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Scott White

Sliders: Saying goodbye is never easy

By | Fantasy Writer


Some players leave such a lasting imprint on the game we remember them on a first-name basis.

First name? Try first syllable.

Vlad. Maggs.

Fantasy Baseball - Sliders: Saying goodbye is never easy : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

You see there? I don't need to say any more. You know exactly who I mean because you've relied on them in Fantasy year after year after year.

Which only makes this year more painful.

Yes, our longtime heroes, the names we've come to know and trust since Fantasy Baseball first took off with the Internet boom, are getting old. For weeks, we've lived in denial, allowing them to work through their issues or do whatever they need to do to get back on track, but enough is enough. Time to put the trusty steed out to pasture.

That's right: It's not all puppy dogs and lemon squares here in Slidersville. Occasionally, we have to examine the hard truths -- the ones nobody wants to admit.

Sorry to bring you down.

Sliders These guys haven't just gotten hot or cold. Their recent play has caused their Fantasy appeal to "slide" one way or another.

Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels

I should preface this argument by saying Guerrero will have better numbers from today forward than he has so far. That's a given. But it doesn't change the fact he has only two home runs in his first 144 at-bats.

That's not just bad. It's David Eckstein bad, Joe Inglett bad, so-bad-you-can't-even-justify-starting-him bad.

So where did it come from? Just the natural effects of age? That probably had something to do with it, especially when you consider how much he aged in the offseason, when his real birth certificate came out. Then again, it was just one year, not 15. Can a player change so much in so little time?

You have to remember certain types of players walk a fine line between superstardom and marginal usefulness. Not everyone is like Todd Helton, who lost most of his power and some of his batting average but remained a worthwhile Fantasy option simply because he could draw walks, reach base and score runs.

Guerrero, by comparison, was never a patient hitter. He had decent walk totals some years just because pitchers feared him, but he generally tried to hit everything in sight. So now that his natural regression has made him a .290-hitting, 20-homer guy instead of a .330-hitting, 30-homer guy, pitchers no longer fear him enough to walk him, making him not much more significant than Garret Anderson.

And that's assuming he actually hits .290 with 20 home runs, which nobody should consider an unfair estimate at this point in the season.

Then when you add the constant injury concerns -- the tricky knee and the sore pectoral -- you have to expect him to miss more playing time than the average player, making him even more of a headache in Head-to-Head leagues.

Speaking of that pectoral injury, I don't doubt it has some effect on his performance, but you shouldn't expect him to go blasting off again as soon as it fully heals. At last report, the Angels say he could return to the outfield soon, which means the injury has shown significant improvement. If it's improving, but his numbers aren't, what does that say?

The guy still has his uses, but he's clearly not a high-end Fantasy option anymore. And I think you're more likely to cut him than treat him as a must-start outfielder going forward.

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies

Remember Gil Meche last year? Well, clearly you didn't own him -- not after April, anyway. If you had, you'd remember he gave you the best bang for the buck of any pitcher in Fantasy from that point forward.

Now then, while you try to wrap your head around that lofty introduction, allow me to introduce you to Meche's 2009 counterpart: Ubaldo Jimenez.

Like Meche last year, Jimenez had an ERA over 7.00 in April, causing many people to jump ship on a clear preseason sleeper. Also like Meche last year, Jimenez has performed beyond anyone's expectations ever since, only nobody would know it because his poor numbers from earlier in the season have skewed his overall numbers beyond repair.

He made four starts in April, posting a 7.58 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP. He has made 12 starts since, posting a 2.88 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

Gee, which performance holds more water?

And best of all, that's where the similarities end between Meche and Jimenez, because unlike Meche, Jimenez has a chance to develop into a no-questions-asked ace. No, he's not a slam dunk like Felix Hernandez or even Tommy Hanson, but the guy's only 25 and can hit 98 mph on the radar gun. With a little control, he's at least Johnny Cueto.

I wouldn't call him a top Fantasy option yet, but I would call him one of the most underappreciated starting pitchers in Fantasy. So don't make the same mistake two years in a row and let someone else reap the benefits. If you have Jimenez, he'll always start for your team, and he'll almost always pitch well.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers

It's a pretty common strategy, really. A guy goes cold, so you bench him, hoping a few extra blinks will help him see straight again. Call it the David Ortiz treatment.

Manager Jim Leyland tried it on Ordonez. It didn't work.

Now seven games into his return, he has exactly five hits -- a home run, yes, but five hits. It's more of the same from the 35-year-old, who at the season's halfway point, has only one 20-point week in standard Head-to-Head scoring.

The decline doesn't come as a total surprise considering his age and the fact his OPS dipped more than 100 points last year, but to this extent? The Tigers have gotten more punch from Placido Polanco.

Keep in mind, though, Ordonez hasn't hit 30 homers since 2002. When he revived his career after a serious knee injury in 2004, he wasn't so much of a power hitter anymore. His stats looked more like Miguel Tejada's than Manny Ramirez's, so you have to figure his regression will go about the same way. So that leaves us with how many homers? A dozen? Maybe 14 or 15?

Of course, that's assuming the Tigers even give him a chance to come around. With their load of outfielders both in the majors and the minors, they can only afford so much patience as they battle for a division crown.

The potential that Ordonez rights the ship makes him worth stashing if you have the roster space, but if you'd prefer to use it on someone else, feel free.

Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays

Don't try to understand him. Just know that Rolen keeps on rolling.

On second thought, let's try to understand him. It's more useful to you and more useful of me. Plus, you're probably pretty confused by now. I mean, the guy looked finished from a Fantasy standpoint last year, and suddenly you're relying on him again.

His usefulness ended when his shoulder problems began, which isn't too surprising, really. Shoulder procedures have a way of ruining power hitters, and Rolen was no exception, averaging 13.7 home runs over his last three full seasons after averaging 27.8 over his previous eight.

It's as if this year he said, "Hey, if I can't hit for power, I won't even try," and instead concentrated on his batting average, leading to a .331 mark, third-best in the AL. And the five-time All-Star is a good enough natural hitter that you really don't have any reason to doubt the legitimacy of his performance. He simply needed to adjust to his surgically-repaired body and alter his approach.

Of course, the tradeoff means he won't ever perform like a top Fantasy third baseman anymore, but that ship sailed long ago. The fact is he's useful now in all Fantasy leagues, and considering he came into the season useless, that's a major improvement.

Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets

What's the matter with this guy?

He throws hard and has a top-prospect pedigree, but he can't strike out a batter to save his life.

And maybe you wouldn't care, maybe you wouldn't even notice if he was winning games and limiting runs like he did when he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA over the final four months last year.

It seemed encouraging at the time, especially given his alleged talent, but I didn't trust it then, and I don't trust him to rebound now simply because he walks more than half as many batters as he strikes out. And I learned long ago you can't trust pitchers like that for anything more than the occasional spot start. They're far too hittable to give up so many free passes.

At age 25, Pelfrey still has plenty of time to emerge as a must-start Fantasy option, but he needs to make a serious adjustment of some sort. I don't want to ride out these growing pains with him. Do you?

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Scott Podsednik, OF, White Sox

Yes, everyone likes to see a cast-aside Fantasy has-been miraculously wedge his foot back into the world of Rotisserie. It offers inspiration, or at least that sick satisfaction that comes from watching a seemingly crushed cockroach wiggle its little leg one last time.

Look, I'll admit Podsednik leading off for the White Sox just feels right, and his five straight weeks of 19-plus points in standard Head-to-Head scoring make him ... well, it makes him more useful than Vladimir Guerrero or Magglio Ordonez right now. But the fact remains the guy has only once hit over .300 -- as a rookie in 2003 -- and he's not likely to learn any new tricks at age 33.

He never walked enough for a leadoff man, and that little shortcoming hasn't gone away. Pitchers will learn to exploit his weaknesses and leave him with a sub-par, Emilio Bonifacio-like batting average just like they always did before.

Besides, even during his earlier days of Fantasy usefulness, most of Podsednik's value came from his ability and unbridled willingness to steal bases. On the rare occasion he reached base, he'd go crazy, swiping anywhere from 40 to 70 bags.

If he steals only 25 bases, which he's currently on pace to do this year, what good does he offer in Fantasy?

I'd stay away in mixed leagues. If you need a stopgap, I'd never object to you riding the hot hand, but Podsednik is far from a long-term solution.

Change-ups For every correct prediction, there is an equal and opposite incorrect prediction. At times, I have to "change up" some of my own just to save face.

Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, Giants

It seems like an eternity ago.

Actually, it was just three weeks ago, but Sandoval's outlook has changed so much in that short period of time that retracting my statement on him now seems almost like a foregone conclusion.

I said his lack of power made him nothing more than a last resort in mixed leagues. Since then, he has seven home runs in 20 games, putting him on pace for 24. Combine those with his .336 batting average, and the guy doesn't look half bad.

In fact, he looks like one of this year's biggest breakout players, posting a .955 OPS. Couldn't have missed the boat more on that one, Scotty boy.

I still wouldn't call him a high-end option or even a must-start just because that low walk rate has him on pace for only 72 runs scored, but the good far outweighs the bad with him. He shouldn't go unowned, and if for some reason he still does in your league, find some way to put an end to that.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

Felix Hernandez
King Felix likely to start game in Japan
Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Hernandez didn't repeat as the AL Cy Young winner in 2011, but he still had another solid season for Seattle. He went 14-14 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He also struck out 222 in 233 2/3 innings. His win-loss record would probably be way better on a top contender, but King Felix still does plenty for Fantasy owners to be considered a top 10 Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

Hisashi Iwakuma
Iwakuma says shoulder is fine
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: MLB.com reports Mariners SP Hisashi Iwakuma said his shoulder is fine after he was limited to 17 starts last season in Japan because of a sore right shoulder. "I talked to him at length a couple days ago," pitching coach Carl Willis said. "This is obviously all new to him being in the States for the first time, with a different routine pitching every fifth day instead of sixth or seventh. But he's not an 18-year-old kid either. He has a history of what he's done to get ready for a season and we'll talk daily. Really, at the outset it comes down to me listening to him, because he's the one who knows what he needs to do to get ready."
Analysis: Iwakuma had a 107-69 record in 226 career games in Japan. The right-hander was selected the 2008 Pacific League MVP and winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award (the equivalent of the Cy Young Award) after going 21-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Last season, Iwakuma went 6-7 with a 2.42 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 17 starts. While his numbers overseas are impressive, you know it has been hit or miss when it has come to Japanese pitchers in the majors. Even if Iwakuma lands a rotation spot with Seattle, you won't want to use more than a late-round flier on him.

Tim Hudson
Hudson cleared to increase throwing
Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves SP Tim Hudson, who is recovering from surgery to repair a disc in his back late in November, had been playing light catch in his yard until begin cleared by doctors this week to increase his throwing.
Analysis: The word around Braves camp is proceed with caution in regards to the veteran Hudson. Pretty much every important Braves official has said they won't rush the right-hander in his recovery, and Atlanta is willing to start the season without him if it comes to that. We will just have to see how he progresses this spring. Consider Hudson an injury-risk, mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Clearly, he can be a very productive Fantasy option when healthy.

Mike Minor
Minor having early control problems
Mike Minor, SP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves SP Mike Minor, vying again this spring for the fifth starter's job, said, "All my pitches are everywhere right now." His says his arm feels good, but that it's lagging and he isn't following through. Fortunately, he knows the point of the Braves' early throwing program is to get these preseason inconsistencies out of the way.
Analysis: Minor is considered the favorite to win the final spot in the Braves' rotation over Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado. However, Minor might be needed at the start of the season regardless if Tim Hudson's recovery from back surgery doesn't go as planned. Minor kind of disappointed in 15 starts in 2011. In fact, he has just a 4.74 ERA in 24 outings (23 starts) as a major leaguer and hasn't shown the same type of dominance he did in the minors. Still, the Braves have high hopes for the lefty and aren't giving up on him just yet. If Minor does make the rotation this spring, then look to him as a late-round Fantasy option in deep formats.

Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel working on changeup
Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Braves RP Craig Kimbrel is working on locating his changeup, which he may use during the season if he's able to master it. But even if it's not ready for prime time, throwing it helps stretch him out for his fastball. He has yet to throw his curveball.
Analysis: While Kimbrel struggled at the end of the 2011 season, he still dominated hitters for most of the season on his way to winning NL rookie of the year honors. It's good that he is working to get better, but he shouldn't have to change too much since he has been a smash hit since debuting in 2010. Kimbrel is a must-own Fantasy RP and will likely be the first RP selected in many drafts this spring.

Roy Oswalt
Phillies not in running for Oswalt?
Roy Oswalt, SP, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. defused a FOXSports.com report that his team remained in the hunt to re-sign Roy Oswalt. "We really don't have any room for him," Amaro told MLB.com. "We have five, six starters, and our resources are about where we want to be right now. I think he wouldn't mind coming back, but I don't know that's feasible or a real possibility."
Analysis: The Phillies surfaced as a possible destination for Oswalt after rumors surfaced again that the team wanted to trade Joe Blanton. It seems the Phillies have no immediate plans to bring Oswalt aboard, but we will have to continue to track his offseason progress. Fortunately, all of the teams linked to Oswalt are expected contenders, but even so, Oswalt would be at best a No. 4 Fantasy SP given his chronic back woes and declining numbers.

 
 
 
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