'09 Draft Prep: Updated Top 25 rookies to target

What in the name of late Octobers?

David Price is back in Triple-A. If you have lived under a rock this spring, it comes as a complete shock.

"No, I knew it was coming," Price said after being demoted to the minors, "but right now, it kind of stinks a little bit."

The Rays' ALCS Game 7 closer was supposed to be taking flight as one of the aces of baseball this April, not toiling back in the Triple-A holding pattern.

But, it makes sense, if you recall what made Price such an impactful late-season pitcher last year. His first professional season started last May 22. That was the only reason he was as fresh as he was Oct. 19, when he was closing out the Red Sox, and Oct. 29 when he pitched the Rays' last inning of the World Series in the rain-suspended Game 5.

See, to build a pitching staff that will be strong after six months of baseball -- geez, the baseball season is freakin' long -- you have to either count on 12 pitchers conditioned to do six-plus months of pitching or count on organizational depth and reinforcements.

Price is clearly not conditioned to pitch six -- or seven -- months of baseball. He is the primary reinforcement.

"We have obviously spent a lot of time talking about this," Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. "When we came into camp, we came in with an open mind, knowing full well that there were certain developmental issues that we wanted him to focus on and also the workload. And just the increase and how we're going to monitor that."

The Rays can say they are sending Price to the minor leagues to work on things. Fans might think they are doing it to be cheap, like they were with 2008 AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria and the B.J. Upton's and Delmon Young's before him.

Hogwash.

Price is one of the top 25 pitchers in all of baseball right now, be it March, April or May -- for as long as he can pitch this season.

The Rays are just building pitching depth, affording them the chance to keep the Jeff Niemanns and Jason Hammels on the staff now to eat the less meaningful April and May innings, so Price can be fresh to dominate in the September and maybe October ones.

"We had a lot of conversations about ways to get creative," Friedman said, "and went through it for the last two or three weeks at length and ultimately decided that all things considered that this was the right move for David and, in turn, the organization.

"David will help us win games in 2009."

Price's changeup is good enough to win now for the Rays and Fantasy owners. He doesn't need to blow away overmatched Triple-A hitters in April and May to prove it.

"Absolutely," he said, debunking claims his changeup needs work. "I think that's a non-issue. That was way better than my slider, so I don't think that's an issue."

So, the question now is where do we draft Price?

Strangely, his demotion merely drops him to where he should have been going all along, in the middle rounds. He is a stashee in all leagues with reserves and maybe only a late-round flier in leagues without them. You could be taking a zero until June 1 -- although this writer says he returns well before that.

The Rays will be five games behind the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East with their fifth starter getting bounced in the fourth inning just about every time out. Price will be back in Triple-A, sitting 5-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 27 innings. That will change their plans in a hurry.

Somewhat surprisingly, David Price will start the year in Triple-A. (Getty Images)

The 23-year-old pitched around 139 1/3 innings between spring training, the minors, majors and the postseason in 2008. Tampa wants to ensure he doesn't exceed that total by more than 20 percent this season. That is about 170 total innings, but that counts spring training and the postseason.

Our projections had forecasted exactly 169. Chopping off those 27 we see coming in Triple-A -- which means just about all of that 20 percent increase being absorbed in the minors, by the way -- Price becomes our No. 55 starting pitcher in Fantasy Baseball. That makes him a $6 bid in mixed leagues -- although he is sure to go for far more -- and a $15 bid in AL-only formats. Still, he will go for far more, justifiably so.

He is a talent you just cannot find on a street corner or the midseason waiver wire.

We project 9-7 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.231 WHIP and 135 strikeouts in 135 innings. Capable of so much more, sure, but we cannot project more than the Rays are saying he will give us.

The shoulder is a complex and fragile joint, layered with muscles, tendons and tissue. The consequences of overstretching it can be disastrous. Ask Mark Prior. Pedro Martinez. Matt Clement. Or any other pitcher to have undergone major shoulder surgery on the labrum and/or rotator cuff.

We don't like the fact our preseason Nos. 1 (Price) and 2 (Matt Wieters) will be starting in the minor leagues, but we can understand it -- even justify it in the case of Price.

With the season now very close, we provide an upgraded Top 25 rookies to target on Draft Day. This is a living, breathing list that can change on a moment's notice. It is frankly that reason alone that makes us say drafting rookies in Fantasy Baseball as anything more than mid- to late-round fliers -- no matter how talented -- is a crapshoot and a dangerous step into the unknown.

They can be heroes or big fat zeroes.

Updated Top 25 rookies to target

Projected postseason honors

And we also update our projected All-Rookie Team, guys we expect to make an impact this year, and the All-Prospect Team, those that will be the hottest names in the minors this season at their positions.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Top 25 Rookies in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.