Identifying National League rookies to target
From Pedro Feliz to Braden Looper to Garret Anderson, the National League's archetypes of bland consistency don't make for inspiring late-round draft action, and they don't make for Fantasy success either. By passing on a replacement-level Fantasy player like Feliz, your worst-case scenario is to pick up a similar hitter, like Geoff Blum or Andy LaRoche via trade or waivers. Better yet, you can use your pick to nab someone like Mat Gamel. He might not play this year, or he might bring you 20 homers and a nice average. If he doesn't work out, chances are good that Blum will still be there on waivers, waiting for your call. If he does work out, you just became the target of envy (or trade offers) from Feliz' owner.
|
|
|
|
| Download a Draft Kit! | Join a Mock Draft! |
| Sign up to play FREE Fantasy Baseball |
Adding on to the previous column's list of American League prospects, the National League players featured below have no guarantee of making their squads, and they aren't even competing for a regular big league gig. However, each could be Fantasy gold by midseason, due to their developing skill set and a hole or two in their organization's depth chart. The exclusion of rookies like Jordan Zimmerman, Carlos Carrasco and Gaby Sanchez isn't meant to indicate that they aren't better options than vets like Feliz who have a job locked up. It just means that, because they are in the hunt for a full-time job, they are somewhat more visible on other owners' radar.
Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta: The Braves have improved their rotation, but with Tom Glavine holding down the fifth spot, there's no telling how soon they could need a replacement. Hanson could provide a nice midseason pitching fix. Though he has struggled with control at High Class A and Double-A, he has piled up impressive strikeout rates at every one of his minor league stops. With Hanson's fastball rising into the upper 90s this spring, it would not be a stretch to see him as a coveted source of Ks for Fantasy later this summer.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 |
| 2008 | Mississippi (Double-A) | 3.8 | 10.5 | 0.8 |
Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee: Late last season, I wrote that Gamel is a third base prospect who projects to hit like a solid corner outfielder. That projection may not come to life this season, but even in '09, he could certainly be a borderline mixed league player at best or a useful NL-only player at worst. The 15 to 20 homers and .285 batting average Gamel could bring to the table are more than what you can expect from the Brewers' incumbent at third, Bill Hall.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP |
| 2008 | Huntsville (Double-A) | 10% | 22% | 0.208 | 0.392 |
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh: Steve Pearce's calf injury may not be serious, but it shows how tenuous the Bucs' outfield situation is. Should one of their starters go down, who can they count on? Eric Hinske profiles as more of a utility player, and Nyjer Morgan offers the promise of speed and an empty .280 average. The Pirates may want to give McCutchen a chance to bring his on-base skills and moderate power to the big league club, representing an upgrade over what Morgan could provide.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP |
| 2007 | Altoona (Double-A) | 9% | 18% | 0.126 | 0.298 |
| 2008 | Indianapolis (Triple-A) | 12% | 17% | 0.115 | 0.327 |
Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado: In an effort to promote himself as one of baseball's rising stars, Fowler is appearing on Dave Letterman every night this week to demonstrate each one of his five tools. While that's not actually true, Fowler could become a household name in Fantasy circles this summer, even without help from popular late-night talk show hosts. With Brad Hawpe as the only experienced starter in the Rockies' outfield, Fowler may have a chance to step in if the new regulars in center or left field get off to slow starts. On the minor league level, his tools have translated into an ability to hit well over .300, collect piles of doubles and triples, and steal 20 or more bases. Even as he adjusts to major league pitching, Fowler could have a Randy Winn-type season in his rookie year.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP |
| 2008 | Tulsa (Double-A) | 13% | 21% | 0.180 | 0.409 |
Gerardo Parra, OF, Arizona: If Eric Byrnes doesn't return full strength from his hamstring injuries, Parra could have a golden opportunity to find regular at-bats in the Snakes' outfield. There is surprisingly little talent behind Byrnes on the Arizona depth chart. Should Byrnes go down, Plan B is to move Conor Jackson to left field, as Bob Melvin did last year. That is only viable, though, if Chad Tracy is healthy and productive enough to play first base every day. Parra's potential to hit for a high average and produce upwards of 30 steals a season makes him a superior alternative to options like Alex Romero and Brandon Watson.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP |
| 2008 | Mobile (Double-A) | 8% | 13% | 0.144 | 0.304 |
Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis: Rasmus demonstrates the pitfalls of projecting major league performance based on Double-A stats alone. To judge by his 2007 numbers from the Texas League, Rasmus would be far and away the most productive of the four outfielders featured here. A quick perusal of the minor league park factors on Baseball Think Factory reveals that Rasmus' home in '07, Springfield's (Mo.) Hammons Field, is one of the most homer-friendly parks in the minors. After moving on to Triple-A, Rasmus' numbers wound up looking much less imposing. While Rasmus has the least potential for a high batting average out of this group of outfielders, his short-term upside is as a 20-20 hitter if given a whole season's worth of at-bats. With the move of Skip Schumaker and Joe Mather to the infield and Chris Duncan's health being a constant concern, there could be room for Rasmus in the Cards' lineup in the very near future.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP |
| 2007 | Springfield (Double-A) | 13% | 23% | 0.276 | 0.301 |
| 2008 | Memphis (Triple-A) | 13% | 22% | 0.145 | 0.290 |
| |
| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.