By the Numbers: Looking for relief in 2010

We love to complain about our closers, but that is only because we hold them to such high standards.

Even great hitters can fail to reach base in three-fifths of their plate appearances and the best pitchers in baseball can be counted on to give up three or more runs in a start with some regularity. But we expect closers to be just about perfect, because often enough, they live up to that expectation, and several of them do it year after year. True ninth-inning guys are rare, which is why, once a team finds its Rivera, Nathan, or even Francisco Cordero, they tend to keep him around in that role for a long time.

Maybe that's why it seems more than a little strange when an unfamiliar name pops up in the boxscores with that "Sv" next to his name.

At the start of the '09 season, Andrew Bailey was owned in less than one percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com and a relative unknown outside of the Bay Area. He finished the year with 26 saves and one of the most valuable stat lines among Fantasy relievers. Owners who squandered a draft pick or auction dollars on Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood or Matt Capps must have wished that they saw Bailey's breakout coming, but few did. Bailey is a known quantity now, and one who will no longer come cheap, but there are still plenty of legitimate sleepers for next year.

Sometimes the emergence of a successful closer is a surprise to just about everyone. With Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler heading up Oakland's bullpen depth chart back in the spring, Bailey was far from owners' minds on Draft Day, and in any event, his flawed Double-A numbers (4.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) didn't scream "future closer." Similarly, David Aardsma looked like anything but a budding Fantasy star going into last spring, even though the Mariners' closer situation was wide open.

For every Bailey or Aardsma, there's a J.P. Howell or a Juan Gutierrez who quietly posted closer-like skill indicators while others got the opportunity to close. When their chances to earn saves arrived, they proved to be just as valuable as many of the more established -- and popular -- closers. Only the luckiest owners will find the next Bailey, but you can still find some of the next wave of Fantasy relievers by identifying the best of today's major league set-up men and minor league closers. Some of these emerging closers, like Matt Thornton and Daniel Bard, are hardly under the radar, but there are plenty of others who have largely escaped the attention of Fantasy owners.

Shawn Kelley might be earning a lot of saves in 2010 if David Aardsma struggles. (US Presswire)

To find these undervalued relievers, just look for those pitchers who have racked up close to a whiff per inning while compiling a K/BB ratio of 3.0 or greater. Minor leaguers should be well beyond these minimum thresholds and still be a few years away from their late-20s peak. A consistently low flyball rate doesn't hurt either.

Here are six relievers who finished the 2009 season in the major leagues who have yet to be handed the keys to the closer's role, yet bear a close statistical resemblance to several incumbent closers. Not all will necessarily have an opportunity to compete for a closer's job come spring training, but each should be ready if injuries or a change of scenery opens the door for them.

Brandon League, Toronto: League's 4.58 ERA and 1.25 WHIP hardly made him look like the next coming of Jonathan Papelbon, and yet he had a higher K/BB ratio than the star closer. With a K-rate just above one per inning, it appears that League deserved better this year, and a 3.85 ERC and .327 BABIP confirm his bad luck. Not only did he demonstrate excellent command this season, but going back to last year, he has posted an ultra-low 23 percent flyball rate over 107 2/3 innings. Jason Frasor and Scott Downs are worthy competitors, but with this profile, League should hold his own in the Blue Jays' closer battle for 2010.

Shawn Kelley, Seattle: A year ago, I tabbed Kelley as a potential closer for the M's, even though he had yet to pitch 50 innings above Advanced Class A. His ability to strike batters out translated well to the major leagues during his first season in Seattle. With the emergence of Aardsma as the closer, Kelley never did move beyond a middle relief role, and his newfound flyball tendencies didn't help matters. Though he didn't allow many baserunners, the 25 year-old's 47 percent flyball rate contributed to a ghastly 1.8 HR/9 ratio and a 4.50 ERA.

Kelley did a better job of keeping the ball on the ground in the minors, and at the very least, he should be able to lower his home run rate at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Aardsma's '09 season went from fluky to freaky, as he somehow managed to yield only four home runs all season, despite a 50 percent flyball rate. Keep an eye on both Aardsma and Kelley next year. Despite his problems with the long ball, Kelley may still have the most reliable arm in the M's bullpen.

Matt Daley, Colorado: Daley is the epitome of the under-the-radar reliever. Old for a rookie, the 27 year-old Rockie struggled in his first tour of Triple-A, but earned a promotion after blazing his way through a brief return trip to Colorado Springs early in '09. Daley never looked back, striking out 55 batters in 51 innings, and putting together a tidy 1.20 WHIP. The lanky righty gives up more flyballs than you would like to see from someone who spends significant time at Coors Field, and Huston Street hasn't done anything to put his job in danger (his performance in the elimination game of the NLDS notwithstanding). Still, relievers who put up the kinds of stats like Daley tend to find a way to the closer's role sooner or later.

Luke Gregerson, San Diego: It's fortunate for the Cardinals that Ryan Franklin stepped his game up this year. Otherwise, the trade that netted Khalil Greene for Gregerson and Mark Worrell would have had the Cardinals' faithful kicking themselves all year long. At the time of the deal, Gregerson had just completed a season of making life difficult for Texas League batters. He skipped over Triple-A, moved into a depleted Padres' bullpen, and actually struck out big league batters at a higher rate than he did in Double-A. Add in Gregerson's steady record of high ground ball rates, and you have a surefire closer in the making. The only question is when he will get his opportunity.

Sammy Gervacio, Houston: His head-turning 21 inning late-season tryout was no fluke. The side-arming Gervacio continued the whiff-a-thon that he kept going throughout his four-year minor league career. His 10.7 K/9 rate is for real, though it would be unrealistic to expect him to generate a 3-to-1 ground out-to-air out ratio again. Even with the occasional dinger, Gervacio has the goods to be a top closer. With Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins eligible for free agency, this rookie stands the best chance of anyone in this group to start '10 as a full-time closer.

Dan Runzler, San Francisco: With Brian Wilson firmly entrenched at the back end of the Giants' bullpen, there won't likely be any need for Runzler to save games in 2010. Clearly, though, the Giants think a lot of the lefty, promoting him step-by-step from Class A all the way to the majors during the '09 season. He hasn't really been tested above Advanced Class A, pitching just 20 combined innings in Double-A and above, but regardless of the level, he has struck out batters at a furious pace. In addition to fanning 94 batters in 67 2/3 innings at his various stops, he limited batters to a sub-.200 average at each level, save for his two innings at Triple-A. Whether he closes or not, he is a reliever to watch next season.

Though there were no obvious signs that Andrew Bailey would be a successful closer, his instant path to Fantasy stardom is hardly unprecedented. There are typically one or two pitchers each year who make the jump from being a minor league closer to a big league closer. Here are a couple of young relievers who spent all or most of 2009 blowing away Double-A hitters, in much the same way that Kelley, Gregerson and Gervacio did in '08.

Eduardo Sanchez, St. Louis: Sanchez' rise takes some of the sting out of the Gregerson trade for Cardinals' fans. The 5'11" Venezuelan excelled as the closer at Double-A Springfield, just as Gregerson had done for part of last season. Between his command of his upper-90s fastball, ability to generate ground ball outs and domination of Double-A batters at age 20, there is much to get excited about with Sanchez, looking ahead to 2010 and beyond.

Anthony Slama, Minnesota: As a 25 year-old with a low-90s fastball who is blocked by Joe Nathan, Slama doesn't have Sanchez' potential, but he can punch out batters nonetheless. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he rung up 112 hitters in 81 innings for a ratio that actually pales in comparison to what he achieved in the lower minors. As he has climbed the Twins' organizational ladder, walks have become an increasingly bigger problem, and he has not been especially prone to ground balls. At least in the short term, Slama is a long shot to contribute in Fantasy, but anyone with his ability to generate strikeouts is worth monitoring.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.