Sliders: Plenty of Josh-ing around

Have you ever been around a kid who ... well, you know the type.

I don't mean just talked to one. I mean had one follow you around as you tried to do normal, everyday stuff.

Then you know how it is. The harder you try to focus on a task at hand, the more he tries to steer you away from it with a timeless refrain that goes a little something like this:

"Watch me. Watch me. Watch meeeeee. Watch me! Come on, look. Looooook. Watch me! Come ooooon ..."

And it never really ends, not until you stop and look, only to see him do something completely inane like touch a staircase with his nose.

Thanks, kid. Thanks for being a productive part of my day.

Eventually, it just becomes background noise. You can only look so often. There are just too many things he can touch with his nose.

But what if one day you did look -- not so much at his request but just in the natural course of events -- and instead of treating you to the usual feats of the mundane, he did something legitimately remarkable, like build a skyscraper.

That's Josh Willingham for you.

Sliders These guys haven't just gotten hot or cold. Their recent play has caused their Fantasy appeal to "slide" one way or another.

Josh Willingham, OF, Nationals

Granted, it takes a lot to get people's attention when you play in Washington, but Willingham made it harder on himself by faking everyone out over the years.

Just last year, he hit .345 with five home runs in April only to hit .223 with nine home runs the rest of the way. That's beyond streaky. It's insanity, and it's enough to make you tune out Willingham no matter how much noise he's making.

So when his hot streak first began in May, nobody noticed. When he hit eight home runs in June, nobody cared. When he carried an 11-game hitting streak into the All-Star break, nobody paid attention, and when he hit a grand slam Monday, nobody crowded around the television, waiting for the highlight.

You see, one grand slam just doesn't cut it -- not for a perpetual tease like Willingham. If he really wanted to turn heads, he had to do something historic, something only 12 players had done before him.

He had to hit grand slam No. 2.

Yes, with that second base-clearing bomb, everyone finally got on board with one of this season's more subtle breakouts, and it's about time. This hot streak isn't just a one-month wonder. In fact, it might not even be a streak at all.

Since the end of April, Willingham is batting .326 with 15 home runs in 193 at-bats. And he might have gotten hot sooner if the Nationals hadn't needed the better part of three months to shut down the Austin Kearns experiment once and for all.

This breakout might seem a little late for a 30-year-old, but keep in mind Willingham didn't become a legitimate major leaguer until age 27. If the average player breaks out around age 27 or 28 after beginning his career at age 23 or 24, then Willingham's progression sounds about right.

It also feels right given Willingham's peripherals throughout his minor- and major-league career. A player who walks as often as he does should be a little more useful in Fantasy -- a little more Jayson Werth than Mike Jacobs.

Does that mean the streakiness is gone for good? Doubtful. Willingham just had an 0-for-14 stretch coming out of the break. But the cold streaks have likely gotten shorter and the hot streaks longer. And even if Willingham slows down to the point he hits .260 the rest of the way, his power and on-base percentage will make him an asset in Fantasy.

If your league in any way rewards walks, you might have trouble sitting him even when he's cold.

Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers

I get it: Hamilton has talent -- crazy, other-worldly baseball talent. I watched the Home Run Derby last year. I know.

But how long in Fantasy can we bank on that talent, robotically starting him without paying a second thought to his actual performance?

I'm sorry, but when the wait exceeds the payoff, I have to put my foot down. And speaking in terms of the six-month baseball calendar, the wait has exceeded the payoff, whether he missed part of that period with injury or not. Even if Hamilton hits eight home runs tomorrow, leading into the greatest two-month stretch of offensive firepower the world has ever seen, that's two months of goodness after four months of garbage.

In other words, for all the talent Hamilton has, for all we know he can do, he's running out of time to flip the switch and actually do it. Back in May, maybe I could afford to cross my fingers and hope he wakes up tomorrow, but not now. Now, I actually have to win.

So you can keep running out Hamilton over guys like Andre Ethier, Juan L. Rivera and Ryan Ludwick if you want, but not me. I just can't take that leap of faith anymore.

Does that mean I'd cut Hamilton? Does that mean I'm calling him the worst player in Fantasy from now until the end of all eternity? No and no. I'm just saying I can't start him anymore, not until his actual performance justifies it. And if someone in my league was still willing to pay a relatively high price for him, I'd invite the discussion.

Yunel Escobar, SS, Braves

This is unchartered territory for Escobar.

Going into Monday's game, he was having his best month in terms of batting average (.369), home runs (four), RBI (19) and OPS (1.123) -- and oh yeah, he did it all in about 20 fewer at-bats than he averaged over the first three months.

A hot streak? Perhaps, but I have another explanation.

Right as the calendar flipped from June to July, the Braves lost confidence in Kelly Johnson as their everyday second baseman. They instead started Martin Prado and, given his reputation as a contact hitter, batted him second -- the spot formerly occupied by Escobar.

The move allowed Escobar to become a middle-of-the-order hitter for the first time in his major league career, and he responded, almost immediately, by hitting like a middle-of-the-order hitter, hence the increase in home runs and RBI.

Here's where the argument risks getting silly: Escobar, for lack of a better term, is a natural. You can tell by the way he plays defense and runs the bases. Naturals have a way of controlling the game instead of having it control them. They have more of a say in the matter. So I can't help but wonder if, as a leadoff man and No. 2 hitter his entire career, Escobar played the way he thought a leadoff man and No. 2 hitter should play. In other words, he didn't try so much to hit for power. But now that he's a No. 5 or 6 hitter, he wants to play like a No. 5 or 6 hitter, hitting all the home runs that go along with it.

It's kind of like Wade Boggs that one year he randomly hit 24 home runs. He didn't normally try to hit for power, but the Red Sox needed it that year, so he delivered.

OK, I completely pulled that theory out of thin air. But it sounds good, right? I like it. Let's roll with it.

In short, I think the power will stick. I consider Escobar a must-start going forward and prefer him to more proven players like Miguel Tejada and Michael Young. And when he turns 27 next year ... well, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Joe Saunders, SP, Angels

Saunders won 17 games last year, and I fumed.

I famously hated him -- well, as famously as someone of my pathetic stature can do anything.

To be fair, it's not so much that I hated him personally. That remains to be seen. I just didn't see how a pitcher as hittable as he is, with a track record as spotty as his, could possibly sustain that level of success.

Well, it took a little longer than expected, but ... ha-ha.

Actually, he started to come back down to earth in the second half last year, when he posted a 3.94 ERA in 13 starts. But nobody listens to you when you bust on a 17-game winner. Frankly, you sound like a crazy person. You might as well say aliens live in your freezer ... or Raul Ibanez will slow down in the second half.

Anyway, Saunders has a 9.39 ERA over his last six starts, which is bad news. He's obviously not that bad, but he's not as good as he looked last year either. He's the type of pitcher who'll post an ERA around 4.00 or 4.50. That's not bad, but without any strikeouts, it's not what I'd call a real Fantasy asset either.

Now, if only Jason Marquis would show his true colors.

Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Mariners

Um ... is it OK to like this guy yet?

There's some sort of stigma surrounding Gutierrez, like if you consider him anything more than a bust, you're laughably misinformed.

You know who else had that stigma? Nelson R. Cruz.

Uh-huh. Face the reality of your wicked, wicked ways.

Look, Gutierrez certainly isn't a can't-miss type of player. I wouldn't even call him my type of player. He strikes out three times as often as walks -- which isn't often, I might add. I don't dig that about him.

But I don't see how, with a performance as good as his over a period as long as six weeks, he can go unowned in one-third of all Fantasy leagues. During that time, he's hitting .369 with nine home runs over 130 at-bats. Surely he won't keep playing that well, but at age 26, in his first season as a full-time starter, a breakout makes perfect sense.

Why not take a chance on him? At the very least, you're getting a poor man's Vernon Wells.

Hanging Sliders These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

James Shields, SP, Rays

We don't have to revisit this same tired argument with Shields, do we?

So the guy hasn't won in seven starts. Horror of horrors. I guess that means he'll never win again. Yup, he's lost it. What a waste of a draft pick, a waste of a uniform and a waste of Andy Sonnanstine, who's still on call in the minors.

Sheez ... give it a rest, people. Let's not overlook the fact Shields has four quality starts during that winless stretch and happens to pitch for one of the best offensive teams in baseball. He'll turn it around.

If anything, he's a victim of circumstance. True, two of those starts -- when he allowed seven earned runs at Kansas City and five earned runs vs. New York -- were completely his fault, but he has a 3.44 ERA in the other four. He hasn't forgotten how to pitch. The Rays just haven't given him the runs he's needed.

Yes, you could point to Shields' decreasing strikeout rate and increasing WHIP as warning signs, but those only matter if you're assessing his value for next year and beyond. The only thing legitimately disappointing about him this year is his win-loss record, which as I've suggested, is strongly dependent on circumstance. Every other part of his stat line suggests he's still a must-start.

He hasn't lost anything but the confidence of his Fantasy owners, which makes him a pretty nice bargain if you need an extra arm down the stretch.

Change-ups For every correct prediction, there is an equal and opposite incorrect prediction. At times, I have to "change up" some of my own just to save face.

Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals

Yeah, Aaron Hill hit four home runs the week after I gave him a big down arrow. You want to fight about it?

Look, the guy still has issues that make him less than an elite second baseman. At the end of the year, he will rank behind Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Roberts and Ben Zobrist in standard Head-to-Head scoring. I won't change my opinion on him because he hasn't done anything to change it.

I will, however, sing a different tune on Rasmus after I projected him as one of the biggest risers of the second half in my midseason Sliders column. Fat chance now.

It's not just the Matt Holliday trade, though that certainly delivered the final blow. The Cardinals have displaced Rasmus with every one of their recent acquisitions, first moving him down in the order, away from Albert Pujols, with the acquisition Mark DeRosa, then creating the logjam in the outfield with the acquisition of Holliday.

And wouldn't you know it? Rick Ankiel, after hitting .220 most of the year, got hot right away, establishing himself as the clear frontrunner in center field.

Rasmus simply has to make up too much ground to become an everyday player. He still has a bright future, but the Cardinals don't seem interested in making him a major part of their present. I don't see why you'd bother with him in mixed leagues anymore.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com . Be sure to put Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.