Some players leave such a lasting imprint on the game we remember them on a first-name basis.
First name? Try first syllable.
Vlad. Maggs.
You see there? I don't need to say any more. You know exactly who I mean because you've relied on them in Fantasy year after year after year.
Which only makes this year more painful.
Yes, our longtime heroes, the names we've come to know and trust since Fantasy Baseball first took off with the Internet boom, are getting old. For weeks, we've lived in denial, allowing them to work through their issues or do whatever they need to do to get back on track, but enough is enough. Time to put the trusty steed out to pasture.
That's right: It's not all puppy dogs and lemon squares here in Slidersville. Occasionally, we have to examine the hard truths -- the ones nobody wants to admit.
Sorry to bring you down.
Sliders These guys haven't just gotten hot or cold. Their recent play has caused their Fantasy appeal to "slide" one way or another.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels
I should preface this argument by saying Guerrero will have better numbers from today forward than he has so far. That's a given. But it doesn't change the fact he has only two home runs in his first 144 at-bats.
That's not just bad. It's David Eckstein bad, Joe Inglett bad, so-bad-you-can't-even-justify-starting-him bad.
So where did it come from? Just the natural effects of age? That probably had something to do with it, especially when you consider how much he aged in the offseason, when his real birth certificate came out. Then again, it was just one year, not 15. Can a player change so much in so little time?
You have to remember certain types of players walk a fine line between superstardom and marginal usefulness. Not everyone is like Todd Helton, who lost most of his power and some of his batting average but remained a worthwhile Fantasy option simply because he could draw walks, reach base and score runs.
Guerrero, by comparison, was never a patient hitter. He had decent walk totals some years just because pitchers feared him, but he generally tried to hit everything in sight. So now that his natural regression has made him a .290-hitting, 20-homer guy instead of a .330-hitting, 30-homer guy, pitchers no longer fear him enough to walk him, making him not much more significant than Garret Anderson.
And that's assuming he actually hits .290 with 20 home runs, which nobody should consider an unfair estimate at this point in the season.
Then when you add the constant injury concerns -- the tricky knee and the sore pectoral -- you have to expect him to miss more playing time than the average player, making him even more of a headache in Head-to-Head leagues.
Speaking of that pectoral injury, I don't doubt it has some effect on his performance, but you shouldn't expect him to go blasting off again as soon as it fully heals. At last report, the Angels say he could return to the outfield soon, which means the injury has shown significant improvement. If it's improving, but his numbers aren't, what does that say?
The guy still has his uses, but he's clearly not a high-end Fantasy option anymore. And I think you're more likely to cut him than treat him as a must-start outfielder going forward.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies
Remember Gil Meche last year? Well, clearly you didn't own him -- not after April, anyway. If you had, you'd remember he gave you the best bang for the buck of any pitcher in Fantasy from that point forward.
Now then, while you try to wrap your head around that lofty introduction, allow me to introduce you to Meche's 2009 counterpart: Ubaldo Jimenez.
Like Meche last year, Jimenez had an ERA over 7.00 in April, causing many people to jump ship on a clear preseason sleeper. Also like Meche last year, Jimenez has performed beyond anyone's expectations ever since, only nobody would know it because his poor numbers from earlier in the season have skewed his overall numbers beyond repair.
He made four starts in April, posting a 7.58 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP. He has made 12 starts since, posting a 2.88 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Gee, which performance holds more water?
And best of all, that's where the similarities end between Meche and Jimenez, because unlike Meche, Jimenez has a chance to develop into a no-questions-asked ace. No, he's not a slam dunk like Felix Hernandez or even Tommy Hanson, but the guy's only 25 and can hit 98 mph on the radar gun. With a little control, he's at least Johnny Cueto.
I wouldn't call him a top Fantasy option yet, but I would call him one of the most underappreciated starting pitchers in Fantasy. So don't make the same mistake two years in a row and let someone else reap the benefits. If you have Jimenez, he'll always start for your team, and he'll almost always pitch well.
Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers
It's a pretty common strategy, really. A guy goes cold, so you bench him, hoping a few extra blinks will help him see straight again. Call it the David Ortiz treatment.
Manager Jim Leyland tried it on Ordonez. It didn't work.
Now seven games into his return, he has exactly five hits -- a home run, yes, but five hits. It's more of the same from the 35-year-old, who at the season's halfway point, has only one 20-point week in standard Head-to-Head scoring.
The decline doesn't come as a total surprise considering his age and the fact his OPS dipped more than 100 points last year, but to this extent? The Tigers have gotten more punch from Placido Polanco.
Keep in mind, though, Ordonez hasn't hit 30 homers since 2002. When he revived his career after a serious knee injury in 2004, he wasn't so much of a power hitter anymore. His stats looked more like Miguel Tejada's than Manny Ramirez's, so you have to figure his regression will go about the same way. So that leaves us with how many homers? A dozen? Maybe 14 or 15?
Of course, that's assuming the Tigers even give him a chance to come around. With their load of outfielders both in the majors and the minors, they can only afford so much patience as they battle for a division crown.
The potential that Ordonez rights the ship makes him worth stashing if you have the roster space, but if you'd prefer to use it on someone else, feel free.
Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays
Don't try to understand him. Just know that Rolen keeps on rolling.
On second thought, let's try to understand him. It's more useful to you and more useful of me. Plus, you're probably pretty confused by now. I mean, the guy looked finished from a Fantasy standpoint last year, and suddenly you're relying on him again.
His usefulness ended when his shoulder problems began, which isn't too surprising, really. Shoulder procedures have a way of ruining power hitters, and Rolen was no exception, averaging 13.7 home runs over his last three full seasons after averaging 27.8 over his previous eight.
It's as if this year he said, "Hey, if I can't hit for power, I won't even try," and instead concentrated on his batting average, leading to a .331 mark, third-best in the AL. And the five-time All-Star is a good enough natural hitter that you really don't have any reason to doubt the legitimacy of his performance. He simply needed to adjust to his surgically-repaired body and alter his approach.
Of course, the tradeoff means he won't ever perform like a top Fantasy third baseman anymore, but that ship sailed long ago. The fact is he's useful now in all Fantasy leagues, and considering he came into the season useless, that's a major improvement.
Mike Pelfrey, SP, Mets
What's the matter with this guy?
He throws hard and has a top-prospect pedigree, but he can't strike out a batter to save his life.
And maybe you wouldn't care, maybe you wouldn't even notice if he was winning games and limiting runs like he did when he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA over the final four months last year.
It seemed encouraging at the time, especially given his alleged talent, but I didn't trust it then, and I don't trust him to rebound now simply because he walks more than half as many batters as he strikes out. And I learned long ago you can't trust pitchers like that for anything more than the occasional spot start. They're far too hittable to give up so many free passes.
At age 25, Pelfrey still has plenty of time to emerge as a must-start Fantasy option, but he needs to make a serious adjustment of some sort. I don't want to ride out these growing pains with him. Do you?
Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.
Scott Podsednik, OF, White Sox
Yes, everyone likes to see a cast-aside Fantasy has-been miraculously wedge his foot back into the world of Rotisserie. It offers inspiration, or at least that sick satisfaction that comes from watching a seemingly crushed cockroach wiggle its little leg one last time.
Look, I'll admit Podsednik leading off for the White Sox just feels right, and his five straight weeks of 19-plus points in standard Head-to-Head scoring make him ... well, it makes him more useful than Vladimir Guerrero or Magglio Ordonez right now. But the fact remains the guy has only once hit over .300 -- as a rookie in 2003 -- and he's not likely to learn any new tricks at age 33.
He never walked enough for a leadoff man, and that little shortcoming hasn't gone away. Pitchers will learn to exploit his weaknesses and leave him with a sub-par, Emilio Bonifacio-like batting average just like they always did before.
Besides, even during his earlier days of Fantasy usefulness, most of Podsednik's value came from his ability and unbridled willingness to steal bases. On the rare occasion he reached base, he'd go crazy, swiping anywhere from 40 to 70 bags.
If he steals only 25 bases, which he's currently on pace to do this year, what good does he offer in Fantasy?
I'd stay away in mixed leagues. If you need a stopgap, I'd never object to you riding the hot hand, but Podsednik is far from a long-term solution.
Change-ups For every correct prediction, there is an equal and opposite incorrect prediction. At times, I have to "change up" some of my own just to save face.
Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, Giants
It seems like an eternity ago.
Actually, it was just three weeks ago, but Sandoval's outlook has changed so much in that short period of time that retracting my statement on him now seems almost like a foregone conclusion.
I said his lack of power made him nothing more than a last resort in mixed leagues. Since then, he has seven home runs in 20 games, putting him on pace for 24. Combine those with his .336 batting average, and the guy doesn't look half bad.
In fact, he looks like one of this year's biggest breakout players, posting a .955 OPS. Couldn't have missed the boat more on that one, Scotty boy.
I still wouldn't call him a high-end option or even a must-start just because that low walk rate has him on pace for only 72 runs scored, but the good far outweighs the bad with him. He shouldn't go unowned, and if for some reason he still does in your league, find some way to put an end to that.
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