By the Numbers: BABIP flukes at the break

When we spot suspicious trends in a player's batting average on balls in play (BABIP), it can often help us to identify imminent changes in that player's fortunes.

Can BABIP also help us to make sense of All-Star surprises and snubs? Of course it can. Ben Zobrist wasn't even on the ballot, but his .998 OPS earned him a spot on the AL squad. Is he really a deserving All Star or just a BABIP fluke? We probably shouldn't expect Zobrist to hit another 16 homers in the second half, but his .294 BABIP suggests that there is nothing out of line about his .281 batting average. On the other hand, Ryan Franklin's .200 BABIP and his long-standing record of low strikeout rates has "one-time All Star" written all over it. Is Jason Marquis a one-hit All-Star wonder? Probably, but some of his surprising performance is for real. I have more thoughts on this further down below.

Did AL snubs Adam Lind and Shin-Soo Choo really deserve a chance to play in the Midsummer Classic, or are they just flukes? Both have high BABIP rates, but these have been supported by high line drive rates. Jon Lester's .347 BABIP tells us that he deserves much better than his 4.16 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He has the skill profile of an All-Star pitcher, but unfortunately he will have to wait for another year and better luck to take part in the game. Javier Vazquez, one of the more notable NL snubs, hasn't been ripped off by an unlucky BABIP rate, but his 2.63 ERC and spectacular strikeout and walk rates suggest that he belongs on the NL squad.

None of this may be of much help in gearing your Fantasy team for the second half, but then, that's what the rest of this column is for. Here are this week's highlights of the players riding too high and too low, and also a couple who may have more potential than you think.

Lucky Players

Scott Hairston, OF, Oakland: Hairston's move from San Diego to Oakland looks like good news for AL-only owners looking for a quick offense boost. In addition to his usual home run power, Hairston is suddenly flirting with a .300 average and has even managed to drive in runs in a Padres lineup that offers few opportunities. Of course, the A's offense is only marginally more potent than San Diego's, and Hairston's high batting average is just not built to last. His previous high BABIP for a full season is .298, far below his current .345. Though his record on balls in play has improved due to a scorching-hot 23 percent line drive rate, Hairston is still too much of a flyball hitter to maintain such a high BABIP. Because of his home run potential, he can still be a help in AL-only leagues, but expect a batting average closer to .270 going forward.

Garrett Olson, SP, Seattle: In Monday's column I explained why I decided to abandon my favorite rule for managing flyball pitchers in Fantasy. While I will no longer bench a flyball pitcher just because he's slated for a start in a home run park, Flyball Pitcher Rule No. 2 still applies. This rule states: If your pitcher has a flyball rate over 50 percent, gives up a pair of homers every nine innings and isn't striking out the universe, you need to let him go immediately in all formats. Yes, I did create this rule especially for Garrett Olson. It could be tempting to place a claim on Olson, given his availability in most leagues and the fact that he has rattled off good starts back-to-back, but the success he has had is owed almost entirely to a Munchkin-sized .230 BABIP. There are some reasons to hold out hope for Olson, such as his improved control and previous track record of more moderate flyball tendencies. However, until he can keep his current flyball and home run rates in check, Olson should be avoided, period.

Unlucky Players

Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, Seattle: It seems like we have been watching Junior ride slowly into the sunset for years now. His performance has sagged further and further over each of the last four seasons, and now he is at the point where his OPS has fallen to what would be a career-worst .737. If this looks like reason enough for his few remaining owners to cut bait, realize that this is a case where looks are deceiving. Griffey is actually hitting with more power and patience than he did last year, but it's just not showing up in his batting average. His whiff rate has been as steady as they come over the last five years, and here's the trend (in percentages) to prove it: 19, 18, 19, 18, 18. The drop in his batting average is due to a decreasing BABIP, most of which is just random fluctuation. He certainly deserves better than a .216 BABIP and .214 batting average, and there is no reason why he shouldn't fare much better in the second half.

Brett Cecil, SP, Toronto: For an extreme ground ball pitcher like Cecil, giving up eight dingers in his first 39 big league innings looks like an unfortunate small sample fluke. Just as damaging, and just as aberrant, is the .379 BABIP that Cecil is carrying around after eight appearances. Clearly, the gopher balls have been a problem for Cecil, but even so, he just hasn't been as atrocious as his 6.23 ERA and 1.79 WHIP would suggest. He has done a reasonably good job missing bats and minimizing free passes, so with a more realistic BABIP, Cecil would have a WHIP around 1.50. This is still not good, but it does at least put Cecil in the same WHIP class with Andy Pettitte and Brad Penny. Once he gets his home rate down, Cecil will truly be as valuable in Fantasy as either of those veterans.

Players Who Could Be For Real

Jason Marquis, SP, Colorado: Marquis has joined a stable of Colorado ground ball pitchers, all of whom are sporting ground ball rates of 47 percent of higher. Coors Field is as good a place as any for Marquis to ply his trade, but he has made the most of his new environment by cranking his ground ball rate up to 58 percent. The reduction in flyballs and, more important, home runs, has helped Marquis to his 11 wins, 3.61 ERA and All-Star berth, but so has a lower walk rate. Also playing a supporting role is a .271 BABIP that is helping to keep Marquis' ERA and WHIP a tad lower than they probably should be. In short, Marquis is definitely an improved pitcher this season, but without a little bit of good luck on balls in play, he is probably neither an All Star nor a pitcher worthy of a mixed league roster spot.

Matt Diaz, OF, Atlanta: His 2008 campaign was derailed by a partially-torn PCL in his left knee, but this is starting to look like a solid comeback season for Diaz. His .320 batting average is right in line with what he achieved in his first seasons with the Braves, and the way he is building his high average is also consistent with his earlier successes. Diaz is only an average contact and power hitter, but he excels at driving balls in play for base hits. Diaz' current .387 BABIP is not far above his career .363 rate, so skeptics waiting for his batting average to slip significantly will probably be disappointed. All that is keeping Diaz from being a staple of NL-only leagues is his platoon status, but already Bobby Cox has started to notice that he deserves to play ahead of Jeff Francoeur against righties.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.