By the Numbers: Breakout by Jake? Not so fast
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Lou Piniella seems to be playing a little game of cat and mouse with Jake Fox.
When the Cubs called up the 26 year-old, who had been destroying Triple-A pitching, owners went berserk and instantly added him to one-third of the leagues on CBSSports.com. Then Sweet Lou sat him, then sat him some more, and then the front office sent him packing back to Triple-A. In his second stint with the Cubbies, Piniella has finally decided to give Fox and his owners a break with an extended tryout at third base (for Fox, that is, but not his owners -- the latter would be weird). Things have gone smashingly well, so owners are making a second run on Fox, resurrecting his status as one of the National League's 10 Most Added Players.
Fox's days as a regular are likely numbered, since Aramis Ramirez could be back at the hot corner as soon as next week. Even without Ramirez around, Fox would be no slam dunk to stay in the lineup. New acquisition Jeff Baker has even more defensive versatility, and his offensive skill set is not drastically different from Fox's. It's true that Baker won't hit .317 like Fox has so far this year, but with more at-bats, Fox's average won't stay anywhere near that high either. There is no way that his whiff rate will stay as low as 15 percent, when he has struggled to keep that rate in the low 20s in the minors. Ramirez' reemergence and Baker's arrival, along with Fox's own impending cool-off, will result in a serious reduction in his playing time. Keep an eye on Ramirez' status and get ready to drop Fox to reserves or waivers.
More guys in demand
Casey McGehee, 3B, Milwaukee
Week 13 Ownership: 28 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 47 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: Don't let McGehee's hot start with the Brewers fool you; there's a reason why the Cubs cut him loose last fall. Once they apparently had figured out that he wasn't going to make it as a catcher, the North Siders realized they already had a better second baseman in Mike Fontenot. Ironically, Fontenot secured the starting job this year on the basis of an overachieving performance in '08, much like the one McGehee is having right now in Milwaukee. Still, after you strip away the small-sample power and BABIP surges for both players, Fontenot has the better offensive track record and skill set. There's nothing wrong with having McGehee activated in an NL-only league, but then again, he is replaceable enough that leaving him on reserves wouldn't be a terrible waste either.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2007 | Tennessee (Double-A) | 9% | 19% | 0.148 | 0.318 | N/A | 1 |
| 2008 | Iowa (Triple-A) | 7% | 18% | 0.133 | 0.341 | N/A | 0 |
| 2009 | Milwaukee | 10% | 18% | 0.217 | 0.360 | 7.4 | 0 |
Chad Gaudin, SP, San Diego
Week 13 Ownership: 6 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 21 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 5th
The Skinny: Owners who were carrying Gaudin on their active roster during Week 12 must have thought they hit the jackpot, but really they just happened to possess one of Fantasy's best-kept secrets. Prior to last week, Gaudin was saddled with an ERA near 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.60, but his Fantasy potential was obscured by an unlucky BABIP rate. After two tremendous starts, that rate has recovered nicely, dropping from .338 to .303. Even with that correction, Gaudin's 3.86 ERC shows us that there is room for his ERA to fall much further from its current 4.97 mark. He is a strong bet to deliver in the strikeout and ERA categories, but his lack of control and run support will curb his contributions to WHIP and wins. Despite these limitations, Gaudin needs to be active in much more than one out of every 10 leagues on this site.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Oakland | 4.5 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.310 | 4.80 |
| 2008 | Oakland/Chi. Cubs | 2.7 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 0.306 | 4.06 |
| 2009 | San Diego | 4.6 | 9.4 | 0.8 | 0.303 | 3.86 |
Other guys drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 13 Ownership | Week 14 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Kevin Correia, SP, San Diego | 26% | 47% | 21% |
| 3. | Fernando Nieve, SP, N.Y. Mets | 32% | 49% | 17% |
| 4. | Randy Wells, SP, Chi. Cubs | 37% | 53% | 16% |
Guys Dropping Like Flies
Nick Johnson, 1B, Washington
Week 13 Ownership: 66 percent
Week 14 Ownership: 60 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 4th (tied)
The Skinny: Johnson finished June with a whimper, going 1-for-25 over his last seven games in the month. Even though he boasted a .321 batting average before the slump, owners have been bailing on Johnson for about a month, and for good reason. Once you get past the attractive batting average, there is nothing else there, other than some walks. Johnson offers little in RBI, runs, stolen bases and power, even of the doubles variety. At least when David Ortiz was in the midst of his early-season sleepwalk, his owners could console themselves with the "at least he's still hitting doubles" mantra. Johnson's owners have no such comfort, as he has just 13 two-baggers in 271 at-bats. Unless you can find a way to slot Johnson in as a corner infielder, it's time to let him go except in deeper leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2006 | Washington | 18% | 20% | 0.230 | 0.323 | 8.5 | 10 |
| 2008 | Washington | 23% | 23% | 0.211 | 0.241 | 6.7 | 0 |
| 2009 | Washington | 15% | 17% | 0.118 | 0.342 | 6.2 | 1 |
Guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 13 Ownership | Week 14 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Ryan Madson, RP, Philadelphia | 31% | 21% | -10% |
| 2. | Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta | 58% | 49% | -9% |
| 3. | Juan Pierre, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 71% | 63% | -8% |
| 4. | Jonathan O. Sanchez, SP, San Francisco | 29% | 23% | -6% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
