Week 13 is not shaping up to be a time of much waiver wire movement, at least not for American League players.
Aside from Ricky Romero, no player is generating all that much interest. The top target for dropping is Matt Palmer, who has struggled lately and appears to have been demoted to the Angels' bullpen after Wednesday's relief appearance against Texas. If you own Palmer but don't have anyone particularly compelling to keep on reserves, consider stashing Palmer there, even as he pitches out of the 'pen. It's not that his stats as a starter were all that dazzling, but there are worse guys to have on the mound (e.g., scroll down to the writeup on Vicente Padilla). If Palmer were to regain his starting role, you could expect him to maintain an ERA under 5.00 and a WHIP near its current 1.45 level. Not great stuff, but again, still better than what you'll get from some of the hurlers currently occupying active rotation spots in AL-only leagues.
Palmer's tenure in the bullpen could also be a short one. Fifth starter Sean O'Sullivan has looked impressive in two out of his three starts, but the law of averages says there are some clunkers in his future. O'Sullivan has benefited from a 50 percent flyball rate, which has kept his WHIP and BABIP low (if not his home run rate), but his minor league stats don't suggest that we have the next Ted Lilly on our hands. Over his next few starts, expect fewer flies and more BABIP-killing liners, and watch O'Sullivan's ERA and WHIP to plump up like an overgrilled brat at a Fourth of July barbecue. The next thing you know, Matt is back taking his turn every fifth day in the Halos' rotation.
More guys in demand
Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees
Week 13 Ownership: 13 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 26 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 3rd
The Skinny: Gardner is not quite the everyday center fielder in the Bronx, but he has been scoring enough Fantasy points when he does play to merit an AL-only roster spot. An utter lack of power (11 extra base hits in 159 at-bats) makes Gardner a three-category player, but they've been very good categories for him so far. The combination of a low whiff rate, a high BABIP and speed have resulted in 32 runs and 17 steals to go along with an unexpected .289 batting average. It will be just as unexpected if we check back in with Gardner around the trade deadline and he is still batting in the .280s. He has struck out in just 14 percent of his at-bats this year, a rate he has never achieved before -- not in the New York-Penn League, not in the Florida State League, not ever. Most likely, Gardner's second-half average will be in the .260s, which makes him a more marginal Fantasy option unless he plays every day.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2008 | Scranton-WB (Triple-A) | 17% | 22% | 0.126 | 0.374 | N/A | 37 |
| 2008 | N.Y. Yankees | 6% | 24% | 0.071 | 0.299 | 3.5 | 13 |
| 2009 | N.Y. Yankees | 11% | 14% | 0.132 | 0.321 | 6.1 | 17 |
Vicente Padilla, SP, Texas
Week 13 Ownership: 20 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 28 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 5th
The Skinny: Up until his start on Monday against the Angels, Padilla had his best run of the season, putting together four consecutive starts with game scores of 47 or higher. A game score of 50 is an average start, so this hardly qualifies as a springboard to a Cy Young. Then again, his "streak" is enough encouragement for owners in deep leagues to take notice, and there are some reasons to trust Padilla with at least a reserve slot. During the four-game stretch, he gave up just one home run over 25 innings, a trend which mirrors the aversion to homers that he has exhibited all season. He has cut his flyball rate down from 37 percent in '08 to 29 percent this year, so the new homer-averse Padilla could stick around for awhile. He'll need to, because his command alone is nowhere near adequate for a Fantasy pitcher, no matter how deep the league.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Texas | 3.7 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.323 | 5.95 |
| 2008 | Texas | 3.4 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.306 | 5.20 |
| 2009 | Texas | 4.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.301 | 4.90 |
Other guys drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 13 Ownership | Week 14 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto | 47% | 68% | 21% |
| 2. | J.P. Howell, RP, Tampa Bay | 35% | 49% | 14% |
| 4. | Scott Podsednik, OF, Chicago White Sox | 38% | 48% | 10% |
Guys Dropping Like Flies
Carl Pavano, SP, Cleveland
Week 13 Ownership: 39 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 34 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 7th
The Skinny: He is crazy making, no? The inconsistency must be of Pavano's own doing, because it seems he is always on a roller coaster ride. At least in this case, though, the evidence just doesn't support that idea. Prior to Pavano's latest meltdown -- a three-game stretch where he coughed up 18 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings -- the most dramatic change to his statistical profile was the change in BABIP. Sure, the four dingers over those three games didn't help matters, but what really killed Pavano and his owners were the 27 base hits from balls that were in play. Yup, that's more than two per inning. If it were a matter of Pavano not having his best stuff, then why did both his line drive and flyball rates fall during this extended bludgeoning? The 31 point uptick in BABIP over three starts tells me that someone in the Indians' clubhouse must have offended Jobu. There's simply no other explanation. Pavano has already bounced back with a good start this week, so think twice about clicking that "Drop This Player" button.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2005 | N.Y. Yankees | 1.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.333 | 5.74 |
| 2008 | N.Y. Yankees | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.316 | 5.60 |
| 2009 | Cleveland | 1.8 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.346 | 4.80 |
Guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 13 Ownership | Week 14 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Matt Palmer, SP, L.A. Angels | 47% | 33% | -14% |
| 2. | Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland | 54% | 43% | -11% |
| 3. | Luke Scott, DH, Baltimore | 79% | 70% | -9% |
| 4. | Vin Mazzaro, SP, Oakland | 43% | 36% | -7% |
| 4. | Rod Barajas, C, Toronto | 42% | 35% | -7% |
| Glossary |
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio
GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio
Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats
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Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
