By the Numbers: Some A's better than others
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson may have spent a year in the minors together, started the year as rookies in the Oakland rotation together, and are equipped with matching 5-7 records.
Yes, Fantasy owners do find these twin rookies adorable, but they haven't always treated them the same. Cahill spent opening day on a CBSSports.com Fantasy roster in 38 percent of leagues, while Anderson got the call in only 26 percent of our leagues. It has taken more than half the season for Anderson to approach Cahill's Fantasy popularity, even though he is dominating Cahill in strikeout, walk and home run ratios. That hasn't translated into more wins or a lower ERA because of some bad luck. Anderson has been on the warpath over his last three starts, and with better run support and a lower BABIP, he has picked up two more wins and a 1.86 ERA over that span.
Anderson has finally given skeptical owners what they have wanted to see, so now he ranks as the Most Added AL player for Week 15. He has the skills the continue pitching this well, and despite the lack of wins, this once-neglected hurler is someone who should be on all owners' radar, even in mixed leagues.
More guys in demand
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Seattle
Week 14 Ownership: 14 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 29 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: Mild-mannered Gutierrez was a .258 hitter before he embarked on his recent hitting streak. Once ignored by just about everyone in Fantasy, the suddenly-scorching outfielder is toying with .300 and is the toast of owners everywhere, or at least those who have been scouring the free agent pool. It's one thing to ride a hot streak when a batter is due for a correction, but Gutierrez is a really, truly a .258 hitter. Even with his streak-enhanced stats, Gutierrez' overall production level is marginally acceptable in AL-only leagues, because he just doesn't hit for enough power. Once he cools off and his BABIP regresses back to around .300, the only reason to roster him is as injury insurance on your reserve squad.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2007 | Cleveland | 7% | 28% | 0.207 | 0.326 | 4.9 | 8 |
| 2008 | Cleveland | 6% | 22% | 0.135 | 0.299 | 3.9 | 9 |
| 2009 | Seattle | 9% | 22% | 0.146 | 0.351 | 5.3 | 5 |
Maicer Izturis, SS, L.A. Angels
Week 14 Ownership: 8 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 18 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 4th (tied)
The Skinny: Izturis is on a tear (17-for-44, .386) that isn't quite the equal of Gutierrez' (21-for-44, .477), but it's made him a wildly popular pickup nonetheless. Forget that Gutierrez has picked up a few more hits than Izturis over the last few games. It's the Angels' shortstop who is the better bet for the second half. He, too, is getting a little too lucky on balls in play, but his foray into .300-plus territory is only a little bit of a stretch. Izturis is a safe bet to maintain a batting average in the .280s for the simple reason that he just doesn't whiff. Take into account his run-scoring potential in the midst of one of baseball's most potent lineups, his ability to swipe a few bags, his high per-game productivity compared to his AL shortstop cohorts, and his growing playing time, and you realize that Izturis is a must-claim in AL-only leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2007 | L.A. Angels | 9% | 12% | 0.116 | 0.313 | 5.4 | 7 |
| 2008 | L.A. Angels | 8% | 9% | 0.093 | 0.288 | 4.2 | 11 |
| 2009 | L.A. Angels | 7% | 10% | 0.117 | 0.329 | 5.6 | 7 |
Other guys drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 14 Ownership | Week 15 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland | 17% | 33% | 16% |
| 3. | Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto | 70% | 83% | 13% |
| 4. | Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit | 38% | 48% | 10% |
Guys Dropping Like Flies
Vin Mazzaro, SP, Oakland
Week 14 Ownership: 36 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 27 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 3rd
The Skinny: After winning his first two major league starts, Mazzaro has failed to notch his third win in five tries. Winning ballgames for the offense-challenged A's is a tough job, but Mazzaro still has a lot to offer owners in AL-only leagues. He doesn't walk many batters, so even with a middling strikeout rate, Mazzaro is a strong candidate to keep his WHIP well below league average. He also doesn't give up many homers, so his mid-3.00s ERA is not a matter of luck. Aside from his most recent start against Cleveland, Mazzaro has pitched well enough to win all of his starts, but his lineup has scored an average of just two runs for each of his seven starts. Even the A's can pony up more run support than this, and the wins will come. Don't hold Mazzaro's winless streak against him; he deserves a chance to be on an active roster in more than just nine percent of our leagues.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2008 | Midland (Double-A) | 2.4 | 6.8 | 0.2 | N/A | N/A |
| 2009 | Sacramento (Triple-A) | 2.7 | 7.0 | 0.3 | N/A | N/A |
| 2009 | Oakland | 2.7 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 0.297 | 3.42 |
Guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 14 Ownership | Week 15 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Matt Palmer, SP, L.A. Angels | 31% | 19% | -12% |
| 2. | Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit | 80% | 70% | -10% |
| 4. | Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland | 43% | 35% | -8% |
| 5. | Jason Kubel, DH, Minnesota | 83% | 77% | -6% |
| 5. | Jason Frasor, RP, Toronto | 34% | 28% | -6% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
