By the Numbers: Hampton turning back clock
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
Remember when Mike Hampton was finally freed from Colorado, let out a huge sigh of relief, and then pitched his brains out for the Braves?
Several seasons and a couple of elbow surgeries (including a Tommy John) later, Hampton is back at his I-love-low-altitude best. Owners are starting to take notice, but not as many as there would be if he hadn't missed two full seasons and parts of two others. More owners have been flocking to Giants callup Ryan Sadowski, who had struggled as a starter in Triple-A over the past season and a half. While Sadowski has benefited from an uncharacteristically high ground out-to-air out ratio and a low BABIP, Hampton's 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP are below league average and fluke-free.
He has been on something of a hot streak lately, and with a start this Saturday against the lowly Nats, Hampton has a good chance of extending it into the All-Star break. One more strong start might be just enough to get more owners to notice him. If you're in an NL-only league and need to bolster your pitching for the second half, it's a good idea to grab Hampton now before his stock rises even further.
More guys in demand
Martin Prado, 3B/1B, Atlanta
Week 14 Ownership: 8 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 34 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: Prado won't have many weeks like his last one, where he smacked nine extra-base hits and scored eight times, but the 25 year-old can hit. He's terrific at making contact, and he has more home run power than his minor league numbers would lead you to believe. Prado is no Ian Kinsler, but playing in pitchers' parks in Double-A and Triple-A made him look like Luis Castillo. Think of him as a right-handed Skip Schumaker -- someone who will routinely give you a .300 average but is capable of 10 dingers in a good power year. Prado won't be much of an RBI threat, but he can help enough everywhere else to merit a spot in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2007 | Richmond (Triple-A) | 8% | 11% | 0.105 | 0.346 | N/A | 5 |
| 2008 | Atlanta | 8% | 13% | 0.140 | 0.360 | 6.7 | 3 |
| 2009 | Atlanta | 10% | 8% | 0.182 | 0.336 | 6.5 | 0 |
Doug Davis, SP, Arizona
Week 14 Ownership: 43 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 53 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 7th
The Skinny: By all outward appearances, Davis is having a career year, compiling a 3.13 ERA that would be his best ever. Owners know he can't be blamed for his 4-8 record, and in fact, they're not holding him responsible for it. That's why he's on the Most Added list, right? True enough, only four starting pitchers in the National League have received less run support than Davis. Unfortunately, wins aren't the only things you can't depend on Davis for. His 1.40 WHIP is above the NL average, and his ERC projects that his ERA should be nearly a run higher than it is. Davis' skill ratios are basically the same as they have been the last three seasons, when he posted a cumulative 4.52 ERA. The only difference between now and then is that fluctuations in BABIP and the percentage of baserunners he is stranding are working in his favor ... for now. Davis is a sell-high candidate if there ever was one.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Arizona | 4.4 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.325 | 5.15 |
| 2008 | Arizona | 4.0 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.332 | 4.7 |
| 2009 | Arizona | 4.2 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 0.298 | 4.06 |
Other guys drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 14 Ownership | Week 15 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 2. | Ryan Sadowski, SP, San Francisco | 7% | 27% | 20% |
| 3. | Casey McGehee, 3B, Milwaukee | 47% | 66% | 19% |
| 4. | Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado | 19% | 36% | 17% |
| 5. | Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis | 39% | 54% | 15% |
Guys Dropping Like Flies
Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati
Week 14 Ownership: 61 percent
Week 15 Ownership: 54 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 3rd (tied)
The Skinny: Like Hampton, Arroyo hails from Brooksville, Florida, but that's about all the two pitchers have in common right now. Hampton is missing bats more often than he has in nine years. Hitters are making contact off of Arroyo frequently and loudly. Arroyo has had problems fanning batters in the past, and he has had frequent bouts of gopheritis, but not since his dreadful sophomore season of 2001 has he struggled with both simultaneously. Maybe it has to do with his carpal tunnel syndrome or maybe there's some other mystery cause. Regardless of the reason, there are too many superior options available for Arroyo to still have a roster spot in more than half of our leagues.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Cincinnati | 2.7 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.317 | 4.68 |
| 2008 | Cincinnati | 3.1 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 0.324 | 4.83 |
| 2009 | Cincinnati | 3.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.303 | 6.14 |
Guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 14 Ownership | Week 15 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Fernando Nieve, SP, N.Y. Mets | 48% | 27% | -21% |
| 2. | Juan Pierre, OF, L.A. Dodgers | 62% | 53% | -9% |
| 3. | Livan Hernandez, SP, N.Y. Mets | 33% | 26% | -7% |
| 5. | Kevin Correia, SP, San Diego | 46% | 40% | -6% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
