By the Numbers: Are Rasmus, Reimold for real?

Rookies are always a challenge to project, and this year's crop has proven to be no exception. Prior to the exhibition season, we published the RC/27 projections for every position player who appeared to have a reasonable chance of starting the year as a regular. Most of the rookies in this group have performed well below their projections, and some have been demoted to the minors.

On the other hand, there were 10 rookies who were left out of the projections who have already accumulated at least 80 at-bats this season. Some of these hitters, like Chris Coghlan and Nolan Reimold, have been valuable enough to Fantasy owners that they deserve to be competing in mixed leagues.

With 10 weeks of data already in the books, but a majority of the season still ahead of us, it's as good a time as any to update our snapshot of the 2009 rookie class. Are Coghlan and Reimold legitimate mixed leaguers and possibly even Rookie of the Year candidates? Did Travis Snider and Jordan Schafer really deserve their demotions? What have we learned about Jason Jaramillo since he's been holding Ryan Doumit's place behind the dish in Pittsburgh?

We will evaluate the ever-shifting rookie landscape with a look at those who we expected to make an impact as well as those who weren't supposed to. You'll find relative unknowns like Brian Barden and Rob Johnson, who have gained surprising amounts of playing time, but we'll pass on higher profile prospects like Matt Wieters and Gordon Beckham until they've logged more plate appearances.

Exceeding Expectations

After a lackluster Triple-A campaign, Colby Rasmus has been a pleasant surprise in his first big-league go-around. The power that he displayed in Double-A two years ago has returned and he is striking out less often against major league pitching than he did in the upper minors. Elvis Andrus' improvements in power and contact have been even more pronounced than Rasmus'. It defies logic how this 20 year-old could be this much better in the majors than he was in Double-A, and his .266 batting average would be higher still if he were having better luck with BABIP (currently at .294 despite a 20 percent line drive rate). Owners who have branded Rasmus and Andrus as sub-.250 hitters unworthy of mixed league play may need to reevaluate their perceptions of these rookies. Both current and prospective owners need to monitor their stats, as it's still too early to know if they can keep this up over the long haul. For owners willing to take a chance, Rasmus and Andrus are still available in a majority of the leagues on CBSSports.com.

Coming into spring training, Dexter Fowler and Brett Gardner appeared to be blocked out of everyday roles, so neither received an RC/27 projection. I'll need to take a mulligan on that call. Fowler has been the Rockies' center fielder since opening day, while Gardner has been in and out of the Yankee lineup. Though their playing time has been a surprise, their productivity has not. Both had minor league numbers that showed they could hit doubles and triples, draw walks and steal bases, but their whiff rates left doubts about their ability to post a decent batting average. Fowler's struggles with strikeouts are reflected in his .255 average, but his doubles power has translated well from Double-A to the majors. Meanwhile, Gardner has mustered only eight extra-base hits in 127 at-bats, but a surprisingly robust .276 average has compensated for the lack of power. That average is supported by a strikeout rate that is lower than those he had posted at any level. Both players are roughly where they should be, given their minor league histories -- still growing into their skill sets, but playing well enough to be useful in AL- or NL-only leagues. Fowler should only get better and better, but Gardner will probably get worse before he resumes his progress. His improved contact is too random, too drastic, and accomplished over too few at-bats to be viewed as legitimate.

Lagging Behind

None of the players listed below were expected to be anything more than a middle-of-the-pack regular, but then again, middle-of-the-pack is not a bad place for a rookie to be. Each of the six rookies in this group will need a tall ladder to reach mediocrity, and three of them -- Travis Snider, Jordan Schafer and Cameron Maybin -- have slumped their way back to Triple-A. Schafer and Maybin clearly weren't ready, displaying very little power and even less strike zone judgment. Snider didn't perform much worse than his projection, and if not for his demotion, he would be in a similar category with Fowler and Gardner. Given his minor league stats, it's not clear why the Jays were expecting more from Snider, and they probably should have gone with Jose A. Bautista in the first place.

Chris Getz and Luis Valbuena have also struggled, but their respective teams continue to give them frequent playing time. Getz has done his usual good job of making contact, but he has just a .242 average to show for it, due to a lack of power and a 50 percent ground ball rate. Valbuena has flashed some doubles power, but frequent whiffs have dragged his average below .200. Both power and contact skills have gone AWOL for Travis Ishikawa, so the Giants have relegated him to a bench role.

Though each of these players has been a disappointment, their poor play shouldn't have derailed anyone's plans for capturing a Fantasy title. None of them promised to be useful in anything other than a deep league, at least for this year, though Getz and Ishikawa had the most potential to contribute in Fantasy right away. At this point, none of these players is worth an active roster spot in any format. Because Getz continues to be in the White Sox lineup, is picking up some steals, and has shown the ability to hit for moderate power, he alone is worth reserving or scouting.

Draft Day Afterthoughts

For a group of players who were on virtually no one's radar on draft day, there's a nice collection of Fantasy contributors on this list. Only Brian Barden, Adam Rosales and Rob Johnson have failed to show a skill set worthy of a Fantasy roster spot. Ryan Hanigan and Jason Jaramillo rank second and third in batting average among NL catchers with at least 100 at-bats, and both have earned that status by being very selective at the plate. Neither's whiff rate is likely to remain at its current level, which is unfortunate for their owners, since neither possesses much power or speed. Even so, both catchers should continue to be productive for NL-only owners, at least until Joey Votto (whose arrival will shift Ramon Hernandez back behind the plate) and Ryan Doumit, respectively, replace them in the lineup.

The outfielders on this list -- Nolan Reimold, Chris Coghlan and Gerardo Parra -- have outshone the more anticipated trio of Snider, Schafer and Maybin. Reimold's arrival was neither eagerly awaited nor widely celebrated; he was activated in just six percent of our leagues the week after his callup. Now as we approach the halfway point of the season, Reimold is making a strong case for AL Rookie of the Year. Coghlan and Parra rely on contact, low flyball rates and speed to generate Fantasy value, and they have come through with the goods so far. Both are playing well enough to deserve an OF slot in NL-only leagues, and Coghlan's value is enhanced by his eligibility at third base.

Nearly all of this year's rookies have been surprises, both in good and bad ways. The payoff for suffering through weeks of unproductive play from Maybin or Ishikawa or missing the boat on Rasmus or Reimold is that it provides a reminder of two important lessons. When it comes to assessing rookies, we can't put too much faith in small samples in the upper minors. Reimold may not have the pedigree of youngsters like Snider, Schafer and Maybin, but his more extensive track record of success at Double-A and Triple-A should have told us that he was better prepared to succeed in Fantasy, at least for this year. Also, we can often miss out on getting players who look like victims of numbers games. Back in March, Fowler, Coghlan and Parra didn't seem to have anywhere to play, but all were regulars by mid-May. Even if a player seems to be the odd man out, it can't hurt to stash and scout prospects who have the skills to play everyday in the majors.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.