookie Team consists of those players we expect to make the most significant impact in Fantasy Baseball this season, broken down by position. The All-Prospect Team is made up of players who will make the most noise this year as burgeoning, long-term superstars, regardless of whether they make it to The Show.

All-Rookie Team
All-Prospect Team
POS Rookie TM POS Prospect TM
C Matt Wieters BAL C Matt Wieters BAL
1B Gaby Sanchez FLA 1B Chris C. Carter OAK
2B Chris Getz CHW 2B Alcides Escobar MIL
3B Mat Gamel MIL 3B Pedro Alvarez PIT
SS Elvis Andrus TEX SS Gordon Beckham CHW
OF Cameron Maybin FLA OF Cameron Maybin FLA
OF Travis Snider TOR OF Colby Rasmus STL
OF Dexter Fowler COL OF Jason Heyward ATL
DH Matt LaPorta CLE DH Matt LaPorta CLE
SP David Price TB SP David Price TB
SP Jeff Samardzija CHC SP Madison Bumgarner SF
SP Thomas Hanson ATL SP Trevor Cahill OAK
SP Nick Adenhart LAA SP Brett Anderson OAK
SP Aaron Poreda CHW SP Neftali Feliz TEX
SP Chris Tillman BAL SP Thomas Hanson ATL
RP Jason Motte STL RP Henry Rodriguez OAK

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Top 25 rookies in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

Felix Hernandez
King Felix likely to start game in Japan
Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Hernandez didn't repeat as the AL Cy Young winner in 2011, but he still had another solid season for Seattle. He went 14-14 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He also struck out 222 in 233 2/3 innings. His win-loss record would probably be way better on a top contender, but King Felix still does plenty for Fantasy owners to be considered a top 10 Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

Hisashi Iwakuma
Iwakuma says shoulder is fine
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners SP Hisashi Iwakuma said his shoulder is fine after he was limited to 17 starts last season in Japan because of a sore right shoulder. "I talked to him at length a couple days ago," pitching coach Carl Willis said. "This is obviously all new to him being in the States for the first time, with a different routine pitching every fifth day instead of sixth or seventh. But he's not an 18-year-old kid either. He has a history of what he's done to get ready for a season and we'll talk daily. Really, at the outset it comes down to me listening to him, because he's the one who knows what he needs to do to get ready."
Analysis: Iwakuma had a 107-69 record in 226 career games in Japan. The right-hander was selected the 2008 Pacific League MVP and winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award (the equivalent of the Cy Young Award) after going 21-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Last season, Iwakuma went 6-7 with a 2.42 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 17 starts. While his numbers overseas are impressive, you know it has been hit or miss when it has come to Japanese pitchers in the majors. Even if Iwakuma lands a rotation spot with Seattle, you won't want to use more than a late-round flier on him.

Tim Hudson
Hudson cleared to increase throwing
Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves SP Tim Hudson, who is recovering from surgery to repair a disc in his back late in November, had been playing light catch in his yard until begin cleared by doctors this week to increase his throwing.
Analysis: The word around Braves camp is proceed with caution in regards to the veteran Hudson. Pretty much every important Braves official has said they won't rush the right-hander in his recovery, and Atlanta is willing to start the season without him if it comes to that. We will just have to see how he progresses this spring. Consider Hudson an injury-risk, mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Clearly, he can be a very productive Fantasy option when healthy.

Mike Minor
Minor having early control problems
Mike Minor, SP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves SP Mike Minor, vying again this spring for the fifth starter's job, said, "All my pitches are everywhere right now." His says his arm feels good, but that it's lagging and he isn't following through. Fortunately, he knows the point of the Braves' early throwing program is to get these preseason inconsistencies out of the way.
Analysis: Minor is considered the favorite to win the final spot in the Braves' rotation over Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. However, Minor might be needed at the start of the season regardless if Tim Hudson's recovery from back surgery doesn't go as planned. Minor kind of disappointed in 15 starts in 2011. In fact, he has just a 4.74 ERA in 24 outings (23 starts) as a major leaguer and hasn't shown the same type of dominance he did in the minors. Still, the Braves have high hopes for the lefty and aren't giving up on him just yet. If Minor does make the rotation this spring, then look to him as a late-round Fantasy option in deep formats.

Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel working on changeup
Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves RP Craig Kimbrel is working on locating his changeup, which he may use during the season if he's able to master it. But even if it's not ready for prime time, throwing it helps stretch him out for his fastball. He has yet to throw his curveball.
Analysis: While Kimbrel struggled at the end of the 2011 season, he still dominated hitters for most of the season on his way to winning NL rookie of the year honors. It's good that he is working to get better, but he shouldn't have to change too much since he has been a smash hit since debuting in 2010. Kimbrel is a must-own Fantasy RP and will likely be the first RP selected in many drafts this spring.

Roy Oswalt
Phillies not in running for Oswalt?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. defused a FOXSports.com report that his team remained in the hunt to re-sign Roy Oswalt. "We really don't have any room for him," Amaro told MLB.com. "We have five, six starters, and our resources are about where we want to be right now. I think he wouldn't mind coming back, but I don't know that's feasible or a real possibility."
Analysis: The Phillies surfaced as a possible destination for Oswalt after rumors surfaced again that the team wanted to trade Joe Blanton. It seems the Phillies have no immediate plans to bring Oswalt aboard, but we will have to continue to track his offseason progress. Fortunately, all of the teams linked to Oswalt are expected contenders, but even so, Oswalt would be at best a No. 4 Fantasy SP given his chronic back woes and declining numbers.

 
 
 
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