By the Numbers: Is it all about location?

I don't generally believe in micromanaging my Fantasy teams, but one of my favorite managerial tactics is to rotate my more extreme flyball pitchers in and out of the rotation based on where they will be pitching in the coming week.

I have also been dispensing this advice on this site over the last two seasons. Just two weeks ago, I advised Scott Richmond's owners to sit him in "homer havens like Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards and U.S. Cellular Field." It seems like every time I have benched someone like Kevin Slowey or Ted Lilly before they visit a home run ballpark, they wind up getting shelled and I wind up dodging a bullet. Still, I had never put my theory to any kind of test, so for all I know, my perceived success with this strategy could be nothing more than selective memory.

I decided to look at the numbers for the most extreme flyball pitchers over the past few years, and see if they performed any better in low-homer and homer-neutral parks, and the results surprised me. They will change the way I manage my teams.

Before we dig into the results, here's what I did. First, I identified all of the starting pitchers from 2007 to 2009 who had seasons with flyball rates of at least 43 percent (both the average and median rate for starting pitchers over this period was 35.9 percent). Then I weeded out all of the pitchers on the list who did not have a rate this high during this season plus at least one of the prior two seasons. The final step was to separate out their stats from the most home run-friendly ballparks. Using the park factor indices published on the MLB.com Fantasy 411 blog, I isolated the nine stadiums with the highest home run indices from 2006 to 2008. For good measure, I also added any games pitched in the new Yankee Stadium to the "homer park" data set, even though we don't have any reliable park factor data for the Bombers' new ballpark.

With the home run park performances parsed out, do we see any difference in how well extreme flyball pitchers have performed in these two different types of environments? Do their flyball tendencies get them into more trouble at Camden Yards, Coors Field or Citizens Bank Park? If we go by home run rates, there seems to be a legitimate cause for concern. Eight starting pitchers qualified for our study, and their home run rates at low-homer and homer-neutral parks are listed below alongside their home run rates at homer-friendly parks. Only Jered Weaver and Brandon McCarthy have had lower home run rates at the home run parks than at the other venues. The pattern for the six remaining pitchers is exactly as we would expect. In fact, Matt Cain and Chris R. Young have become completely different pitchers when they take the mound at one of the major league's launching pads. They transform from reliable home run preventers to long ball dispensers.

Note: Pitching stats from the following stadiums were included in the home run parks part of the analysis: U.S Cellular Field, Great American Ball Park, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Citizens Bank Park, Coors Field, Wrigley Field, Chase Field, Rogers Centre, Minute Maid Park and the new Yankee Stadium.

While the overall trend is in line with our expectations, there is one caveat worth paying some attention to. Even though we are using two and a half years' worth of data, nearly all of our flyball pitchers have managed to avoid the worst home run parks for all but a handful of starts. Only Lilly, who has pitched his home games at Wrigley Field since '07, and Young, have started more than seven games in the extreme homer parks during the study period. Lilly is the only pitcher in this set who has pitched a sizeable number innings in both categories of ballpark, and while his home run rate has been higher in the homer-friendly parks, the difference is not dramatic. Given the generally small sample sizes, can we safely assume that the differences in home run rates will translate into differences in these pitchers' Fantasy performances?

For those who really like to micromanage, the answer, sadly, is no. Only three of the eight pitchers have posted higher ERAs in the home run parks than in the other stadiums. Lilly's results, which have their basis in the largest and most balanced sample of innings of all these pitchers, are the most telling. Despite his higher home run park HR/9 and large data pool, Lilly's ERA still turns out to be lower in the homer-friendly venues. Even more surprising, his won-lost record in those stadiums (29-15, .659 winning percentage) is far superior to his record in other stadiums (10-8, .556). Home field advantage in Lilly's Wrigley Field games only goes so far in explaining this difference.

Meanwhile, only Young, Kevin Slowey and Tim Wakefield have managed to turn lower HR/9 rates in homer-averse and homer-neutral parks into a lower ERA. Over the last two seasons, Slowey and Wakefield have combined to go 1-6 with a 5.64 ERA in 11 homer park starts. These are results you want to avoid, but with such a small sample, it's hard to be confident that the results would be just as bad over their next 11 combined starts. Only Young offers home run park stats -- a 2-6 record and 6.65 ERA in 14 starts -- dreadful enough to trigger a red flag. If Young can't produce this kind of split, then no one can. He is the big league's most extreme flyball hurler pitching his home games in one of the most homer-averse parks.

If we could find that flyball tendencies truly made a difference in how well pitchers performed in different ballparks, the implications would extend beyond the owners of these eight pitchers. In addition to the starting pitchers featured in this analysis, another eight currently have flyball rates of at least 43 percent for this season. Some, like J.A. Happ and Koji Uehara, didn't qualify for the analysis because they are rookies, while others, like Jeremy Guthrie and Randy Wolf, are recent converts to extreme flyball pitching. But it appears that owners of Happ, Guthrie, et. al. can rest easy and leave the micromanaging to others. The data just doesn't support the idea that it's worth the time and trouble to shift these pitchers in and out of your rotation.

Scrap my old advice. My new advice to owners is this: If you own Young, pay close attention to where he is pitching and adjust his roster status accordingly. Otherwise, don't worry about it.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.