By the Numbers: Is Sheff finally cooked?
Just when you thought the Sheff was cooked, he's back in a regular role. While several players have received Fantasy amnesty from owners for poor performance or spotty playing time, Sheffield has had to bide his time just to get noticed. In all fairness, it took Carlos Delgado's DL stint to earn Sheffield regular playing time, and owners have been quick to respond, making Sheffield one of the most sought-after National League waiver pickups for Week 8.
Sheffield's early adopters have been rewarded with a performance that is not exactly vintage, but still much better than what he offered last year. His batting average currently sits 29 points higher than it did in 2008, and his .391 on-base percentage does hearken back to his glory days. It's a good sign that Sheffield's walk rate and pitches per plate appearance are better than they have been in years, though only more playing time will tell if they will remain this high. Less encouraging are his .286 BABIP, which looks completely out of line with his line drive ratio, and his 55 percent groundball rate. The former suggests that his still-modest .254 batting average is a fluke, while the latter indicates that we may never see the return of his home run power. With so few at-bats to date, things could still even out for Sheffield, but at this rate, he won't have much to offer owners outside of walks.
More guys in demand
Nick Johnson, 1B, Washington
Week 7 Ownership: 39 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 65 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Even in his best seasons, Johnson was never a .300 hitter, but he's been one in '09 thanks to the piles of singles he has been collecting. His 38 singles ties him for ninth in the majors, but he has only 10 extra-base hits (or 14 fewer than teammate Ryan Zimmerman). That can happen when 28 percent of your hit balls are liners, but only 31 percent are flyballs. It's not as if Johnson has turned into a slow-footed Juan Pierre, but his .135 Isolated Power is a far cry from what his owners have been accustomed to in the past. Chances are that some of those line drives will become long flies as the season wears on, but ultimately, it won't matter much. Even as a high-average singles hitter with moderate power and a .400-plus on-base percentage, Johnson has a great deal of value in any format, and especially in Head-to-Head. Grab him while you can.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | Washington | 18% | 20% | 0.230 | 0.323 | 8.5 | 10 |
| 2008 | Washington | 23% | 23% | 0.211 | 0.241 | 6.7 | 0 |
| 2009 | Washington | 14% | 18% | 0.135 | 0.384 | 8.2 | 0 |
Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado
Week 7 Ownership: 19 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 43 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: De La Rosa has pitched well enough to win four or five games, but he is still looking for his first win. Nearly everything he needs for Fantasy (and real world) success has been in place: superb strikeout and home run rates, adequate control and an even-handed .291 BABIP. A little run support would be nice, but he's currently in the bottom 20 among National League starters in that category. De La Rosa should start picking up some wins, but don't look for much improvement in his ERA, even though ERC says it should be much lower than it is. He serves up enough flyballs to be a danger in Coors Field, and he has had just three starts there so far this year. De La Rosa gave up nine of his 13 home runs at home last year, and there is no reason to think the pattern will be different this time around. Even so, owning him means you have a pitcher with a mid-4.00s ERA on your hands who can strike out close to a batter an inning. He's worth a whirl at the back of a mixed league rotation.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Kansas City | 3.7 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.329 | 5.93 |
| 2008 | Colorado | 4.3 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 0.330 | 4.50 |
| 2009 | Colorado | 3.4 | 9.5 | 0.4 | 0.291 | 2.67 |
Other guys drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 7 Ownership | Week 8 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 3. | Juan Pierre, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 52% | 72% | 20% |
| 4. | Dave Bush, SP, Milwaukee | 50% | 67% | 17% |
| 5. | Casey Blake, 3B, L.A. Dodgers | 61% | 74% | 13% |
Guys Dropping Like Flies
Khalil Greene, SS, St. Louis
Week 7 Ownership: 42 percent
Week 8 Ownership: 32 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 2nd (tied)
The Skinny: With a change of scenery and some solid Grapefruit League play, Greene looked ready to leave his miserable 2008 behind. It hasn't played out that way, and now he finds himself on the Cards' bench not even two months into the season. His .202/.281/.303 line isn't far off from last year's .213/.260/.339, but he's arrived there in a different way. Last year's offensive plunge had its roots in declining contact and power. Greene's power hasn't returned, but his strikeout rate has been slashed nearly in half to 14 percent and his walk rate has grown substantially. His batting average and on-base percentage aren't higher because not many balls in play are becoming base hits. Greene's .217 BABIP looks suspicious, given that a healthy 21 percent of the balls he hits are line drives.
Greene won't be able to increase his Fantasy value from the bench, but it's not as if he is stuck behind Hanley Ramirez on the depth chart. Contact-challenged Tyler Greene and slap hitter Brendan Ryan are vulnerable enough to provide their predecessor with a second chance. With a little patience and a vacant reserve slot, it should pay to hang onto Greene while he waits for his opportunity.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2007 | San Diego | 5% | 21% | 0.214 | 0.281 | 4.6 | 4 |
| 2008 | San Diego | 5% | 26% | 0.126 | 0.262 | 2.9 | 5 |
| 2009 | St. Louis | 9% | 14% | 0.101 | 0.217 | 2.7 | 2 |
Guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 7 Ownership | Week 8 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Chris Duncan, OF, St. Louis | 58% | 47% | -11% |
| 2. | Chris B. Young, OF, Arizona | 65% | 55% | -10% |
| 2. | Todd Wellemeyer, SP, St. Louis | 38% | 28% | -10% |
| 5. | Randy Johnson, SP, San Francisco | 75% | 66% | -9% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Base Hits per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
