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Identifying National League rookies to target

Al Melchior
Special to CBSSports.com
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From Pedro Feliz to Braden Looper to Garret Anderson, the National League's archetypes of bland consistency don't make for inspiring late-round draft action, and they don't make for Fantasy success either. By passing on a replacement-level Fantasy player like Feliz, your worst-case scenario is to pick up a similar hitter, like Geoff Blum or Andy LaRoche via trade or waivers. Better yet, you can use your pick to nab someone like Mat Gamel. He might not play this year, or he might bring you 20 homers and a nice average. If he doesn't work out, chances are good that Blum will still be there on waivers, waiting for your call. If he does work out, you just became the target of envy (or trade offers) from Feliz' owner.

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Adding on to the previous column's list of American League prospects, the National League players featured below have no guarantee of making their squads, and they aren't even competing for a regular big league gig. However, each could be Fantasy gold by midseason, due to their developing skill set and a hole or two in their organization's depth chart. The exclusion of rookies like Jordan Zimmerman, Carlos Carrasco and Gaby Sanchez isn't meant to indicate that they aren't better options than vets like Feliz who have a job locked up. It just means that, because they are in the hunt for a full-time job, they are somewhat more visible on other owners' radar.

Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta: The Braves have improved their rotation, but with Tom Glavine holding down the fifth spot, there's no telling how soon they could need a replacement. Hanson could provide a nice midseason pitching fix. Though he has struggled with control at High Class A and Double-A, he has piled up impressive strikeout rates at every one of his minor league stops. With Hanson's fastball rising into the upper 90s this spring, it would not be a stretch to see him as a coveted source of Ks for Fantasy later this summer.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9
2008 Mississippi (Double-A) 3.8 10.5 0.8

Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee: Late last season, I wrote that Gamel is a third base prospect who projects to hit like a solid corner outfielder. That projection may not come to life this season, but even in '09, he could certainly be a borderline mixed league player at best or a useful NL-only player at worst. The 15 to 20 homers and .285 batting average Gamel could bring to the table are more than what you can expect from the Brewers' incumbent at third, Bill Hall.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power BABIP
2008 Huntsville (Double-A) 10% 22% 0.208 0.392

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh: Steve Pearce's calf injury may not be serious, but it shows how tenuous the Bucs' outfield situation is. Should one of their starters go down, who can they count on? Eric Hinske profiles as more of a utility player, and Nyjer Morgan offers the promise of speed and an empty .280 average. The Pirates may want to give McCutchen a chance to bring his on-base skills and moderate power to the big league club, representing an upgrade over what Morgan could provide.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power BABIP
2007 Altoona (Double-A) 9% 18% 0.126 0.298
2008 Indianapolis (Triple-A) 12% 17% 0.115 0.327

Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado: In an effort to promote himself as one of baseball's rising stars, Fowler is appearing on Dave Letterman every night this week to demonstrate each one of his five tools. While that's not actually true, Fowler could become a household name in Fantasy circles this summer, even without help from popular late-night talk show hosts. With Brad Hawpe as the only experienced starter in the Rockies' outfield, Fowler may have a chance to step in if the new regulars in center or left field get off to slow starts. On the minor league level, his tools have translated into an ability to hit well over .300, collect piles of doubles and triples, and steal 20 or more bases. Even as he adjusts to major league pitching, Fowler could have a Randy Winn-type season in his rookie year.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power BABIP
2008 Tulsa (Double-A) 13% 21% 0.180 0.409

Gerardo Parra, OF, Arizona: If Eric Byrnes doesn't return full strength from his hamstring injuries, Parra could have a golden opportunity to find regular at-bats in the Snakes' outfield. There is surprisingly little talent behind Byrnes on the Arizona depth chart. Should Byrnes go down, Plan B is to move Conor Jackson to left field, as Bob Melvin did last year. That is only viable, though, if Chad Tracy is healthy and productive enough to play first base every day. Parra's potential to hit for a high average and produce upwards of 30 steals a season makes him a superior alternative to options like Alex Romero and Brandon Watson.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power BABIP
2008 Mobile (Double-A) 8% 13% 0.144 0.304

Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis: Rasmus demonstrates the pitfalls of projecting major league performance based on Double-A stats alone. To judge by his 2007 numbers from the Texas League, Rasmus would be far and away the most productive of the four outfielders featured here. A quick perusal of the minor league park factors on Baseball Think Factory reveals that Rasmus' home in '07, Springfield's (Mo.) Hammons Field, is one of the most homer-friendly parks in the minors. After moving on to Triple-A, Rasmus' numbers wound up looking much less imposing. While Rasmus has the least potential for a high batting average out of this group of outfielders, his short-term upside is as a 20-20 hitter if given a whole season's worth of at-bats. With the move of Skip Schumaker and Joe Mather to the infield and Chris Duncan's health being a constant concern, there could be room for Rasmus in the Cards' lineup in the very near future.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power BABIP
2007 Springfield (Double-A) 13% 23% 0.276 0.301
2008 Memphis (Triple-A) 13% 22% 0.145 0.290

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.

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Player News
Dodgers won't name permanent closer
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(12:01 am ET) Dodgers manager Don Mattingly would not reveal who his closer is to reporters. However, the skipper seems to be leaning toward Kenley Jansen over Brandon League in high-stress situations based on recent use, according to MLB.com.

"I know who I want to use. But I don't know if I want to anoint anybody," said Mattingly. "I'd really like to see the bullpen get its confidence back and some semblance of order and get the guys in the roles we designed. I know where I want it to go, it just hasn't gone there. They set the roles the way they are pitching. Now it's hard to say, 'That guy deserves that inning.'"

League has a 5.51 ERA through 16 appearances while Jansen has three losses and has allowed three homers in his last 5 1/3 innings of work.

Hiram Burgos struggles again
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Brewers starting pitcher Hiram Burgos pitched poorly againTuesday against the Dodgers, but he was able to avoid dropping his third decision in a row.

Burgos exited the game after just 3 1/3 innings, after allowing two runs on six hits and four walks.  He allowed three hits and two walks in the fourth inning before being pulled, with runners on the corners and one out. Fortunately, the bullpen bailed him out, as they did not allow either of his inherited runners to score. The Brewers would go on to win, 5-2, though Burgos earned a no-decision in the start. 

Burgos now has a 6.44 ERA in six starts, with a 1-2 record. He is scheduled to mke his next start Monday against the Twins. 


Scott Elbert could return in a week
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Dodgers reliever Scott Elbert, who is rehab assignment with Double-A Chattanooga, could be back with the club in a week, according to MLB.com.

Elbert is expected to pitch three times in four days in the minors. His fastball velocity has increased to 90-92 mph during his most recent outings, according to manager Don Mattingly. He has struck out two and allowed one run over two innings of work at Double-A.

Yoenis Cespedes provides only run on HR
by Jeff Lippman | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes homered in the third inning Tuesday night against Yu Darvish in Texas. It was the only run scored by either team in the 1-0 Oakland win. 

Cespedes homered for the ninth time this season with two outs against Darvish to win it for the A's. He went 1 for 5 in the game with two strikeouts and is batting .211. 

Despite his low batting average, Cespedes has hit in seven of his last 10 games with three homers and four RBI over that span. He has 22 RBI on the year with 22 runs scored. 


Josh Beckett throws off flat ground
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Dodgers starting pitcher Josh Beckett,  who is on the 15-day disabled list with a left groin strain, threw off flat ground without discomfort Tuesday for the first time.

Beckett, who was unable to throw on flat ground in Atlanta over the weekend, is making progress and is expected to throw off a mound soon before he's allowed to run, according to MLB.com.

Grant Balfour goes 1-2-3 for save
by Jeff Lippman | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Athletics closer Grant Balfour recorded a 1-2-3 inning for a save Tuesday at Texas. Balfour held down the ninth in a 1-0 victory. 

Balfour earned his ninth save of the season as he struck out one in a perfect frame to protect Dan Straily's gem. He needed just 12 pitches, throwing seven for strikes. 

Balfour has earned saves in three straight and six of seven. He's 9 for 9 in save chances on the year with a solid 1.47 ERA. He's also struck out 20 over 18 1/3. 


Jose Fernandez solid despite early exit
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) The Marlins appeared to have let go of the reigns a bit for starting pitcher Jose Fernandez, but he was apparently back on a pitch count Tuesday against the Phillies.

Despite allowing just one run, Fernandez was pulled after throwing five innings and 79 pitches, matching his lowest total of the season. He allowed just a solo home run in the outing, but earned a no-decision in a 7-3 loss.

Fernandez allowed five hits and one walk, while striking out two batters. This was the first time since April 29 that he has not pitched at least six innings in a start. He lowered his ERA to 3.31 through his first nine career starts.

Fernandez is set to make his net start Monday, against the Rays. He has yet to face Tampa Bay in his career. 


Yu Darvish suffers 1-0 defeat
by Jeff Lippman | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Rangers starter Yu Darvish wasn't at his sharpest Tuesday at home against the Athletics. He may not have been able to avoid losing even if he was. 

Darvish dropped his record to 7-2 on the year with a 2.84 ERA as he took the loss against Oakland's Dan Straily, who pitched seven shutout innings as the bullpen finished the job in the 1-0 game. 

The Texas ace allowed just one run on five hits and three walks over six innings. The lone run he allowed came on a third-inning solo homer by Yoenis Cespedes. Darvish struck out five. 

The 26-year-old won his seventh game his last time out despite giving up four runs. He hasn't had a double-digit strikeout game in a while, but still has 91 on the year over 66 2/3 innings to lead the American League. 

Darvish will look to get back on the winning track when he next takes the ball Monday during a doubleheader at Arizona. 


Hanley Ramirez starts running
by Igor Mello | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez tested his hamstring running in the outfield prior to Tuesday's game, MLB.com reports.

Ramirez has recently started taking ground balls and hitting, but is still two weeks away from playing, according to manager Don Mattingly. Ramirez had played just four games since returning from the disabled list with a thumb injury. He went 5 for 11 with two doubles, a home run and an RBI before landing on the disabled list again.

Offense awakens for Tyler Cloyd's first win
by Chris Towers | CBSSports.com
(5/21/2013) Phillies starting pitcher Tyler Cloyd pitched well again in his second start Tuesday against the Marlins, and this time the offense picked him up for a win.

Cloyd held the Marlins to just two runs in seven innings of work, as he allowed eight hits, just two of them for extra-bases. He struck out five and walked just two, while throwing 62 of 105 pitches for strikes.

Cloyd got plenty of run support, after earning a no decision in a 3-2 loss the last time out. The Phillies won, 7-3 Tuesday, giving Cloyd his first win of the season.

Cloyd is set to take on the Red Sox in Boston for his next start, scheduled for Monday. 


 
 
 
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