Pitching Forecaster: Dealing with potential deals
As if we needed another variable to alter pitching rotations and Fantasy matchups. We finally straighten things out from the All-Star break and we now have to deal with the uncertainty of the trade deadline.
When might Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jarrod Washburn, Bronson Arroyo and Brad Penny start? Heck, who are they going to be starting for, much less who might be opposing them? No clue.
Better yet, for the waiver hounds, who might be replacing them?
Let's try to answer some of the questions here.
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
The Blue Jays gave a deadline for his deal before his Tuesday start, but talks could go on right up the deadline. Even if they say a deal is doubtful.
When does he start this week: Wednesday at Seattle.
When does he start next week: As soon as Monday, and he would be a two-start pitcher.
Who might replace him: The Blue Jays are activating Scott Richmond from the DL, moving Brian Tallet to the bullpen and could also go with a four-man rotation for a few turns. Tallet could return to the rotation, while Shaun Marcum could be ready in mid-August after Tommy John surgery.
Cliff Lee, reportedly dealt to Phillies (updated July 29 at 3:25 p.m. ET)
He heads to an elite contender with a great offense and will be a big-time winner in the second half, despite the hitter's park.
When does he start this week: He could start as soon as Friday and remain on regular rest.
When does he start next week: He could start Thursday or Friday, depending a trade. He will be a must-start one-start pitcher regardless.
Who might replace him: The Indians have Fausto Carmona ready to go in Triple-A, in addition to other solid prospects. Also, the Indians can go with a four-man rotation for a few turns.
Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
Like Lee, he can be dealt and unveiled with his new team this weekend on regular rest.
When does he start this week: He started Tuesday vs. Toronto and could be ready by Sunday again.
When does he start next week: A trade could move him back to being an advisable two-start pitcher next week.
Who might replace him: The Mariners already have to choose between Jason M. Vargas, Garrett Olson and minor leaguers Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell for their No. 4 and 5 spots. The losers of that group could be an option to replace Washburn. A Monday off day could also allow them to skip the No. 5 spot one turn. They will need it before the end of Fantasy Week 18 (Aug. 3-9), though.
Bronson Arroyo, Reds
The fact he has a big contract and needs surgery on carpal tunnel makes it much less likely he will be dealt before the deadline.
When does he start this week: He started Tuesday vs. the Padres and then Sunday vs. the Rockies.
When does he start next week: Like Washburn, he could be held back to next week to be a two-start pitcher.
Who might replace him: The Reds already need to replace Micah Owings (shoulder), so a minor leaguer like Matt Maloney could fill that spot. Edinson Volquez (elbow) could be ready to come off the DL thereafter.
Brad Penny, Red Sox
The Red Sox wouldn't deal Penny in a Halladay trade, but they could flip him in another deal, which could open a rotation spot for anyone coming in or whatever prospect wasn't sent out.
When does he start this week: Wednesday vs. A's.
When does he start next week: As soon as next Monday. He could be an advisable two-start pitcher in the right situation.
Who might replace him: The Red Sox could acquire an ace or slot a prospect like Michael Bowden or Junichi Tazawa. They could consider Justin Masterson out of the bullpen or even get Tim Wakefield (shoulder) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder) on accelerated programs off the DL. They have a slew of options long and short term.
Ian Snell, dealt to Mariners (updated July 29, 1:30 p.m. ET)
He has a 0.96 ERA in the minors and could join the Mariners rotation in August.
When does he start this week: Friday would be his normal fifth day in Triple-A, but he will likely start in Triple-A first.
When does he start next week: The Mariners have not announced when they might give him a call-up, so consider him an AL-only stashee at this point.
Who might replace him: The Pirates sent him to Triple-A to begin the process to make him go away. They don't need to replace him, although they could have just call him up and made ammends in their strained relationship.
Jon Garland, Diamondbacks
He has been on fire and can enter free agency in the offseason. The D-Backs have little use for him now.
When does he start this week: Sunday at the N.Y. Mets, although he could go on regular rest Saturday, too.
When does he start next week: Assuming he is used this weekend, he would be a one-start pitcher next week, but he could be held out until Monday of next week to be a two-start option.
Who might replace him: The D-Backs already need to replace their battered No. 5 starter and perhaps the pitcher right below here, too. They have to get young pitching back that is ready to take a turn immediately.
Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
Davis is slated to start Friday (the trade deadline) on regular rest, so he could be moved back to facilitate a deal and keep the D-Backs other starters on regular rest.
When does he start this week: Friday at N.Y. Mets.
When does he start next week: See above on Garland.
Who might replace him: See above on Garland.
Arizona Diamondbacks
| | |||
| Pitcher | TM | Own% | Start% |
| Dan Haren | ARI | 98 | 93 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 98 | 89 |
| Matt Cain | SF | 97 | 88 |
| Zack Greinke | KC | 98 | 88 |
| Johan Santana | NYM | 98 | 87 |
| Josh Johnson | FLA | 97 | 85 |
| John Lackey | ANA | 96 | 85 |
| Javier Vazquez | ATL | 97 | 81 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LA | 96 | 74 |
| Joba Chamberlain | NYY | 94 | 71 |
| J.A. Happ | PHI | 87 | 65 |
| Scott Baker | MIN | 81 | 53 |
| Zach Duke | PIT | 85 | 51 |
| Randy Wells | CHC | 73 | 50 |
| Aaron Harang | CIN | 88 | 50 |
| Scott Kazmir | TB | 92 | 47 |
| Brad Penny | BOS | 66 | 38 |
| Ervin Santana | ANA | 86 | 38 |
| Scott Feldman | TEX | 61 | 36 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | LA | 65 | 30 |
| Brett Anderson | OAK | 56 | 25 |
| Luke Hochevar | KC | 42 | 23 |
| Mat Latos | SD | 51 | 23 |
| Brad Bergesen | BAL | 47 | 22 |
| Manny Parra | MIL | 35 | 18 |
| Kenshin Kawakami | ATL | 34 | 16 |
| Jason Hammel | COL | 25 | 12 |
| Jonathon Niese | NYM | 22 | 10 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 33 | 9 |
| Mike Hampton | HOU | 16 | 6 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 8 | 6 |
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | SEA | 8 | 5 |
| Tim Stauffer | SD | 11 | 5 |
| Luke French | DET | 7 | 4 |
| Gio Gonzalez | OAK | 8 | 2 |
| David Huff | CLE | 5 | 2 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | ARI | 2 | 1 |
| Garrett Mock | WAS | 1 | 0 |
| J.D. Martin | WAS | 1 | 0 |
Week 18 two-starter(s): Haren and Petit. Haren will be a must-start and Petit high-risk, if he even remains in the rotation.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder). He hopes to return in September, so keep him stashed.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. His long-term prospects are a bit more intriguing than his recent numbers in Double-A. He is a long shot to be a September call-up at this point.
Atlanta Braves
Week 18 two-starter(s): Kawakami and Vazquez. Kawakami is a sleeper, while Vazquez is a must-start option in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow) and Jorge Campillo (shoulder, out for the season). Hudson is in the middle of his lengthy post-Tommy John rehab assignment and is targeting an Aug. 20 return to the major leagues. His last scheduled rehab start is Aug. 15, barring setbacks.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jo-Jo Reyes. The depth will come from a returning Hudson or reliever Kris Medlen, but we don't see the Braves needing rotation help. Medlen or Reyes are potential trade bait.
Baltimore Orioles
- Jeremy Guthrie
- Chris Tillman, called up to debut Wednesday, July 29
- Brad Bergesen
- David Hernandez
- Jason Berken
Week 18 two-starter(s): Tillman and Bergesen. Tillman and Bergesen could be sleepers for mixed leagues with solid outings Wednesday and Thursday.
Starters on the DL: Koji Uehara (shoulder), Rich J. Hill (shoulder, might be out for the season) and Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season). Uehara is merely hoping to return in September and it might be as a reliever. Hill might be a surgical candidate for what he called a torn labrum.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton and Brandon Erbe. Matusz is the hottest pitching prospect in the minors right now, but we don't think he is anything more than a September call-up at this point, since this is his first season as a pro.
Boston Red Sox
Week 18 two-starter(s): Penny. He could be an advisable option for all leagues with a quality start Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Tim Wakefield (back) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder). Wakefield could return in August, so track his news as the Red Sox are either seeing what they have with Buchholz or auditioning him for a trade. They are also suggesting Dice-K will be out until Sept. 1, but that really is a function of the Red Sox's pitching depth in the majors and Triple-A right now. If the Red Sox really needed a starter, they would get Dice-K revved up for a return in a matter of weeks. Keep Dice-K stashed in all leagues right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa. Bowden and Tazawa might be September call-ups as relievers, or trade bait. They are good enough to get looks down the stretch with any other team but this one. Tazawa made his Triple-A debut Tuesday night and allowed just three hits and one earned run in six strong innings.
Chicago Cubs
Week 18 two-starter(s): Wells and Hart. They are solid sleepers with good efforts Wednesday and Thursday vs. Houston.
Starters on the DL: Ted Lilly (shoulder, knee). He hopes to return in mid-August at this point. Keep him stashed.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. Jeff Samardzija and Mitch Atkins will be pitching in relief. It is telling they prefer Hart over them in the rotation right now. The signing of veteran lefty B.J. Ryan could help Sean Marshall get out of the Pitch-22, but don't count on it.
Chicago White Sox
Week 18 two-starter(s): Contreras. It was going to be Colon, but he will miss his start Wednesday with a sore elbow.
Starters on the DL: Bartolo Colon (elbow). He heads right back to the DL and is nothing more than a DL stashee in deeper AL-only formats at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda. Poreda could be stretched out in the minors now and be a candidate for the rotation come September, if he isn't trade bait.
Cincinnati Reds
Week 18 two-starter(s): Harang. He is an advisable option, barring injury or an implosion against the Padres on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Edinson Volquez (elbow) and Micah Owings (shoulder). Volquez could be a factor in Fantasy Week 18 (Aug. 3-9). Track his progress through the weekend before considering him. Owings will need a few weeks.
Starters to watch in the minors: Matt Maloney. Maloney had an ill-timed bad start with Owings going on the DL and Bailey struggling. We don't like his prospects initially if he gets a call-up.
Cleveland Indians
- Carl Pavano
- David Huff
- Aaron Laffey
- Jeremy Sowers
- TBD, they could make a call-up or stick with a four-man rotation for a few turns
Week 18 two-starter(s): Huff. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start at the L.A. Angels.
Starters on the DL: Scott Lewis (elbow), Jake Westbrook (elbow) and Anthony Reyes (elbow, out for the season). Lewis and Westbrook will try to return in mid-August, but they figure to need nearly a full month of rehab starts.
Starters to watch in the minors: Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco, Hector Rondon, Charles Lofgren, Jeanmar Gomez and Jason Knapp (7-day DL). Carmona (3-3, 2.72 ERA in minors) is a candidate to return at any time, especially now that Lee has been dealt.
Colorado Rockies
Week 18 two-starter(s): Hammel. He might be a questionable option even with a decent outing Wednesday. The Phillies matchup is tough.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Christian Friedrich and Greg Smith. Jhoulys Chacin and Franklin Morales are up in relief and are no threat to what has been a sound Rockies rotation. Friedrich is the elite prospect, posting a 1.76 ERA in six high Class A starts. He is a long shot to get a look this year.
Detroit Tigers
Week 18 two-starter(s): French and Verlander. French is a questionable option, while Verlander is likely a must-start.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety). Bonderman is getting closer to starting another rehab assignment, while Willis is still in DL purgatory.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brooks Brown, Chris Lambert and Alfredo Figaro. We figure the Tigers will be more inclined to give their DL starters a shot or acquire a starter via trade.
Florida Marlins
Week 18 two-starter(s): Johnson. He is a must-start in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Anibal Sanchez (shoulder). He has begun another rehab assignment, but his shoulder has been shaky for years, so we don't see a whole lot of value here at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andrew Miller. A bad minor league start means Badenhop will be the No. 5 starter the next time that turn comes up Saturday. Miller won't return until later in August, especially since he left Wednesday's start with an ankle sprain.
Houston Astros
Week 18 two-starter(s): Hampton. He looks like a questionable-to-risky option after getting torched by the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Norris and Felipe Paulino. Norris is an elite prospect with great Triple-A numbers and a great future. He was called up Tuesday night and could join the rotation come August after debuting in relief Wednesday. Take that flier immediately. The offensively potent Astros could make him a winner.
Kansas City Royals
Week 18 two-starter(s): Greinke and Hochevar. Greinke is a must-start, while Hochevar will be very popular on the waiver wire if he wins a fifth consecutive start Thursday at Baltimore.
Starters on the DL: Gil Meche (back). Meche is hoping to return before Fantasy Week 18 (Aug. 3-9). Track his progress through the weekend.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Davies. Davies has a 2.06 ERA through seven Triple-A starts and doesn't belong there. He is an AL-only sleeper right now.
Los Angeles Angels
- John Lackey
- Jered Weaver
- Ervin Santana
- Joe Saunders
- vacant, but Matt Palmer could came back out of long relief
Week 18 two-starter(s): Lackey. He figures to be a must-start in all leagues if he is decent Wednesday vs. Cleveland.
Starters on the DL: Dustin Moseley (elbow). He might not be healthy enough to return before the end of the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Sean O'Sullivan, Jordan Walden, Trevor Bell and Trevor Reckling. O'Sullivan threw a no-hitter Tuesday night in Triple-A, striking out seven.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Week 18 two-starter(s): Kershaw and Kuroda. Kershaw will be a must-start, while Kuroda is a nice sleeper with a quality start Thursday at St. Louis.
Starters on the DL: Eric Milton (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom and Eric Stults. James McDonald is in middle relief and Lindblom could head there, too, down the stretch. The Dodgers could acquire a starter before the trade deadline if Schmidt proves unworthy with his sub-90s stuff.
Milwaukee Brewers
Week 18 two-starter(s): Parra. He could be a sleeper for deeper leagues with a quality start Wednesday vs. Washington.
Starters on the DL: Dave Bush (shoulder). He needed to shut it down, so it will be weeks before he is ready at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: None. The Brewers are desperately trying to upgrade their rotation via trade. You have to figure they will in lieu of any potential call-up.
Minnesota Twins
- Scott Baker
- Nick Blackburn
- Francisco Liriano (elbow, out) ... Brian Duensing made a spot start Wednesday
- Glen Perkins
- Anthony Swarzak
Week 18 two-starter(s): Baker. He could be an advisable option for any format with a solid start Tuesday vs. the Chicago White Sox.
Starters on the DL: Kevin Slowey (wrist, out for the season) and Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Kevin Mulvey. Mulvey couldn't hold down a long relief role, so we cannot expect he will get another look as a starter anytime soon. The Twins might need to add a starter for Liriano before the trade deadline.
New York Mets
Week 18 two-starter(s): Santana and Niese. Santana is an advisable option, while Niese could be a sleeper for all formats with another quality start Thursday vs. Colorado.
Starters on the DL: John Maine (shoulder) and Fernando Nieve (quadriceps). Neither is close to a return and they could be held out for the rest of the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Holt and Tobi Stoner. Holt is intriguing long term, but we don't see him getting a look before September just yet.
New York Yankees
Week 18 two-starter(s): Chamberlain. He could prove to be a must-start with another quality outing Wednesday at Tampa Bay.
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder). He had a setback and is out for this season and half of next after surgery on his ailing shoulder.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa. Phil Hughes is now a setup man, Kennedy is still on the DL after surgery and Igawa will never get a chance with the Yankees again. Igawa has been decent in Triple-A, though. The Yankees could add a starter in the coming days.
Oakland Athletics
Week 18 two-starter(s): Anderson and Gonzalez. They are questionable options for AL-only leagues, but Anderson could be an advisable one if he can shut down the Red Sox again on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow) and Josh Outman (elbow, out for the season). The A's will consider a six-man rotation if Duchscherer can return later in August. He has finally begun a rehab assignment and they are hoping he can be a starter again.
Starters to watch in the minors: James J. Simmons. His Triple-A numbers aren't as good as his long-term prospects, and it certainly looks like the A's are willing to let this young starting five take its lumps until Duchscherer is back.
Philadelphia Phillies
Week 18 two-starter(s): Happ. If he doesn't get traded or reshuffled back after the Lee trade, he figures to be an advisable option if he stays on turn as a two-starter.
Starters on the DL: Pedro Martinez, Antonio Bastardo (shoulder) and Brett Myers (hip, out for the season). Martinez will get another rehab start this weekend and could arrive in August, but his status as a potential member of the starting five is in question at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Joe Savery, Kyle Drabek and Andrew Carpenter. Drabek has been the fastest riser of the bunch. He is recovered from Tommy John surgery and looking like a potential ace long-term now. They won't be arriving this season with Rodrigo Lopez moving back to the bullpen and Pedro still waiting in the wings on the DL.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Week 18 two-starter(s): Morton and Duke. Morton was solid Tuesday night in a loss to the Giants. Duke could be an advisable option in deeper formats with a strong start Wednesday at San Francisco.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). He won't be anything more than a high-risk NL-only starter option once healthy and if he gets a call to the rotation. Ignore him.
Starters to watch in the minors: Tom Gorzelanny, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. Jeff Karstens is working in long relief, but Gorzelanny is an option for the second half.
San Diego Padres
Week 18 two-starter(s): Latos and Stauffer. They could be sleepers for deeper leagues with quality starts Wednesday and Thursday at Cincinnati.
Starters on the DL: Jake Peavy (ankle), Chris R. Young (shoulder), Cha Seung Baek (elbow) and Shawn Hill (elbow, out for the season). It is still a while before we will see Peavy or Young, if we see them at all before the end of the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Cesar Carrillo and Nick Schmidt. Carrillo, a Tommy John survivor, has been moved up to Triple-A after going 8-4, 4.24 in Double-A. We could see him in the majors before the end of the season.
San Francisco Giants
Week 18 two-starter(s): Cain. He is a must-start in all leagues through thick and thin now.
Starters on the DL: Randy Johnson (shoulder) and Noah Lowry (shoulder, out for the season). Johnson has a torn rotator cuff and now might be out for the season and done for his career.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner, Timothy Alderson and Kevin Pucetas. Bumgarner (10-2 with a 1.54 ERA and .204 BAA) remains untouchable in Double-A and a potential August call-up to help a contender. His teammate Alderson hasn't been impressive in July (5.87 ERA), making him more likely to come up in relief. Pucetas (10-2, 3.26 in Triple-A) is a candidate to replace Sadowski or a traded Sanchez going forward.
Seattle Mariners
- Felix Hernandez
- Jarrod Washburn
- Ryan Rowland-Smith
- Jason M. Vargas or Garrett Olson or Ian Snell
- One of the above No. 4 candidates
Week 18 two-starter(s): Rowland-Smith. He is a questionable option but a potential sleeper for AL-only formats with a solid outing vs. Toronto and Halladay on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Erik Bedard (shoulder), Carlos Silva (shoulder) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season). Bedard will need about a month off, while Silva is in career purgatory and therefore worthless as a stashee.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brandon Morrow. Morrow could be called up for the No. 5 spot any turn now. Morrow hasn't been all that impressive in Triple-A, though.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Chris Carpenter
- Adam Wainwright
- Joel Pineiro
- Kyle Lohse
- Mitchell Boggs, but he will be skipped whenever possible
Week 18 two-starter(s): Perhaps Pineiro. The Cardinals are considering a four-man rotation, but they play only five games in Fantasy Week 18 (Aug. 3-9) and might skip their No. 5 man, giving Pineiro an advisable two-start week for Fantasy owners.
Starters on the DL: Jaime Garcia (elbow, out for the season).
Starters to watch in the minors: Boggs and P.J. Walters. The Cardinals also have Brad Thompson in long relief. Boggs is coming up to start in Todd Wellemeyer's spot Friday. He will then be skipped every time the Cardinals have a day off to keep their top four on regular rest the rest of the way.
Tampa Bay Rays
Week 18 two-starter(s): Kazmir. He hasn't been great but showed glimpses of his old self Tuesday night in a win against the Yankees. He is an advisable option.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Andy Sonnanstine and Wade Davis. They are solid depth, but they are more likely to be trade bait than arrive in the Rays' rotation at this point.
Texas Rangers
Week 18 two-starter(s): Feldman and Holland. They could be sleepers for deeper leagues with quality starts Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Starters on the DL: Brandon McCarthy (shoulder), Matt Harrison (shoulder, out for the season) and Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season). McCarthy and Harrison might not return before the end of the season at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Neftali Feliz, Michael Main and Kasey Kiker. The Rangers are more likely to acquire a starter at the trade deadline, say perhaps a Washburn, than count on more young arms.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Roy Halladay
- Ricky Romero
- Marc Rzepczynski
- Brett Cecil
- Scott Richmond (shoulder) expected to return Friday, July 31
Week 18 two-starter(s): Rzepczynski or Halladay. Halladay would likely be the two-start pitcher if he is not dealt. Otherwise, Rzepczynski will be a questionable option. The Blue Jays have three off days coming up and likely will go to a four-man rotation if they deal Halladay.
Starters on the DL: Shaun Marcum (elbow), Scott Richmond (shoulder), Bobby Ray (shoulder), Dustin McGowan (shoulder), and Jesse Litsch (elbow, out for the season). Marcum is on a rehab assignment that could position him for a mid-August return at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills and David Purcey. We figure the Blue Jays will get prospects to block these guys if they deal Halladay. They remain long-term prospects, though.
Washington Nationals
Week 18 two-starter(s): Mock and Martin. They figure to be risky options even in NL-only formats.
Starters on the DL: Jordan Zimmermann (shoulder) and Scott Olsen (shoulder, out for the season). Zimmermann is an elite prospect and will be handled with kid gloves. Don't expect him back before September, if at all this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Shairon Martis, Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler and Stephen Strasburg (still unsigned). Strasburg likely won't sign before the deadline and if he does, it is still very unlikely we see him in the majors before the end of the season. The other young arms could return, but no Nationals starter will be all that intriguing anyway.
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