By the Numbers: The Morales of the story

Comeback players and unsung heroes -- they can turn a Fantasy season from sour to sweet like no one else.

When you got "stuck" with Derrek Lee or Jason Kubel on Draft Day, you were probably thinking, "maybe this isn't going to be my year after all." Their performances, along with those of other pleasant surprises, have turned out to be critical to many a Fantasy success.

This is the first of two columns that highlight those players who have made 2009 a surprisingly good year for many owners. This time around, we are profiling eight hitters who have performed beyond just about everybody's expectations. We will dig through their statistics, looking for clues to their unforeseen success. Then we will close out By the Numbers for this season with a review of pitchers who made this a memorable Fantasy year (in a good way).

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco: He started last season as a 21 year-old in Advanced Class A and finished improbably as a regular in the Giant lineup hitting .324. Owners played it safe at the beginning of this season, choosing to distrust Sandoval's small sample of at-bats and keeping him off of active rosters in half of the leagues on CBSSports.com. Sandoval did prove owners skeptical of his contact hitting right, as his whiff rate jumped from 10 to 15 percent, but he made enormous strides elsewhere. He increased his homer and doubles rates, and also smacked scores of groundball base hits. The notably impatient Panda took more pitches and has nearly tripled his walk rate. And to think this is his first full season and he just turned 23 last month. It's doubtful that many owners will leave Sandoval off their active rosters on Week 1 next year, nor should they.

Jason Kubel went from AL-only sleeper to viable mixed-league option in 2009. (US Presswire)

Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota: Nobody has personified the 27 year-old breakout phenomenon more than Kubel has this year. He did everything -- from hitting for power to drawing walks to getting more hits on balls in play -- at least a little better than he ever had before. His across-the-board improvement catapults him from an AL-only talent to someone whom mixed leaguers can draft with confidence. Owners may doubt that Kubel truly is one of the 30 best outfielders in baseball, but this will not be Kubel's career year. A string of seasons with .300 batting averages and 25-plus home runs is very much within his reach.

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati: Votto will almost certainly finish the season with more value in 5x5 and Head-to-Head than he had last year, even though he missed nearly a month of '09 on the DL. Expectations for Votto will be sky-high in 2010, but he could confound owners anticipating a young player on a major roll. While he projects to be a 30-homer threat, another season with a .300-plus batting average is no sure thing. Votto hit more flyballs and struck out at a much higher rate this year, and those trends would normally send a batting average south. With a more realistic BABIP, Votto's batting average would be in the .280s, instead of hovering around .320. He is still a mixed-league quality first baseman, but don't be surprised if his batting average and overall Fantasy value sag next year.

Kendry Morales, 1B, L.A. Angels: Many considered Morales a washout coming into this season, but with little more than a half season's worth of major league stats to his name, it was premature to predict his demise. He had shown only moderate power in the minors, but Morales could certainly hit, as his .332 career minor league average attests. The first baseman's 30-plus home run season was unexpected, but not inexplicable. He was clearly swinging for the fences, hitting more flyballs and striking out far more often. Morales had room to sacrifice some points from his batting average, and clearly owners approve of the tradeoff. Even so, he had never hit more than 22 bombs in any season in his professional career before, so expect some dropoff in power next season.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs: It would be tempting to say that Lee turned back the clock, rediscovering a power stroke that betrayed him for the last three seasons. Truth be told, Lee was a different hitter this season than he has been at any point in his major league career. During his prime power years, from 2003 to 2005, he maintained a neutral ground ball-to-flyball ratio, but a large proportion of his flies were of the big variety. With an 0.78 GB/FB ratio, Lee became a distinctly flyball-prone hitter this year. It's nice to see that Lee's comeback effort is supported by his peripherals, but the change to his batting profile is extreme to the point of looking aberrant. The improvement does not appear to be sustainable, especially for a 34 year-old.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, Oakland: Players looking to recapture their past glory may want to borrow Kennedy's time machine. At his current rate, the second baseman will finish the year with his highest OPS since 2002. If nothing else, Kennedy is relevant again in Fantasy for the first time in four years, even if he only matters to owners in AL-only leagues. Though this could be only the third time in his career that he finishes with a batting average over .290, there is no reason why he can't hit as well next season. Kennedy does not strike out much, has always been one of baseball's best line drive hitters, and doesn't hit many flies. That last trend makes it hard to understand how he has banged 11 home runs in '09, and the odds seem very long on him reaching double digits again. Ultimately, the modest dropoff in power won't hurt Kennedy's value. As long as he gets playing time, hits for average and steals around 20 bases -- all things that could easily happen again in 2010 -- he will continue to be a useful contributor to an AL-only roster.

Felipe Lopez, 2B, Milwaukee: Lopez just may be one of Fantasy's most chameleon-like players. He first gained Fantasy prominence as a home run hitter, but when his power deserted him, he became a stolen base threat. Lopez is no longer an effective base stealer, but now he is giving hitting for average a try. Barring an 0-fer in Week 26, he will finish 2009 with a batting average above .300 for the first time in his career. The secret to Lopez' latest makeover has been a massive reduction in an already-low flyball rate, which has been instrumental in elevating his BABIP to .363. It seems unlikely that Lopez will post flyball or BABIP rates this extreme again, and in order to have Fantasy value, he needs to keep his batting average well over .300. 2010 may be the season when we find out that Lopez has emptied his bag of tricks.

Kurt Suzuki, C, Oakland: When you think quality Fantasy catching, you think of the 3 Ms -- Mauer, Martinez and McCann, yet Suzuki has quietly "sidled" up alongside McCann. The A's backstop ranks among the top four catchers in both 5x5 and H2H value. His emergence into the catching elite can be traced to three factors: playing nearly everyday, more than doubling his home run output from last year, and being one of only four catchers who has stolen more than five bases. We can expect Suzuki to get regular playing time and the occasional stolen base in '10, but his home run power looks suspect. Over his two full seasons as a starter, he has become increasingly impatient at the plate and has maintained a mid-30s flyball percentage. Unless he is the next Vladimir Guerrero or Pablo Sandoval, these are not numbers that portend a long-term power trend. McCann should have a much easier time ditching his "sidler" than Elaine Benes did.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.