By the Numbers: Great Scott? Pods a mirage

Several of this week's featured fluky BABIP trends belong to young 'uns like Jay Bruce, Sean West and Jason Berken, but one of the most intriguing comes from old hand Scott Podsednik.

The veteran has been the White Sox' good luck charm in a couple of ways. They inked Podsednik to a minor-league deal back in mid-April and he didn't join the 25-man roster for two more weeks. Ever since his callup, Podsednik has hit well, and he wound up replacing Carlos Quentin in left field. With an uncharacteristic 5.6 RC/27, Podsednik has wound up giving the Sox something closer to corner outfield-type production than they could have reasonably expected. This minor signing now looks like a fortuitous break for the Sox, but Podsednik's performance so far has been one big good luck streak. He has rarely hit for a high batting average on balls in play, but his BABIP currently sits at a robust .339. That rate is all the flukier given that Podsednik's flyball rate is the highest it has been in five years.

Though his popularity has soared over the past month, Podsednik's surprising stats just can't be trusted. He may be striking out just once in every 10 at-bats, but he's a poor bet to hit above .280 going forward. Once his BABIP starts to slide, he will lose ground in the batting average, runs and stolen base categories, and ultimately, his playing time in a crowded Chicago outfield will diminish as well.

Lucky Players

Nick Green, SS, Boston: Green has filled in admirably for Jed Lowrie, but skill-wise, he hasn't been much better than the player who faded into obscurity three seasons ago. He couldn't hang on with either the Devil Rays or the Yankees, because he made contact infrequently, and when he did, he still wasn't driving the ball much. Green has reduced his strikeouts, but a 22 percent whiff rate still isn't good enough to maintain a batting average in the .270s, at least not when you lack home run or line drive power. Green's unsustainable .336 BABIP has created the appearance of a player who can hit for a high enough average to contribute in an AL-only league, but as long as he continues to stand in for Lowrie, he isn't likely to offer more than empty at-bats with an average around .240.

Sean West, SP, Florida: West had a hard time finding the strike zone in the minors, so his 4.1 BB/9 rate with Florida is no surprise. Pitchers who dominate in Double-A often find that their stuff doesn't translate into strikeouts as well when they go straight to the majors, so the near-halving of West's whiff rate is also no surprise. Really, the only surprise for West and his owners is his sparkling 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, which owe everything to a lucky .221 BABIP. It's probably worth keeping West active in NL-only leagues for Week 13, as one of his two starts comes against an impatient and impotent San Francisco lineup. That will also buy you some time to line up some potential buyers for West. Unless you are in a keeper league, the best way to maximize your value from West is to trade him while there's still some buzz around him.

Unlucky Players

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati: If you are a Bruce owner, you may be getting bombarded by trade proposals from owners looking to acquire the phenom at a bargain price. I feel your frustration at Bruce's .214 batting average, but don't pull the trigger on any deals until you read what follows. This may be hard to believe, but Bruce's skill set has improved since his rookie season, and not by just a little. Compared to last year, he is hitting for more power, striking out less often and taking more pitches. He, unfortunately, also has the distinction of being the hitter with the lowest BABIP in baseball, getting only 20 percent of balls in play through for base hits. With a more normal BABIP in the second half, Bruce should have a stat line much like the one that the similarly-skilled Jermaine Dye has right now: .287-18-45-43. If you must trade Bruce, remember that you're trading a younger version of Dye, not the struggling hitter you have owned for the past 12 weeks.

Jason Berken, SP, Baltimore: It's easy to see why owners would shy away from a relatively unknown starter with a 6.00-plus ERA, but Berken should be getting more chances to fill out an AL-only rotation or at least to sit in reserves as a potential injury replacement. His skill history suggests he shouldn't perform any worse than Andy Pettitte has so far this year, but Berken has had to deal with a bad luck double whammy. His .326 BABIP is slightly bloated, but worse yet, an improbably high 43 percent of batters reaching base against Berken have managed to score. Based on run support alone, Berken doesn't have the same potential to pile up wins as Pettitte does, but he should certainly be rostered in more than one percent of CBSSports.com's leagues. As his luck improves, we will surely see -- wait for it -- Berken's stock rise among owners in AL-only leagues.

Players Who Could Be For Real

Jason Hammel, SP, Colorado: Coors Field is not quite as homerific as it once was, but it's still a good home for a ground ball pitcher. The move to Denver from St. Pete has definitely agreed with Hammel, who has lowered his ERA and WHIP from last year. His popularity in Fantasy is just starting to grow, due in large part to five straight wins, but Hammel's skill has been there all along. His strikeout rate is hovering just under the NL median, and now he is demonstrating the above-average control he had in the minors. And then there are also all those ground balls. Hammel's BABIP was in the .350s in mid-May, but now as it inches back to a normal level, his current stats (4.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.3 K/9) are a good indicator of what owners can expect the rest of the year.

Brendan Harris, SS, Minnesota: Nick Green has been doing a good job impersonating an AL-only shortstop, but if what you really need is a highly-available middle infielder who can hit for average and do little harm elsewhere, then Harris is your man. While he's not exactly the next coming of Orlando Cabrera, he is a decent contact hitter who regularly boasts a high batting average on the balls he does put in play. Note to Nick: this is how you keep a .280 batting average when you are not blessed with prodigious power. You can't count on Harris for double-digit homers or steals, but he's a consistent producer of hits and runs, and his performance to date falls right into his usual pattern.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.