Sliders: Pavano turning back the clock

Think back to the year 2004.

Ben Roethlisberger had never won a Super Bowl (much less played an NFL down), George W. Bush had just begun his second term in office, and the TV show Lost hadn't even debuted.

Yes, it was a simpler time -- one where championship quarterbacks had two-syllable names and episodic television reigned supreme. But among these signs of the changing times -- these relics, if you will -- one stands out as the most puzzling of all: Carl Pavano won 18 games for the Marlins, breaking out as a Fantasy mainstay after years of steady progress with the Montreal Expos.

And we never heard from him again. Really, not a peep. You'd think he was Dave Chappelle.

Sure, he pitched in a few games -- 26, to be exact, over a four-year span -- but his contributions were so minimal and his outlook so questionable that Fantasy owners never had reason to hold out hope.

In fact, his days as a viable Fantasy option were so far removed from the collective consciousness that he never had a chance to become a running joke on Draft Day. Drafting him would have been less like drafting Milton Bradley and more like drafting David Justice.

So why would you want him now?

Sliders These guys haven't just gotten hot or cold. Their recent play has caused their Fantasy appeal to "slide" one way or another.

Carl Pavano, SP, Indians

Over the first couple weeks of the season, everyone goes OCD over box scores. No potential breakout slips through the cracks because any player with any measure of potential who does anything noteworthy gets a roster spot. But somewhere along the line, the box scores become less of a priority, and that one guy with the discipline to keep checking them ends up reaping the benefits.

Consider Pavano one of those benefits.

He didn't get off to a great start. In fact, he looked on the verge of pitching himself out of the league, allowing nine earned runs in one inning in his first start at Texas. He finished April with a 9.50 ERA and totally off the Fantasy radar, just like during his four years with the Yankees.

Only when the calendar flipped to May did he begin to shake off the rust and recapture the form he showed when last healthy in 2004. Since then, he's gone 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA in eight starts and has a 2.15 ERA over his last four starts.

He's walking hitters at a James Shields or Kevin Slowey-like rate, is on pace for a career high in strikeouts and looks like he picked up right where he left off during his breakout season oh so many years ago.

Forget Chris Carpenter; how has Pavano escaped all the Comeback Player of the Year talk? Geez, he could have a made-for-TV movie.

You have to give him a chance at this point. He won't pitch like an ace, but he could certainly pitch his way into the Derek Lowe or Ted Lilly class of Fantasy starting pitchers -- assuming he doesn't run into more injury trouble, of course.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers

Furcal hasn't made such a smooth recovery from his injury. Then again, he hasn't had five years to bounce back like Carl Pavano has.

And he won't. At age 31, he's already at the point when shortstops begin to change positions. They lose their legs, lose their range and can no longer handle the everyday demands of the most important position on the infield. It doesn't always happen, but it happens often enough.

So Furcal already has that working against him, and then when you throw in the back surgery last year -- a procedure that has a way of changing careers, and not for the better -- he doesn't even look like a major-league regular anymore, much less a viable Fantasy option.

It's a shame, too, because before his back started bothering him last year, he looked like he had taken another step forward, hitting for power right out of the gate when he usually waits until the summer months to heat up.

Well, we haven't quite reached the summer months this year. Could he heat up then?

I don't think so, because his problems so far don't look like another case of early-season struggles. He looks like he just doesn't have the ability anymore. Before his home run Saturday, he hadn't homered or stolen a base since April 25 -- a span of six weeks.

And that "or" is really the deciding factor. Not only has the back injury seemingly sapped Furcal of his power, but he doesn't seem willing to run anymore either. Maybe he could survive without one or the other, but not without both.

If you've already found a replacement for him at shortstop, you shouldn't feel obligated to keep him on your bench. And if you haven't found a replacement for him yet, better get cracking.

Russell Branyan, 1B/3B, Mariners

Enough is enough.

I've stayed far, far away from the Branyan bandwagon, believing I knew better than to trust a career .237 hitter for anything more than a handful of home runs whenever he got hot enough to get consistent playing time.

Because that's exactly the way Branyan worked in the past. Some team would give him a roster spot as a left-handed power bat off the bench. He'd get a random start one day and hit two home runs. He'd keep getting starts and hit five home runs in the span of a week. Then he'd strike out four times in a game and never make contact again.

It happened every year for the last decade. I planned my trips to the beach around it.

But now this: In 211 at-bats, already halfway to his career high, he has a .322 batting and 13 home runs. Come on, Branyan. How could you do this to me? I don't even know who you are anymore!

And with the literal slamming of the door to end that admittedly one-sided spat comes the figurative opening of the door on Branyan as a viable mixed-league option.

I don't really understand it -- not for a 33-year-old who first started playing in the majors in 1998 -- but after two months of it without so much as a hiccup, I have no choice but to believe in it. Maybe the assurance of consistent at-bats for the first time in his career helped even out his performance. That's the popular argument, anyway.

Then again, I heard the reverse argument applied to Ryan Spilborghs this spring -- that everyday at-bats would expose his weaknesses. Funny how that works.

Anyway, add Branyan. He won't hit .320, but if he hits .280, his power numbers will still make him an appealing option. And cut Spilborghs, by the way. Turns out everyday at-bats exposed his weaknesses.

Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, Giants

If you've seen Sandoval play, you can't help but like him. He's more relatable than the average athlete because of his stoutly build, and he has a natural hitting ability that goes beyond anything you'll see in the box score.

But he just doesn't have power right now -- not enough for a corner infielder anyway.

True, not every corner infielder has to hit 30 bombs to have Fantasy significance. Todd Helton and Nick Johnson don't, and I'd call both of them must-owns in all leagues.

But they do something Sandoval doesn't. They draw walks -- lots of them -- which not only earns them points for the walks themselves, but for the runs they score because of the walks.

Sandoval couldn't be any more on the opposite end of the spectrum. He's on pace for a Jeff Francoeur-like 27 walks, which puts him on pace for only 63 runs scored. And considering his lack of home runs puts him on pace for only 72 RBI in that pathetic Giants lineup, what does he really offer other than a useful batting average?

Maybe someday Sandoval will develop enough power to overcome his lack of peripherals, but at this stage of his career, he's the Placido Polanco of corner infielders -- a last resort in mixed leagues, nothing more.

Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox

Admit it: You cut Floyd when he had a 7.92 ERA after his first eight starts.

Yeah, cut him: a 26-year-old coming off a 17-win season. For shame.

And how did that end? With you dropped to your knees, shaking your fist in the air and cursing the fates?

You might see Floyd's rebound -- a 1.82 ERA over his last four starts with 31 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings -- as nothing more than bad timing on your part, but the truth is you shouldn't have doubted him at all.

And I know that's easy to say in retrospect, but you have to consider what makes Floyd so successful in the first place: his curveball.

Time and time again we've seen curveball pitchers struggle early in the season. Brett Myers did last year. Josh Beckett did this year. A.J. Burnett did both last year and this year. They don't come into spring training throwing sweeping hooks, and sometimes they haven't quite found the pitch by the time the season starts.

If you've already cut Floyd, you might still have a chance to get him back. And you want to. He's much closer to the pitcher we saw over his last four starts than his first eight. He'll get blown out every now and then, on days when he can't get his curveball to break like it should, but not with even close to the frequency we saw over the first two months of the season.

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros

If you've paid close attention to Tejada's numbers during his 17-game hitting streak, you might think he's regained his status as an elite Fantasy shortstop.

"It's a resurgence," you say. "He's the same dominant player from Oakland and Baltimore."

Well, I hate to burst a bubble at the peak of its enormity, but Tejada isn't the same player all over again -- not unless you mean the one who hit .283 with 13 home runs for Houston last season.

I said it. Yeah, I see his .354 batting average, but I don't think he can come close to sustaining it.

And I don't think I'm telling you anything you don't already know. Only four times in his career has he finished with a .300 batting average, with his .330 mark in 2006 an outlier -- a last hurrah before his sudden decline. He's on pace for an insanely low 17 walks this season, which means if he keeps swinging at so many pitches, he eventually has to start swinging at the wrong ones.

Right? These warning signs shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.

But you might overlook the effect his batting average has on his other numbers. Even at its unsustainable level, he's on pace for only 17 home runs, 92 runs scored and 95 RBI -- respectable totals, for sure, but ones sustained by an unrealistically high success rate. Once Tejada loses some points on his batting average, the whole house of cards will go along with it.

I mean it. For as much as he disappointed last year, he still finished with 13 home runs, 92 runs scored and 66 RBI. Knock 60 points off his batting average, and he's suddenly back on course, give or take a few RBI.

That doesn't mean you should release Tejada or even bench him. Few shortstops in baseball can produce numbers even that good. But Tejada still ranks on the lower-end of the must-start shortstops, and if you can get a good return for him now, don't hesitate.

Change-ups For every correct prediction, there is an equal and opposite incorrect prediction. At times, I have to "change up" some of my own just to save face.

Ian Stewart, 2B/3B/OF, Rockies

Sometimes, they just make it too easy.

You know, Stewart actually did me a favor. I had yet to go out on just the wrong limb at just the wrong time this year, and that, quite frankly, is Snoozeville.

In case you missed it, Stewart didn't just have a rebound week but the best week of any hitter in baseball, at least according to standard Head-to-Head scoring. He hit four home runs, drove in 12 runs and gave me another reason to cry myself to sleep at night. Eight and counting, people.

So let's reassess, shall we? We kind of have to. Last week, I suggested Stewart might go back to the minor leagues, which sounds absolutely ridiculous now. In fact, the Rockies have hinted he might overtake Garrett Atkins for regular playing time at third base -- a move that would change his prognosis entirely. With the assurance of everyday at-bats, he'd have a chance to work through his struggles without dragging them out for weeks at a time. And if you own him, you could start him with confidence, knowing whenever he hits a cold streak, he has a hot streak waiting on the other side.

We might have just witnessed the beginning of a breakout. You can't match Stewart's power potential at second base, so don't let him go unowned.

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