Pitching Forecaster: Planning for the short week

The most loathed humans in the world are car sales people, lawyers and the local weather person -- in any particular order. The first two want your money, the latter merely asks you to lend your ear and have some faith in them, despite some past miscalculations.

If more ordinary people played Fantasy, CBSSports.com player updaters would be among those above. Heck, they might be anyway, especially this Pitching Forecaster.

"Why isn't so-and-so getting two starts this week?"

"What the heck? Why didn't they tell me Ryan Dempster broke his toe and is going on the DL instead of getting two starts?!"

Wah, wah, wah. Cry us a break. You might even be so turned off, you resort to your own devices.

Good luck with that.

No one can be 100 percent accurate in this business -- that is why we play the game(s) -- but this particular column might be one of the most important ones of the season. The short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break is a tricky time for projecting your pitching staff.

The team-by-team breakdown below should help make some sense of those that will start, might start and likely won't start. Heck, you might not even be able to field a full active pitching staff if you don't plan early. Start now.

Almost half of the league plays only three games after the break. They are: Arizona, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago White Sox, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, N.Y. Yankees, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Texas and Toronto. That means of the 150 starting pitchers on 25-man rosters in baseball, 44 of them won't be getting any starts in the shortened week.

What makes setting your lineup early next week challenging is many of the rotations won't be decided until after the All-Star Game, which is why we won't be publishing the weekly Pitching Planner on Sunday night as usual this week. That makes this Pitching Forecaster even more important to you. Enough of the sales pitch and the legalese disclaimers, though.

We won't be able nail all of the projected starters and sitters 100 percent. But, hey geniuses, tell us with similar confidence: Is it going to rain tomorrow?

Arizona Diamondbacks

1. Dan Haren (Yes)
2. Max Scherzer (Yes)
3. Doug Davis (Yes)
4. Jon Garland (Probably not)
5. Yusmeiro Petit (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder). He is merely hoping to return in September now, but at least he has dodged surgery to this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. Parker will pitch in the Futures Game and could be a second-half candidate. The fact the D-Backs are out of the race makes them in no hurry to rush their best pitching prospect, though.

Atlanta Braves

1. Derek Lowe (Yes)
2. Javier Vazquez (Yes)
3. Jair Jurrjens (Yes)
4. Tommy Hanson (Probably)
5. Kenshin Kawakami (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow). Hudson will begin a rehab assignment July 19, which makes him a potential August returnee coming off Tommy John elbow surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. The depth will come from a returning Hudson or relievers Kris Medlen, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jorge Campillo, if needed, later this season. We don't see the Braves needing rotation help, but Medlen is nice trade bait.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Jeremy Guthrie (Yes)
2. Rich J. Hill (Probably)
3. Brad Bergesen (Probably)
4. David Hernandez (Probably not)
5. Jason Berken (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Koji Uehara (shoulder) and Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season). Uehara is no better than a September returnee at this point. He is a surgery candidate if that partial flexor tendon tear becomes a complete one.
Starters to watch in the minors: Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton and Brandon Erbe. There is talk Tillman won't be far from a call-up amid the struggles of some of the O's five starters. We think this five would be better than their current five right now.

Boston Red Sox

1. Josh Beckett (Yes)
2. Jon Lester (Yes)
3. Tim Wakefield (Probably)
4. John Smoltz (Probably not)
5. Brad Penny (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder). They are suggesting Dice-K will be out until Sept. 1, but that really is a function of the Red Sox's pitching depth in the majors and Triple-A right now. If the Red Sox really needed a starter, they would get Dice-K revved up for a return in a matter of weeks. Keep Dice-K stashed in all leagues right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa. We think more and more Buchholz likely will be given a start in the majors before the end of July. With a solid performance in that outing, he could be slotted in their rotation from there on out or be big-time trade bait.

Chicago Cubs

1. Carlos Zambrano (Yes)
2. Ted Lilly (Yes)
3. Rich Harden (Yes)
4. Randy Wells (Yes)
5. Kevin Hart (No)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Ryan Dempster (toe). His bad break was surprising and could keep him out well into August at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Jeff Samardzija was called up to pitch in relief, but Dempster's injury could force him to be stretched out for the rotation. They had chosen to make Sean Marshall a lefty reliever, but might they go back on that decision now? Either way, the Cubs' depth will come from the bullpen and not the minors right now.

Chicago White Sox

1. Mark Buehrle (Yes)
2. John Danks (Yes)
3. Gavin Floyd (Yes)
4. Jose A. Contreras (No)
5. Clayton Richard (No)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Bartolo Colon (knee). He could return in the second half, but he is only worth stashing on DL spots in deeper AL-only leagues still.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Aaron Poreda is the White Sox's go to rotation replacement in the second half, so Richard will be pitching for his rotation spot this week. The White Sox have already showed interest in dealing for a front-line starter, having been rejected by Peavy.

Cincinnati Reds

1. Aaron Harang (Yes)
2. Johnny Cueto (Yes)
3. Bronson Arroyo (Yes)
4. Micah Owings (Yes)
5. Homer Bailey (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Edinson Volquez (elbow). Volquez is throwing again, but he won't be brought back before the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break. He might need the rest of July at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Matt Maloney. Volquez's return should precede any potential call-up the Reds would consider right now.

Cleveland Indians

1. Cliff Lee (Yes)
2. Carl Pavano (Yes)
3. David Huff (Probably)
4. Aaron Laffey (Probably)
5. Jeremy Sowers (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Scott Lewis (elbow), Jake Westbrook (elbow) and Anthony Reyes (elbow, out for the season). Lewis and Westbrook aren't close at this point and are no better than August returnees.
Starters to watch in the minors: Fausto Carmona, Charles Lofgren, Jeanmar Gomez and Hector Rondon. Carmona has been outstanding in the minors and is an immediate flier in deeper leagues right now. He might even take Sowers' rotation spot Sunday, July 12. These other prospects don't figure to be options before August, if at all this season.

Colorado Rockies

1. Aaron Cook (Yes)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Yes)
3. Jason Marquis (Yes)
4. Jason Hammel (Probably)
5. Jorge De La Rosa (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Jhoulys Chacin, Christian Friedrich, Greg Smith, Jason Hirsh, Greg Reynolds (7-day DL). Franklin Morales is up to help out the bullpen, mostly because the Rockies' current five have been so solid recently. The Rockies will need a replacement starter before long. Morales or Chacin are the best bets to make significant Fantasy impacts in the second half.

Detroit Tigers

1. Justin Verlander (Yes)
2. Edwin Jackson (Yes)
3. Rick Porcello (Probably)
4. Armando Galarraga (Probably not)
5. Luke French (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Dontrelle Willis (anxiety) and Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder). These guys figure to be given into August to prove capable of returning. We already saw enough to know we might not care when they are ready to return at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brooks Brown, Chris Lambert and Alfredo Figaro. French is a sleeper to stick around, but the Tigers are most likely to add a potential starter via trade before the deadline. These prospects aren't much to anticipate yet.

Florida Marlins

1. Josh Johnson (Yes)
2. Ricky Nolasco (Yes)
3. Chris Volstad (Yes)
4. Andrew Miller (Yes)
5. Sean West (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Anibal Sanchez (shoulder). He will get the month of July and into August to prove healthy again, but his shoulder has been shaky for years. We don't see a whole lot of value here at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Rick VandenHurk, Ryan Tucker (7-day DL), Graham Taylor and Aaron Thompson. The Marlins would likely go to VandenHurk if they need a starter, but it will likely take an injury to one of their steady young five right now. Nothing is imminent here.

Houston Astros

1. Roy Oswalt (Yes)
2. Wandy Rodriguez (Yes)
3. Mike Hampton (Yes)
4. Russ Ortiz (Probably)
5. Brian Moehler (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Bud Norris. Felipe Paulino was moved to the bullpen, but Norris is someone to actually be excited about in the second half. He should arrive and could impact all Fantasy leagues immediately.

Kansas City Royals

1. Zack Greinke (Yes)
2. Gil Meche (Yes)
3. Brian Bannister (Probably)
4. Luke Hochevar (Probably not)
5. Bruce Chen (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Sidney Ponson (elbow). The Royals likely will only bring Ponson off the DL as a long reliever in the second half.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Davies and Danny Cortes. Davies has a 0.47 ERA through three Triple-A starts, which could make him a candidate to return to the rotation in the second half. Bannister, Hochevar and Chen will be pitching for their rotation spot.

Los Angeles Angels

1. John Lackey (Yes)
2. Jered Weaver (Yes)
3. Ervin Santana (Probably)
4. Joe Saunders (Yes)
5. TBD, likely Sean O'Sullivan or less likely Matt Palmer (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Shane Loux (shoulder) and Dustin Moseley (elbow). Loux is on a rehab assignment, while Moseley is not close.
Starters to watch in the minors: O'Sullivan, Jordan Walden, Trevor Bell and Trevor Reckling. O'Sullivan was solid as the No. 5 starter and is likely to return to the rotation after the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.

Los Angeles Dodgers

1. Chad Billingsley (Yes)
2. Randy Wolf (Yes)
3. Hiroki Kuroda (Yes)
4. Clayton Kershaw (Yes)
5. Jeff Weaver (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Eric Milton (back) and Jason Schmidt (shoulder). Milton just went back on the DL, while Schmidt was recently shut down on his rehab assignment. Neither will be options for the Dodgers until August and, come that time, they are likely to have made a trade-deadline acquisition.
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom. James McDonald and Eric Stults figure to be initial options if Weaver or a potential acquisition aren't. Lindblom and McDonald are the top prospects, but they are mostly relievers down the stretch.

Milwaukee Brewers

1. Yovani Gallardo (Yes)
2. Jeff Suppan (Yes)
3. Braden Looper (Yes)
4. Mike Burns (Probably not)
5. TBD, like Manny Parra (Probably)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Dave Bush (shoulder). Bush will need a few weeks off from throwing, so you cannot expect him to be a candidate to return until at least late July or into August.
Starters to watch in the minors: Manny Parra. Parra looks like he is returning to the rotation this weekend, and he will be needed in the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.

Minnesota Twins

1. Scott Baker (Probably)
2. Francisco Liriano (Probably)
3. Nick Blackburn (Probably)
4. Glen Perkins (Probably not)
5. Anthony Swarzak (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Kevin Slowey (side) and Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season). Slowey won't be needed until after the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kevin Mulvey. Swarzak is ahead of him in the pecking order right now, but Mulvey could change that come August and beyond.

New York Mets

1. Johan Santana (Yes)
2. Mike Pelfrey (Yes)
3. Livan Hernandez (Yes)
4. Oliver Perez (Probably)
5. Fernando Nieve (No)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: John Maine (shoulder). Maine will need a rehab stint before a potential return, but the Mets won't need a No. 5 starter until after the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jon Niese, Brad Holt and Tobi Stoner. Niese is on an amazing roll in his past 43 1/3 innings (1.04 ERA). There is talk he could replace Nieve in the rotation this Friday, but the potential return of Maine could slow the Mets on calling Niese for merely one start. With the season all but sunk, there is no rush on Niese, who has struggled in the majors.

New York Yankees

1. CC Sabathia (Yes)
2. A.J. Burnett (Yes)
3. Andy Pettitte (Probably)
4. Joba Chamberlain (Probably not)
5. TBD, Sergio Mitre or Alfredo Aceves (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder). Wang will be out until at least mid-August at this point, but keep him stashed in deeper leagues right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa. Phil Hughes is moving closer to being a setup option than a replacement for Wang in the No. 5 spot at this point. Kennedy is throwing again but is not yet ready for minor league games after aneurysm surgery. That could happen in August. We doubt he gets starts in the majors this season.

Oakland Athletics

1. Dallas Braden (Yes)
2. Trevor Cahill (Probably)
3. Brett Anderson (Probably)
4. Vin Mazzaro (Probably)
5. Dana Eveland or Gio Gonzalez (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow) and Josh Outman (elbow, out for the season). The Duke will need a lengthy rehab assignment if he even projects to return as a starter in the second half. Keep him stashed.
Starters to watch in the minors: James J. Simmons. Eveland and Gonzalez, the loser of the No. 5 starter's derby will be the more likely fill-in starters in the second half. It is also possible the A's acquire a starter in a potential Matt Holliday trade, too.

Philadelphia Phillies

1. Cole Hamels (Yes)
2. Joe Blanton (Yes)
3. Jamie Moyer (Yes)
4. J.A. Happ (Probably)
5. Rodrigo Lopez (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Antonio Bastardo (shoulder) and Brett Myers (hip, out for the season). Bastardo will need at least a month, but we don't see the Phillies calling upon him in their rotation once healthy. They are likely to make an addition before the trade deadline, perhaps with Pedro Martinez out of free agency.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Kyle Drabek and Andrew Carpenter. These prospects are more likely to be used as trade bait or spot starters in the second half with this top contender at this point. Drabek, a Tommy John surgery survivor, might be the most intriguing one long term.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1. Zach Duke (Yes)
2. Paul Maholm (Yes)
3. Ross Ohlendorf (Probably)
4. Charlie Morton (Probably not)
5. Virgil Vasquez (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). He could be ready to start a rehab assignment soon, but he will need a full month on a rehab stint at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. Jeff Karstens is working in long relief, but Snell and Gorzelanny are trying to remake their careers back on the farm. They are potential rotation reinforcements in the second half.

San Diego Padres

1. Kevin Correia (Yes)
2. Chad Gaudin (Yes)
3. Josh Geer (Probably)
4. Josh Banks (Probably)
5. TBD, likely Tim Stauffer (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Jake Peavy (ankle), Chris R. Young (shoulder), Cha Seung Baek (elbow) and Shawn Hill (elbow, out for the season). Baek has begun a rehab assignment and Young could be an August returnee. Peavy looks like a September option at best right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Matt Latos, Cesar Carrillo, Nick Schmidt, Wade LeBlanc, Will Inman and perhaps Mark Prior. Latos, selected for the Futures Game, could really position himself for a second-half call-up if he continues his Double-A mastery and performs well on the big stage.

San Francisco Giants

1. Tim Lincecum (Yes)
2. Matt Cain (Yes)
3. Barry Zito (Probably)
4. Jonathan O. Sanchez (Probably not)
5. Ryan Sadowski (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Randy Johnson (shoulder) and Noah Lowry (shoulder, out for the season). Johnson will need at least a few weeks off. There is no way of telling how long this might last at this point. They hope it will be just 15 days, but you never know with rotator cuff issues. Our gut says this is bad news.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner, Timothy Alderson and Kevin Pucetas. Johnson's injury makes it more and more possible we see one of these guys in August.

Seattle Mariners

1. Felix Hernandez (Yes)
2. Erik Bedard (Probably)
3. Jarrod Washburn (Yes)
4. Brandon Morrow (Probably)
5. Jason M. Vargas (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Carlos Silva (shoulder) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Ryan Rowland-Smith. Garrett Olson is back in long relief with the return of Bedard, but he is likely going to rejoin the rotation once Bedard is dealt or there is another injury or demotion to the bullpen.

St. Louis Cardinals

1. Chris Carpenter (Yes)
2. Adam Wainwright (Yes)
3. Joel Pineiro (Probably)
4. Todd Wellemeyer (Probably not)
5. Brad Thompson, but Kyle Lohse is expected to return July 12 (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Lohse (elbow) and Jaime Garcia (elbow, out for the season). Lohse is planning a return July 12 at this point, but he likely won't be an option to pitch in the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.
Starters to watch in the minors: Mitchell Boggs, P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortensen. The Cardinals are getting Lohse back and seem resigned to keeping these guys in the Triple-A rotation or the Cardinals bullpen in lieu of Thompson.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. James Shields (Yes)
2. Scott Kazmir (Yes)
3. Matt Garza (Yes)
4. David Price (Probably not)
5. Jeff Niemann (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andy Sonnanstine and Wade Davis. They are solid depth, but they are more likely to be trade bait than arrive in the Rays rotation this season.

Texas Rangers

1. Kevin Millwood (Yes)
2. Vicente Padilla (Yes)
3. Scott Feldman (Yes)
4. Tommy Hunter (Probably not)
5. Derek Holland or Dustin Nippert (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Matt Harrison (shoulder), Brandon McCarthy (shoulder) and Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season). Harrison will get through the end of July at least, while McCarthy might not return at all this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Neftali Feliz, Michael Main, Thomas Diamond and Kasey Kiker. Feliz is going to arrive in the bullpen, according to the Rangers' current plans. The contender is likely to add a veteran before calling on one of these guys.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Roy Halladay (Yes)
2. Ricky Romero (Yes)
3. Brian Tallet (Probably)
4. Marc Rzepczynski (Probably not)
5. Brett Cecil (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Three.
Starters on the DL: Shaun Marcum (elbow), Scott Richmond (shoulder), Casey Janssen (shoulder), Bobby Ray (shoulder), Dustin McGowan (shoulder), and Jesse Litsch (elbow, out for the season). Marcum began a rehab assignment and looks like a potential August returnee. The question is whether he will return to a rotation that includes Halladay. Richmond could return sooner than that, but not in the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills and David Purcey. Mills got passed over for Rzepczynski, who could prove himself a mainstay in the next week. Mills and Purcey will have a hard time arriving when the injured pitchers begin returning in late July.

Washington Nationals

1. John Lannan (Yes)
2. Scott Olsen (Yes)
3. Jordan Zimmermann (Yes)
4. Ross Detwiler (Probably)
5. Craig Stammen (Probably not)

Number of games in Week 15: Four.
Starters on the DL: Matt Chico (elbow). He is working a rehab assignment, but he will get until late June to prove healthy and effective enough to be activated.
Starters to watch in the minors: Shairon Martis and Stephen Strasburg (still unsigned). Martis was solid in his first Triple-A start and could be a candidate to replace Stammen after the short Fantasy Week 15 (July 16-19) that follows the All-Star break.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball pitching questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Pitching Forecaster in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.