By the Numbers: Will owners get 'Burned?

A couple of weeks ago, we reviewed some of the more intriguing first-half storylines involving hitters. This time, it's the pitchers turn, and we will examine some of the unexpected developments on the mound. While we're at it, we'll try to make sense of some of these first-half surprises and disappointments. Along the way, there may even be a few insights that could help in the second half, especially if you own or are trying to acquire one of these players.

The story ... Jarrod Washburn and Nick Blackburn emerge from Fantasy oblivion to earn a rotation spot in roughly half of the leagues on this site. Washburn and Blackburn aren't just notable for their successes on the actual and virtual diamonds, but for achieving them without any significant change to their skill profiles. Both are sporting ERAs below 3.10 and below-average WHIPs despite the fact that neither misses a lot of bats. Owners are feelin' the 'burns, because the pair have improved their respective skill sets just enough to help with ERA, WHIP and wins. And a little bit of good luck hasn't hurt their stats much either. Washburn's WHIP would be nowhere near the neighborhood of 1.09 without a big assist from a .249 BABIP. Blackburn's 3.58 ERC tells us that someone with his skill ratios would have normally given up about seven more earned runs than he has by now. While both pitchers should continue to perform well enough to stay on mixed league rosters (though not necessarily on the active roster), both are practically locks to regress towards their more typical stats in the second half.

The story ... Contact pitching catches on in the NL, too. Jason Marquis and Zach Duke have been named to the NL All-Star squad (the latter as an injury replacement), despite neither having a K/9 rate as high as 5.0. (In case you were wondering, the average for the NL is 6.9 so far this year.) Joel Pineiro won't be playing in the midseason exhibition, but he has put up All-Star-like numbers (3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) while taking contact pitching to a whole new level. How many times this decade has a starting pitcher managed both a K/9 rate under 4.0 and a BB/9 rate below 1.0? Just once, when Carlos Silva pulled off the feat in 2005. In other words, Pineiro is giving the Cards defense an unusually heavy workload, but ostensibly they've been up to the task. It's hard to remember when so many pitchers performed this effectively without striking anyone out. The trend has created some great Fantasy bargains, but ultimately owners may get what they paid for. Marquis, Duke and Pineiro haven't benefited from good luck the way that Washburn and Blackburn have, but without picking up their strikeout rates, they will have to continue to be exceptionally stingy with home runs and walks.

The story ... Fantasy owners, not to mention the Steinbrenners, paid dearly for CC Sabathia to be their starting ace, but he currently lags behind Edwin Jackson, Ted Lilly and Wandy Rodriguez, among others, in Fantasy points. Sabathia had the highest average draft position of any starting pitcher, and among AL pitchers, no one was even close. Not Halladay, not Beckett, not anyone. At the break, Sabathia sits behind no fewer than eight starting pitchers in the Fantasy point rankings, and that count includes only the AL pitchers who are ahead of him. Maybe he's trying to be more like Joel Pineiro, because suddenly one of the big league's most consistent strikeout pitchers has a very ordinary 6.6 K/9 rate. Even if we give Sabathia a mulligan on his first four starts, three of which were among his worst for the year, his stats improve only marginally. He has been good, but just not first-pitcher-taken good, and it's hard to explain why he's not clearing the bar he has set for himself over the previous three seasons. Most likely it's just a random bump in the road. Many great pitchers, like Roy Halladay (see 2007) or Johan Santana (also 2007), have hit that same bump during the prime of their careers.

The story ... The American League leaders in Fantasy points among relievers are Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and ... David Aardsma? The Mariners leading the AL in team ERA has to be one of the biggest surprises of the '09 season, and Aardsma has been an important member of this overachieving staff. In March, I wrote that no one in the M's camp had the skill credentials for the closer's role, but Aardsma has been more than capable enough for Seattle -- or for a mixed-league bullpen. Like many analysts, I doubted Aardsma's ability to close out games because of his consistently excessive walk rates. He hasn't found a way to control his mid-90s fastball, but he has somehow found a way to keep the ball in the park, yielding just one homer in 40 1/3 innings. Brad Lidge followed the same recipe last year, giving up only two long balls for the entire season. The difference then was that Lidge limited his flyball rate to just 35 percent, while flies represent half of the balls hit off of Aardsma. The Mariners' closer and his owners are skating on very thin ice.

Speaking of Lidge ...

The story ... The pitching stars of the Phillies' World Series-winning squad fall flat in '09. A big part of the Phils' success last year was Lidge's "perfect" season, as he went 41-for-41 in save opportunities. It took Lidge all of two weeks to blow his first save this year, and then he squandered five more before going on the DL in early June. It's almost as if he and Aardsma have switched bodies, or at least stat lines. Lidge has posted his usual high strikeout and walk rates, but eight homers in 32 innings has gotten him into a world of trouble (i.e., 7.03 ERA, 1.84 WHIP). Lidge has been a little better since being activated from the DL, giving up only one home run in six innings. Only time and more innings will tell if Lidge is still suffering from the effects of a sprained knee and whatever else may have ailed him over the season's first two months.

Lidge pitches just one inning at a time, so he can't take all of the blame for the Phillies' 4.61 team ERA. Ranking 14th in the NL in this category takes teamwork, and Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer have more than pulled their weight in this effort. Injuries to Brett Myers and Antonio Bastardo have left the back end of the rotation in disarray with Rodrigo Lopez as the incumbent fifth starter heading into the break. (I know, I know ... Lopez has done well in his first two starts, but is it really such a good idea to keep sending a pitcher with a career 1.3 HR/9 rate out to the mound at Citizens Bank Park?) Hamels' extended slump is what hurts this team and yours the most. Of the 18 pitchers I included in my preseason list of first- and second-tier NL starters, only Hamels, Brandon Webb (shoulder impingement, only four innings pitched) and Rich Harden (back injury, gopheritis) have ERAs over 4.50. While this may be little comfort for his disappointed owners, Hamels' first-half struggles have nothing to do with a deterioration of his skill set, as his indicators are every bit as good as they were last year. Hamels just needs much better luck on balls in play, and with the .349 BABIP rate he has carried so far, it would be almost impossible for his luck not to improve.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.