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Eric Mack

Highlighting top Padres prospects for '10

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


We break down the top five prospects for each organization for 2010, taking into consideration: games, at-bats, innings and major-league service time. We expect these players to have rookie status remaining heading into next year.

According to MLB rules: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)."

Note: Statistics are those at each stop in the minors this season and age represents how old they will be on opening day 2010.

San Diego Padres

The Padres put their rebuilding program into full go last season, dealing off Jake Peavy and a slew of serviceable relievers. They have a solid farm system with some high-ceiling guys long term, but it won't be enough to make them anything more than deep, deep sleepers in an improving NL West. After ushering a large haul of rookies to the major leagues in 2009, the Padres figure to allow their lower-level prospects far more time to grow -- with the possible exception of the pitchers.

1. Jaff Decker, OF, 20

One of the best high school bats of the 2008 draft did not disappoint in his first pro season in low Class A, hitting .299 with 16 homers, 84 RBI, 78 runs, 10 steals, a .442 on-base percentage and .514 slugging percentage. His pure hitting talent makes him a must-watch prospect in 2010, but the fact he is still so young and raw likely will keep him down on the farm for a full season. It should be fun to track his numbers in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, though.

2. Donavan Tate, OF, 19

In many other years, Tate would have been a candidate to go No. 1 overall in last June's First-Year Player Draft. Instead, he played third fiddle to Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley. Tate is a long-term project as a high school draftee, but he could eventually be a big-time Fantasy star. You just will have to wait years before he is a real candidate to be considered in non-keeper leagues.

3. Aaron Poreda, SP, 23

The White Sox didn't quite give up on Poreda, dealing him in a blockbuster package for Jake Peavy, but they weren't impressed with him enough to give him a chance last year as a starter. His 2.38 ERA and .206 batting-average against in 11 Double-A starts likely should have earned him a better look. They likely knew something about his command, or lackthereof. When he became a Padres farmhand, Poreda took a walk on the wild side, issuing 37 free passes in 32 2/3 Triple-A innings. That led to his 7.16 ERA and kept him from getting a start down the stretch for the pitching-needy Padres. Poreda will get a chance to earn a rotation spot out of spring training, but like so many left-handers, he might be a bit erratic in his first go-around as a big league starter. The talk of him becoming a late-inning reliever likely dies with the deal to San Diego, where pitching in a big ballpark should help him develop better than with the White Sox. Consider him a late-round sleeper in deeper leagues on Draft Day.

4. James Darnell, 3B, 23

The South Carolina product showed in his first full pro season he should not have lasted until the second round of the 2008 draft. He combined to go .311-20-81-80-8 (.424-.536) in 457 at-bats between low and high Class A. He also added an eye-popping 35 doubles. Darnell likely should open the 2010 season in Double-A, but we wouldn't be surprised to see him finish the year in the major leagues. Perhaps the only thing holding him back from being an elite long-term keeper prospect is the pitcher's park he would have to grow in with the Padres in Petco.

5. Logan Forsythe, 3B, 23

It will be interested to see what direction the Padres go on the hot corner in the future, having Kevin Kouzmanoff there now, Chase Headley available at third or left and Darnell and Forsythe working their way to the majors in 2010. While Darnell was picked behind him in 2008, we don't like Forsythe's power projection as much. He went .300-11-61-83-11 (.429-.440) in 480 at-bats between high Class A and Double-A last season and could be a Mark Teahen-like hitter, one that might struggle to produce 20 homers annually. Forsythe is far more patient than Teahen, though, drawing 102 walks. Consider him a keeper prospect worth stashing, but Darnell is a better way to go if you want a higher ceiling.

Best of the rest: Wynn Pelzer, SP; Cory Luebke, SP; Chad Huffman, OF; Cesar Carrillo, SP; Will Inman, SP; Kellen Kulbacki, OF; Matt Antonelli, 2B; Cedric Hunter, OF; Craig Italiano, SP; Corey Kluber, SP; Ryan Webb, RP; Eulogio De La Cruz, RP; Andrew Bovich, RP; Eric Sogard, DH; Lance Zawadzki, SS; Jeremy Hefner, SP; Dexter Carter, SP; Edinson Rincon, 3B; Jerry Sullivan, SP; Nick Schmidt, SP; Everett Williams, OF; Keyvius Sampson, SP; Jason Hagerty, C; Rymer Liriano, OF; Adys Portillo, SP; Jonathan Galves, SS; Allan Dykstra, 1B; Luis Durango, OF; Cole Figueroa, SS; Blake Tekotte, OF; Beamer Weems, SS; Simon Castro, SP; Ernesto Frieri, RP; Steve Garrison, SP; Drew Cumberland, SS; Drew Miller, SP; Ivan Nova, SP; and Mitch Canham, C.

2009 rookies to exhaust eligibility: Matt Latos, SP; Kyle Blanks, 1B; Will Venable, OF; Everth Cabrera, SS; Clayton Richard, SP; Wade LeBlanc, SD; Josh Geer, SP; Luke Gregerson, SD; Greg Burke, RP; Luis Perdomo, RP; Adam Russell, RP; and Drew Macias, OF.

Last year's top five here: Antonelli, 2B; Blanks, 1B; Pelzer, SP; Inman, SP; and Venable, OF.

You can e-mail Emack your prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Ryan Kalish
Kalish not cleared to swing bat
Ryan Kalish, CF, BOS
4:41 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish has arrived at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla., and is working out. However, he hasn't been cleared to swing a bat as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Analysis: Kalish isn't expected to join the MLB roster until later this summer, so this news isn't shocking. Kalish is still holding out hope to be ready by opening day, but he isn't counting on it. It's disappointing he has to deal with this injury since the Red Sox have an opening in right field, which Kalish would be competing for had he avoided surgery. Kalish could very well emerge as an everyday player once he is healthy, but consider Kalish more of a draft-and-stash option in AL-only formats on Draft Day.

Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzo trims down for 2012?
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS
4:36 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox 1B Adrian Gonzalez showed up to spring training on Monday, even though position players didn't have to report until Feb. 23. The paper notes that Gonzalez appears trimmer than he was at the end of the 2011 season.
Analysis: Perhaps Gonzalez wanted to get a bit more in shape for the 2012 season, but it's not like he had poor conditioning in 2011. He did pretty well in his first season with Boston, batting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBI. He is only 29 years old and still has plenty of quality years left. Gonzalez remains an early-round Fantasy pick in all formats.

Daniel Bard
Bard throws bullpen session
Daniel Bard, RP, BOS
4:26 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox pitcher Daniel Bard, who is making the transition from reliever to starter, threw a bullpen session Monday morning at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla. Bard said it was the fifth or sixth time he has thrown from a mound this winter.
Analysis: While Bard was pretty impressive as a reliever in the majors, starting will be a whole new challenge. He will be starting for the first time since his first pro season in the minors in 2007, when he went 3-7 with a 7.08 ERA in 22 starts at Class A. His two biggest challenges are building up endurance and developing his changeup as a third pitch. Clearly, Bard's work in the majors and pitching for the Red Sox will draw Fantasy interest, but Fantasy owners can't oversell him on Draft Day. He has to be considered a late-round option because this is a big transition.

Grady Sizemore
GM hopes Sizemore plays 120 games
Grady Sizemore, CF, CLE
4:20 PM
News: The Plain Dealer reports Indians GM Chris Antonetti said he would like to see OF Grady Sizemore play 100-120 games in 2012. Antonetti added that the Indians took a gamble on bringing Sizemore back with a one-year deal, but he said the veteran outfielder showed at times in 2011 that he can still be an exceptional offensive player.
Analysis: Sizemore's career has gone from promising to disappointing because of knee problems. But the Indians are willing to give it one more try and see if Sizemore can make it through the 2012 season. It seems, however, the team is open to sitting him at times to help keep him healthy. Fantasy owners need to keep that in mind on Draft Day. Consider Sizemore at best a late-round, injury-risk Fantasy sleeper.

Esmerling Vasquez
Vasquez outrighted to minors
Esmerling Vasquez, RP, MIN
4:09 PM
News: The Twins announced RP Esmerling Vasquez cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. He will be a non-roster invitee to spring training.
Analysis: Vasquez has a career 4.66 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He has been a mediocre middle reliever and can be ignored in all Fantasy formats.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.

 
 
 
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