By the Numbers: Well armed for 2010?

In this final frame of this season's By the Numbers, we're coming strong with the pitchers who made you proudest to play Fantasy in '09. Did you have the foresight to take Adam Wainwright in the 10th round in your mixed league? Snag Edwin Jackson in the 20th? Pick up Joel Pineiro off waivers? Even if you don't win your league, go ahead and crack open a celebratory Yoo-Hoo. You deserve it.

If you acquired any of the pitchers featured here, that is one break that went your way this year, since each returned far more value than expected. They won't come as cheap in 2010, but that doesn't mean they aren't worth drafting or protecting. A look at the numbers that lie beneath the Fantasy stats will help us to separate the real deals from the average Joes.

Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis: The Cards' co-ace qualifies as this year's prototype for the 27 year-old breakout from the pitching side. Fueling his ascent into the Cy Young discussion is a K/9 rate that escalated from 6.2 to 8.1. Wainwright didn't get any more mileage out of his fastball, but according to the Fangraphs website, he relied much more heavily on his curveball this season. It proved to be a good strategy, as his curveball was his most effective pitch for preventing runs, as it had been in each of his two prior seasons. In many ways -- from skill ratios to repertoire to Fantasy value -- Wainright has a lot more in common with Chris Carpenter than Cy Young talk and the redbird on his jersey.

Joel Pineiro, SP, St. Louis: Wainwright and Carpenter are not the only Cards' hurlers to have extraordinary seasons. Not only has Pineiro distinguished himself with 15 wins and a low ERA and WHIP, but he owns the most extreme set of stats in pitcherdom. He has the lowest flyball rate, lowest walk rate and fourth-lowest strikeout rate among qualifying major league starters and the highest ground ball rate by a large margin. Players who dabble in such extremes are strong bets to regress to the norm, and if you don't believe me, and I have two words of warning for next year's Pineiro owners: Carlos Silva. The erstwhile Twin could have been a Fantasy staple, instead of a one-year wonder, if only he could have put together a string of seasons with fewer than 10 walks. Silva's streak of such seasons ended at one, with his nine-walk campaign in 2005. Asking for an encore was too much, just as it is unrealistic to expect Pineiro to post another 2.5 ground out-to-air out (GO/AO) ratio.

Was Scott Feldman's 2009 season a fluke or a sign of future Fantasy reliability? (US Presswire)

Scott Feldman, SP, Texas: The Hawaii native may seem like one of this year's biggest surprises, but we've actually seen this act before. Once upon a time, Paul Maholm was an ineffective pitcher with a mediocre fastball. His tendency to pitch to contact was compounded by a tendency to give up the long ball, but then he figured out how to keep a larger share of flies from leaving the park, just as he had done in the minors. Ditto for Feldman, who has yielded five fewer homers in 28 2/3 more innings this year as compared to last. He is certainly better than the pitcher who struggled through his first season as a starter in '08, but look for him to return to the pack next year. Even at his worm-burning best, Feldman cannot hold batters to a .245 batting average over the long term. He does not strike out enough hitters, and he won't repeat the .270 BABIP that has helped him to nail down many of his 17 wins this year.

J.A. Happ, SP, Philadelphia: For someone who lost the preseason fifth starter battle to Chan Ho Park, it's fair to say that Happ delivered much more to the Phillies than they expected. Even though he dominated Triple-A hitters as a Lehigh Valley Iron Pig, few Fantasy owners saw Happ as more than a swingman until midseason. His Fantasy stats say "potential elite pitcher," but his peripherals tell us that he belongs in NL-only and deep mixed leagues. Between his .264 BABIP and 82 percent left-on-base rate, you should have a pretty good idea that the peripherals are telling the more accurate story. Happ should have a nice career as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but you may never have a better time to trade him in keeper leagues than now.

Edwin Jackson, SP, Detroit: Jackson has tailed off after a red-hot first half, but his full season stats are still among the best in Fantasy. His numbers might not be as dazzling as they were at the All-Star Break, they are much more trustworthy. Not only do we have an additional 87 1/3 innings worth of data to consider, but an upward adjustment to his BABIP rate has put the clothes back on the Emperor. Jackson's 3.59 ERC places him among the 30 most effective starting pitchers in the majors, right alongside Cliff Lee, Scott Baker, Wandy Rodriguez and Jon Lester. Being in this sort of company shows how far Jackson has come this year. Owners don't need to be squeamish about drafting him as a No. 2 SP in a 12-team mixed league.

Ted Lilly, SP, Chicago Cubs: Congratulations, Ted Lilly, on your career year. There is nothing suspicious or fluky about his stats, but walk, home run and left on base rates that were a touch better than his career bests were good enough to propel his Fantasy value to a new level. Lilly has been steady and predictable over the last three seasons, so he can linger in this neighborhood for at least another season or two. Still, it's doubtful that he will be able to top a 3.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Kevin Correia, SP, San Diego: Flyball-prone and control-challenged. These were the adjectives I used to describe Correia in a midseason column. So how is it that he has managed to keep his ERA and WHIP well below league average? No smoke and mirrors here. Correia simply moderated his GO/AO ratio and found his control. Those tempted to give credit to Petco Park should take a look at the home/away splits for his skill indicators; they are much better for his road starts. The only question mark is whether Correia can sustain these improvements beyond this season. He has pitched this well just once before -- in 2006, when he was a reliever. Even Correia's minor league numbers were undistinguished. Perhaps he's a late bloomer, but I wouldn't bet on him repeating this performance.

Michael Wuertz, RP, Oakland: Yes, Wuertz is a middle reliever, but he has been the most valuable middle reliever in Fantasy and is on an active roster in 14 percent of the leagues on this site. That is not too shabby for someone who never compiled a WHIP below 1.27 before. Everything fell into place for Wuertz this year, with a soaring strikeout rate (11.7 K/9) and low line drive percentage (15 percent) collaborating to keep his opponents' batting average below .200. Meanwhile, a career-best 2.7 BB/9 has further bolstered Wuertz' WHIP. He will continue to be a reliable source of strikeouts, but as with Correia, it's hard to put too much stock in stats that are so much better than his typical fare.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.