We have learned, yet again, that not all prospects mature at the same rate. Some step forward, many tread water and few hit it big immediately. Some even (Chris Davis) hit it big and then fall flat on their face.
It makes prospect tracking a really difficult business.
Is Davis the next Chris Shelton -- or the next Mark Reynolds/Adam Dunn? We still don't have a definitive answer now, after the Rangers' 30-homer candidate was demoted to the minor leagues with a disgusting 114 strikeouts. Demoted, despite being on a 30-homer pace we had projected for him.
We didn't see a .202 average and a record-breaking strikeout rate.
Davis didn't hit -- at least not consistently enough -- and now it will be interesting to see who the Rangers' future is between the whiffing Davis or the quickly rising slugger prospect Justin Smoak. It will be those two talents, heading in different directions, sharing the first base and DH duties at Triple-A Oklahoma right now.
Smoak, a 2008 first-rounder from South Carolina, hit .328 with six homers, a .449 on-base percentage and a .481 slugging percentage in Double-A, earning his promotion. The power doesn't stick out like it did for Davis a year ago, but his 35-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive for someone with has limited pro experience and plenty of power potential.
It is still our belief Davis will be the better Fantasy option for the second half, but Smoak's talent and long-term potential might get him a call if he can get hot in Triple-A. It hasn't happened yet. Smoak has started 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in four games, a Davis-like .077 stretch.
The return of Josh Hamilton, the breakthrough of Nelson R. Cruz, the comeback of Hank Blalock and the renaissance of Andruw Jones (three homers Wednesday night) gives the Rangers time to decide what the future holds for both of these slugging prospects.
Time tends to give us answers.
Here are some other disappointing minor leaguers/prospects who could potentially come up and make an impact in the second half:
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE -- The Indians demoted Jeremy Sowers to the minors and will next need a No. 5 starter on July 25. Carmona will have a few more starts under his belt and could prove worthy of mixed-league consideration -- especially since that Indians' offense is still pretty productive.
Matt LaPorta, OF, CLE -- Hey, the Indians are rebuilding, so they need to find out what they have down on the farm. LaPorta hasn't been the instant hit we thought he would be but his Triple-A vitals (.307 AVG, .388 OBP, .524 SLUG) suggest he could pop down the stretch for Fantasy owners.
Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA -- The Marlins are in the thick of the pennant race and are not likely to be capable of adding a bat at the trade deadline. They also need to improve their defense. They could kill two birds with the Maybin stone. He is hitting .339-.428-.488 through 47 Triple-A games. The best news is his improved K-to-BB rate (30-23).
Andy Marte, 3B, CLE -- Remember this name? Then you will be shocked to know he is still just 25 years old. You might also be surprised to hear he is hitting .317 with 11 homers and 49 RBI through 69 games in Triple-A. The Indians dealt Mark DeRosa and might deal Jhonny Peralta, too. Marte could impact AL-only leagues in the second half.
Lastings Milledge, OF, PIT -- The Pirates certainly aren't afraid of seeing what they have in the second half. They have been doing it since the early '90s. We don't like his numbers in the minors this season, but his quick bat could surprise us and NL-only owners come August.
Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA -- He is on the bottom of this list because we have given up hope the Angels will use him. There is a chance that the more aggressive new GM will use him as a piece in a trade deadline deal, though. How about him in a package for Roy Halladay and he takes over at shortstop in Toronto? His .313 average and 17 homers look real tantalizing.
Prospect watch
Every week we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
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