Projecting AL first basemen with RC/27

The first installments in the RC/27 projections took stock of catchers, the weakest position in terms of Fantasy production. Continuing around the horn, we move on to the opposite extreme at first base. Hitters who appear mediocre as first basemen would be superstars if they wore the tools of ignorance. But the likes of Ryan Garko are not superstars, because they can be replaced by any number of other first basemen without their owner suffering a significant drop in production. There are also plenty of productive first basemen in the upper echelons of both leagues, so even though the position boasts some of the highest-scoring Fantasy players, it isn't necessarily home to the most valuable Fantasy players.

From the lists featured below, it might look like there aren't many American League first basemen to go around, but don't be deceived. There are several regulars who will be eligible to play first base in Fantasy this year, but they will have greater value when used at a less-stacked position. The most notable omissions from these lists are Chris Davis, Hank Blalock, Carlos Guillen and Nick Swisher. They will be ranked and assessed among the third basemen, except for Swisher, who will be included among the outfielders.

The Elite: Mark Teixeira projects to be the top producer among first basemen, at least on a per-game basis. He is the only regular American League first baseman who has compiled an RC/27 greater than 8.0 over each of the last two seasons. Tex's string of hyper-productive campaigns actually stretches back to 2004. He has hit more than thirty homers in each of those years, and his only two sub-.300 campaigns occurred when he posted strangely low BABIP rates. Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Youkilis both have the potential to combine a .300 average with 30 home runs, though Cabrera has done it just twice and Youkilis just missed doing it for the first time in 2008.

Cohort Analysis: Kevin Youkilis vs. Miguel Cabrera. Youkilis had the third-highest Fantasy Value of any American League first baseman last year, but to stay at that level, he will need to maintain the huge strides that he made in his AB/HR rate. Cabrera also has something to prove, as his run scoring has dropped from 112 to 91 to 85 over the last three seasons. To reverse this trend, he will need to rediscover a more patient approach, as his walk and pitches per plate appearance rates have fallen over the same period. While the players are comparable from a Fantasy perspective, Youkilis' recent trends have been more promising than Cabrera's.

Solid Mixed-Leaguers: It's not just the elite first basemen who can club 30 homers. Each of the four players listed in the group below has a realistic shot at owning that distinction in '09. With the exception of Justin Morneau, however, none of these hitters is likely to challenge the .300 mark. That's what separates this group out. CBSSports.com actually projects a .310 average for Morneau, but achieving that would most likely require him to continue an amazing streak. Morneau has cut down his whiff rate in every single season since his rookie year. If he can continue to manage that feat and regain some of the power he lost last year, he deserves a bump up to the elite category, but I think it's more likely that he remains a step behind Youkilis and Cabrera.

Cohort Analysis: Jason Giambi vs. Justin Morneau. At first glance, the rankings on CBSSports.com seem to suggest that Giambi and Morneau are anything but comparable. Morneau is ranked third among American League first basemen, while Giambi is no better than 11th. Even if we exclude players who are eligible at other positions, that just boosts Giambi's standing to eighth. How is it, then, that Giambi is projected to have lower AB/HR and AB/RBI rates than Morneau? Much of what is weighing down Giambi's ranking is his projected plate appearance total, which is just 80 percent of Morneau's. Given that Giambi has exceeded his projected 540 plate appearances just once in the last five years, the assumption of less frequent playing time is warranted. Morneau gets a distinctive edge here, despite his relative lack of power.

AL-Only Leaguers: These are the players who would be on the bubble for mixed-league consideration, but are solid additions to an AL-only roster. If this portion of the first baseman pool looks surprisingly thin, that's because it's actually larger than it appears here. This is the RC/27 neighborhood where you will also find players like Hank Blalock, Chris Davis and Carlos Guillen, who are eligible at other positions, and will actually have greater value there. Then again, they're also part of the same CI and DH pool as the players who are only eligible at first base. Jacobs is the only 30-homer threat here, and only Garko and Butler are poised to hit as high as .280.

Cohort Analysis: Mike Jacobs vs. Paul Konerko vs. Billy Butler. I know we all heard this quote too often during Super Bowl week, but to paraphrase Dennis Green, Jacobs is who we thought he was. He'll mash, maybe for 30 homers again, but he won't hit for average or get on base. Konerko should match Jacobs' power and better his average, but were last year's injuries and decreasing power a sign of things to come? Meanwhile, there's Butler, who is just two years removed from tearing up Triple-A as a 21 year-old. He has already shown the ability to hit for contact as a major leaguer, but the question is how soon the bombs and walks will come. Jacobs is the most known quantity in this cohort, but Butler is the clear pick for owners willing to gamble on upside.

The Rest: At 32, Overbay is not a strong bet to reverse the double curse of declining power and contact skills. Barton is a selective hitter, but the last time he showed legitimate first base power for any length of time was in Low Class-A ball. LaHair has some power, and by comparison with fellow Mariner Russell Branyan, he's a real contact hitter. He may also shine compared with other recent Seattle first basemen (Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson), but his .250 average won't make many friends in your Fantasy clubhouse.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.