By the Numbers: Hunter suddenly the hunted
By Al Melchior | Special to CBSSports.com Follow AlFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
When the Rangers called up Derek Holland early in the season, not many Fantasy owners would have been surprised to learn that a Rangers rookie would become one of the most sought-after waiver pickups by late July.
If a time-travelling Fantasy writer had informed them that the highly-pursued rookie would be Tommy Hunter, and not Holland, more than a few jaws would have probably gone slack at the news. After yielding no more than three earned runs in any of his first six starts, Hunter has become the latest must-snag pitcher and the occupant of the top spot on this week's American League Most Added player list.
While he has pitched well, a few breaks have also gone Hunter's way en route to a 3-1 record and 2.00 ERA. Hunter drew starts against two of the majors' most anemic lineups, Oakland and San Diego, in his first two games, and then he picked up another start at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. A .256 BABIP has also helped to keep Hunter's ERA and WHIP improbably low, and he probably won't continue to strand baserunners at an 85 percent clip. Monday night's performance against Detroit was Hunter's most impressive to date, but based on his minor league track record, six strikeout games will be the exception, not the rule. Good fortune has allowed the Ranger rookie to score 80 Fantasy points and counting over the has the last four weeks in which he has had a start, but a Jon Garland-like ride of ups and downs is what Hunter's owners have in store for the weeks ahead.
More guys in demand
Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Week 17 Ownership: 15 percent
Week 18 Ownership: 33 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 2nd (tied)
The Skinny: Aybar displays a shocking lack of patience, averaging fewer than 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. Longer visits to the plate correlate with more production, particularly (and obviously) when it comes to run scoring and on-base percentage. Another less obvious benefit is a higher batting average on balls in play, as six of the 20 least patient hitters have BABIPs of .276 or lower. (By comparison, the 30th percentile for BABIP among all major league regulars is .294). Clearly, Aybar hasn't read the book on the perils of aggressive hitting. Otherwise, you wouldn't be reading about him and his .317 batting average right now in this space. Of the aforementioned 20 itchy-trigger hitters, only Pablo Sandoval has a higher BABIP, and Aybar is sufficiently flyball shy to keep up his .348 rate. Also, because he seldom strikes out, Aybar could keep his batting average above .300 the rest of the way.
| Year | Team | Walk Rate | Whiff Rate | Iso Power | BABIP | RC/27 | SB |
| 2007 | L.A. Angels | 5% | 17% | 0.052 | 0.280 | 2.2 | 4 |
| 2008 | L.A. Angels | 4% | 13% | 0.107 | 0.312 | 4.4 | 7 |
| 2009 | L.A. Angels | 5% | 11% | 0.114 | 0.348 | 5.5 | 8 |
Luke Hochevar, SP, Kansas City
Week 17 Ownership: 28 percent
Week 18 Ownership: 40 percent
Rank in AL Most Added: 7th
The Skinny: Hochevar's popularity has skyrocketed since his dominating 13-strikeout performance against Texas on Saturday. While his ERA isn't showing it yet, Hochevar has been a much-improved pitcher so far this year. Both his strikeout and walk rates are moving in the right direction, his velocity is up, and he continues to maintain his flyball percentage in the low 30s. Hochevar is no one-start fluke, and his sub-4.00 ERC suggests that his ERA will continue to fall over his next several appearances.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2007 | Omaha (Triple-A) | 3.3 | 6.8 | 1.7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2008 | Kansas City | 3.3 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.307 | 4.67 |
| 2009 | Kansas City | 2.6 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.272 | 3.93 |
Other guys drawing interest
| Rank | Player | Week 17 Ownership | Week 18 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Tommy Hunter, SP, Texas | 7% | 31% | 24% |
| 2. | Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston | 62% | 80% | 18% |
| 2. | Brett Cecil, SP, Toronto | 8% | 26% | 18% |
| 5. | Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa Bay | 47% | 61% | 14% |
Guys Dropping Like Flies
John Smoltz, SP, Boston
Week 17 Ownership: 81 percent
Week 18 Ownership: 70 percent
Rank in AL Most Dropped: 2nd
The Skinny: He's 42, has spent most of the season rehabbing from shoulder surgery, and owns a nifty 7.04 ERA after six starts, but Smoltz is a long way from being done. He is not allowing batters to make any more contact than they did in any of his three previous full seasons and he is walking even fewer hitters than in recent years. Remember when current teammate Jon Lester had similarly great ratios and a similarly awful ERA back in mid-May? He has recovered nicely from the damage done by a .388 BABIP, posting a 2.06 ERA over his last 11 starts. Things eventually evened out for Lester, and they will for Smoltz, too. No major league pitcher carries a .380-plus BABIP for very long. Owners who have dropped Smoltz should try to reclaim him, and those who are thinking about it should stop thinking about it. If you really want to shed Smoltz from your roster, trade him to me. I could really use the pitching.
| Year | Team | BB/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERC |
| 2006 | Atlanta | 2.1 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 0.306 | 3.32 |
| 2007 | Atlanta | 2.1 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 0.312 | 3.07 |
| 2009 | Boston | 1.5 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 0.384 | 5.71 |
Guys wearing roster repellant
| Rank | Player | Week 17 Ownership | Week 18 Ownership | Percentage change |
| 1. | Nick Blackburn, SP, Minnesota | 83% | 70% | -13% |
| 3. | Dallas Braden, SP, Oakland | 69% | 63% | -6% |
| 3. | Scott Downs, RP, Toronto | 58% | 52% | -6% |
| 5. | Luke Scott, OF, Baltimore | 82% | 77% | -5% |
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
