Sliders: Prado is not for every Fantasy owner

It's Asdrubal Cabrera all over again.

You don't want to believe in him. He doesn't have the power or the pedigree. He's a fluke, a flash in the pan, a utility infielder masquerading as an everyday player. So you have no problem folding your arms, counting your blessings and letting all those points go to someone else.

That is, until he smacks you in the face with a double.

Because that's what Martin Prado offers: double after pop-o-matic double.

It makes a difference, perhaps not in Rotisserie leagues where a player pretty much needs to hit homers or steal bases to have any significance -- neither of which Prado does in abundance -- but in Head-to-Head leagues, no matter how a player gets them, points are points are points.

And Prado managed to score more than anyone last week.

Sliders These guys haven't just gotten hot or cold. Their recent play has caused their Fantasy appeal to "slide" one way or another.

Martin Prado, 1B/2B/3B, Braves

Of course, he also hit .577 (15 for 26) for the week. That's not going to happen again. Yes, we can safely assume Prado will never have a week quite like the one he just had. And he shouldn't. He's not Albert Pujols.

But that doesn't mean he doesn't have value. Not everyone needs to hit 20 homers to matter in Fantasy, as the aforementioned Cabrera has demonstrated, along with Scott Rolen, James Loney and even Todd Helton.

Prado has something in common with each of those players. He routinely hits over .300, rarely strikes out (entering Tuesday's game with 13 strikeouts compared to 16 walks), and has the kind of extra-base pop that would translate to 40-plus doubles over a full season.

Now that he has the starting job over Fantasy disaster Kelly Johnson, he finally has an opportunity to show off his skill set -- a skill set that might not produce eye-popping, league-leading numbers, but one that certainly makes him useful.

So what distinguishes him from one of my more memorable "Hanging Sliders" from earlier in the year, Marco Scutaro? Perception. At the time I wrote about Scutaro, he was owned in 90 percent of CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues. Prado is owned in 31 percent.

And that's the point. If Prado was owned in 90 percent of leagues, I might be singing a completely different tune right now. In fact, as I write this column, he remains unowned in three of my Fantasy leagues, and I don't intend to pick him up in any of them.

But in the right situation, I would. I'd certainly take him over every Placido Polanco and Felipe Lopez out there, which means he deserves more credit than the Fantasy-playing community has given him so far.

Joba Chamberlain, SP, Yankees

I predict Chamberlain will throw a quality start next time out.

Why? It'll come on the road, where he has a 2.74 ERA compared to a 5.36 ERA at home. And it's not all the wind tunnel either. He walks 50 percent more batters at home than on the road.

So why do I predict something good for Chamberlain when I have a down arrow next to his name? Come to think of it, why did I just spend half my love letter to Martin Prado explaining why you shouldn't own him? Is today opposite day, or do I just not know which way's up?

Try neither. See, I shouldn't have to point out the good qualities of a pitcher drafted in 97 percent of leagues. They should be plainly obvious. So the very fact I had to mention Chamberlain's strengths and give you some reason to start him instead of stapling him to your bench shows he hasn't lived up to expectations this year.

If you drafted him, you drafted him as your third starting pitcher. I don't know about you, but I expect to keep my third starting pitcher active every time he takes the mound. Clearly, you can't do that with Chamberlain -- or you wouldn't want to, anyway. He's a platoon pitcher worth starting on the road, but not so much at home.

And even on the road, where he's at his supposed best, he still suffers from many of the same shortcomings. He walks too many batters. He doesn't pitch deep enough into games. He's like last year's Daisuke Matsuzaka, only without the consistently high strikeout totals. Take away his 12-strikeout performance against the Red Sox on May 5 -- which came at home, ironically enough -- and he has a season high of six. Yeah, six. Move over, Joe Saunders.

The guy clearly has talent. He projects as a strikeout pitcher and certainly deserves a long look in the starting rotation. But at age 23, he still has to get over some of the same hurdles all 23-year-old pitchers have to get over.

Yet he remains owned in 94 percent of leagues. I'm not saying he's a must-cut or anything -- I can't think of many scenarios where I would cut him -- but I can think of other, lesser-owned pitchers I'd prefer to have instead. Ricky Nolasco, for one, but we'll get to him later ...

Cody Ross, OF, Marlins

I went all-in on Ross when he hit .280 with 10 home runs in May last year, pointing out he had a higher slugging percentage as a part-timer in 2007 than any other player in baseball.

Of course, then he went on to hit .273 with 12 home runs over the final four months, making most of the hype unfounded and my words nothing more than an underhanded tactic designed to ruin everyone else's waiver priority.

Yeah, I got you. I got you good.

At least, that's the excuse I'll use now, and it's the excuse I'll probably use again if the following statement comes back to bite me: I think it's different this year.

Ross' inconsistencies of the past, I think they're gone. His OPS looked about the same in May, .877, as in June, .913, and he's off to an even better start this month. All told, that's a .311 batting average and 11 home runs since the end of April.

Consistency often comes with maturity, and Ross just turned 28 in the offseason. We might've just seen him turn the corner.

Of course, that doesn't mean he'll hit .300 from here on out. His high strikeout rate probably prevents that. But if he can hit .280 and continue to homer at a steady pace, he's not all that different from Michael Cuddyer, really.

That makes him, what, a fourth outfielder in Fantasy? That type of player deserves a roster spot in most leagues, certainly more than his current 70 percent ownership rate would suggest.

Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B, Orioles

It was fun, wasn't it? 2008?

Huff should know. He pretty much owned it, setting career highs in RBI and runs scored and producing his highest batting average and most home runs since his breakout -- and equally fluky -- 2003 campaign.

Ah, memories.

But it's back to business as usual, right, Aubrey, buddy?

Look, I wanted the best for Huff. I drafted him in who knows how many expert leagues just because he kept dropping and dropping. But by now, I pretty much have to face the facts.

When a guy who normally hits .260-.280 with 20-25 home runs suddenly explodes for a .300 batting average and 30 home runs one season only to find himself on a .266, 21-homer pace halfway through the following season, gee, which one looks like the fluke?

Yes, you can point out Huff got off to a slow start last year only to heat up in June. But it's July now. And regardless, when a player has a group of people lined up and ready to call him a fluke, he has to shut them up right away. Otherwise, their argument gains all the credibility, which is where we find ourselves now.

Owned in 98 percent of leagues? Please. Huff's RBI pace makes him worth starting more often than not, but the guy who owns Russell Branyan instead is laughing all the way to the bank.

Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins

Speaking of guys who unexpectedly broke out in June last year, Nolasco certainly fits the bill. And like Huff, he struggled out of the gate this season -- so much, in fact, that the Marlins ended up sending him to the minor leagues.

So ... to summarize, he's just like Huff ... who I just labeled a bust this year. Uh, would I care to revise my last statement?

Not a chance, people. The difference here is age. It's projectability. Players don't break out at age 31 in their ninth season like Huff did last year. At age 25 in their third season, on the other hand, that makes sense, and it explains why Nolasco deserves a longer leash than Huff. And oh yeah, there's also the numbers thing.

In six starts since returning from the minors, Nolasco has a 1.54 ERA, recording 45 strikeouts and issuing seven walks in 41 innings. That streak started on June 7. Beginning from that same date last year, Nolasco had a 2.83 ERA, recording 146 strikeouts and issuing 17 walks in 146 1/3 innings. Shocking, the similarities.

He's too good not to stay this way. Pitchers who strike out so many batters and yet walk so few don't come around often, and the ones who do have names like Dan Haren and Roy Halladay.

I don't know what happened to Nolasco earlier in the season. Don't care either. As far as I'm concerned, it's over and done. He's back pitching the way he always should have, meaning I expect nothing less than last year's 2.83 ERA the rest of the way.

He's an ace with the price tag of a No. 3 Fantasy starting pitcher and is something of a buy-low -- yes, buy-low -- candidate right now. If you can find someone who thinks he's a sell-high candidate, you can make some magic happen.

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Scott Feldman, SP, Rangers

Ah, Feldman ... the Bizarro World version of Cosmo Kramer.

And this year in Fantasy, we apparently got the Bizzaro World version of Feldman himself, because this one is, uh, kind of good.

The wheels have to come off for him, though. He was a converted middle reliever, and not even a particularly good one. He never lasts seven innings and walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out. His 3.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP simply don't jive, and considering his inadequate walk rate combined with his inability to miss bats, the WHIP is the one more likely to change. When more of those hits start falling, the floodgates will open, and he'll have some ugly starts in that hitter's park.

That doesn't mean he doesn't have any value. Even with a 4.50 ERA, he could win 14 games. He's kind of the AL version of Braden Looper, ranking somewhere between Vicente Padilla and Matt Harrison in terms of Fantasy usefulness, which pretty much makes him not worth owning in mixed leagues.

Sure, you can lean on him now. If you have to, go for it. But at some point later this season, Feldman will begin doing your team more harm than good.

And the world will be right again.

Change-ups For every correct prediction, there is an equal and opposite incorrect prediction. At times, I have to "change up" some of my own just to save face.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs

It happened. I couldn't tell you how or when -- the archives don't even go back that far -- but I pronounced Lee dead as a power hitter. Through April, he had only eight home runs over his last five months of play -- a span of 463 at-bats. It just made too much sense.

Now, nothing makes sense anymore. The guy's hitting .326 (62 for 190) with 15 home runs since the beginning of May and looks like an MVP candidate again. I don't know what made him go all Dr. Jekyll -- or is it Mr. Hyde? -- on us, but I haven't gotten a good night's rest since it started.

By now, 30 home runs seems inevitable. Granted, he won't maintain quite this pace, but he won't shrink into the right-handed version of Casey Kotchman again either.

Then again, who knows? It should've never happened in the first place.

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