By the Numbers: Storylines worth analyzing
We are just about to head over the hump of the 2009 season, which offers a good perspective from which to view some of the interesting and surprising stories we have encountered so far. Some of the early season stories -- Adam Jones' potential breakout, Marco Scutaro's unexpected on-base assault -- have already faded from our attention, while others, like David Ortiz' power dropping into the abyss, are still staples of sports talk radio and highlight shows.
Forgotten or not, we will revisit and update some of the more intriguing stories from the first half before we roll down the season's downslope. This week, our focus will be on the early season hitting performances that grabbed our attention. We'll come back to the pitchers right around the All-Star break.
The story ... Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler were neck-and-neck in average draft position and auction value coming into the '09 Fantasy season. Owners seemed to be split on which second baseman was going to be tops in the American League. In mid-February, I thought I had a clear picture of who would have the better year, writing, "whereas Kinsler's batting average could take a serious tumble, Pedroia looks like a legitimate .320 hitter." Kinsler's average has, in fact, plunged 47 points from last year, but he's still been far more valuable than Pedroia. Kinsler's home run power has soared, while Pedroia has mashed only two taters. If Pedroia could have maintained last year's home run rate while keeping up his current batting average on balls in play (BABIP), he would be hitting .309 right now. But alas, he hasn't.
It's not clear where Pedroia's power has gone, but contrary to the theory espoused on his video game ad, it doesn't have much to do with an inability to hit the high inside fastball. According to the pitch type data on Fangraphs.com, Pedroia is seeing almost twice as many changeups as last year, and he's not doing much with them. It's a frustrating time for Pedroia owners, but the good news is that his power is the only skill that has faded since last season. If it returns, he'll deliver more in all categories, including a batting average well over .300.
The story ... Adam Jones was hitting around .340 in late April, suddenly thrusting him into the ranks of the most-popular Fantasy outfielders. Jones was carrying a monster batting average, even though his strikeouts and flyballs were way up from 2008. Many owners, especially those in mixed leagues, took a risk when they activated Jones, given that his improved performance was not backed up by improved skill indicators. It turns out that the risk paid off. He is still hitting over .300, but nowadays he sports strikeout and flyball rates that are considerably lower than last year's. Now it appears that there is no looking back for Jones, as his power and average are not only for real, but clearly mixed-league quality.
The story ... Nyjer Morgan was no sure thing to be a starter coming out of spring training, but he won the left field job and was batting as high as .338 in Week 4. During the height of his hot start, I wrote that Morgan was a legitimate .300 hitter, because of a high BABIP fueled by low flyball rates. Morgan's average has slipped to .270, as he has hit fewer line drives and more flyballs in May and June. His flyball rate is still low at 27 percent, but he will need to hit even fewer of them even to get his average back into .280-.290 territory. He is still well on his way to a 30-plus stolen base season, so even a small boost in his batting average will make him valuable for mixed league owners.
The story ... Marco Scutaro walked his way to a .421 on-base percentage (OBP) in April. I remember hearing some commentator six or seven years ago saying that, if the Mets would just give Scutaro a chance to play everyday, he would be an on-base machine. Two teams and 600-some-odd major league games later, Scutaro was making that analyst very happy. His walk rate for the month of April was a staggering 20 percent, and Scutaro became a hot commodity in any league that rewarded on-base percentage. Now his OBP is down to .388 and his walk rate since April has been a more typical 12 percent. Nothing else about Scutaro's profile looks much different from what he has done over the past four seasons. Because of a lack of many viable shortstop options, Scutaro still holds some value for mixed league owners, but now is a good time to test the trade waters, before his stats deteriorate further.
The story ... Michael Bourn, appearing on track for another subpar season, busts out in May, hitting .389 and stealing seven bases during the first two weeks of the month. Bourn looks like he could carry his hot hitting into the All-Star break and beyond, as he still carries a .300 batting average and has more extra-base hits this year than he did all of last season. His average is likely to decrease a little, because it will be hard for him (or just about anyone else) to maintain a .377 BABIP. Nonetheless, because he is hitting line drives more frequently and cutting back on strikeouts, Bourn's days of sitting on the fringes of NL-only leagues are over. Welcome to the mixed leagues, Michael.
These final two players have stories that date back farther than this spring. Casey Blake and David Ortiz have been notable, not only for what they have (or haven't achieved) this season, but for their notable pre- and post-All Star break splits of the past several years.
The story ... Casey Blake assuages owners' fears that he can't hit in L.A., and has an All-Star caliber first half for the Dodgers. Blake slumped his way to a .251 average after last year's deadline deal from Cleveland, but the problem was not a change of scenery. He was doing what he had done during the second halves of 2006 and 2007, hitting with less power and patience. While players' legendary first-half/second-half tendencies are almost always fallacies, Blake is one hitter who really seems to prefer the season's early months. Here in 2009, he is at it again, with Isolated Power and walk rates well over his career averages. For added good measure, Blake's .298 batting average is getting a big assist from a fluky .345 BABIP. At age 35, it's unlikely that Blake has suddenly become one of the NL's elite third basemen, but it is likely that his second half performance will take a nosedive yet again.
The story ...David Ortiz began the season in a deep offensive slumber and didn't wake up until June. Big Papi is Blake's slow-starting counterpart. He routinely hits for less power before the All-Star break than after, and this year will probably be no exception. Despite his recent surge, Ortiz' Isolated Power is still only .174, which is far lower than any full season rate he has posted since he was dumped by the Twins. Just because we can expect improvement doesn't mean owners will get the old Papi back for the second half. Though he has been stronger after the All-Star break in each of the last three years, his second-half Isolated Power has shrunk with each passing year, from .396 to .331 to .252. He should be safe to use in mixed leagues, but there are no signs that Ortiz will come close to the level of productivity he displayed even two years ago.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
