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Eric Mack

Highlighting top Brewers prospects for '10

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


We break down the top five prospects for each organization for 2010, taking into consideration: games, at-bats, innings and major-league service time. We expect these players to have rookie status remaining heading into next year.

According to MLB rules: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)."

Note: Statistics are those at each stop in the minors this season and age represents how old they will be on opening day 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers

It was a rebuilding year for the Brewers, who finally made the playoffs in 2008, only to fall back to mediocrity in '09. The thing is, this team is anything but mediocre if they had just acquired some pitching. Perhaps it comes from the farm in 2010?

1. Alcides Escobar, SS, 23

Escobar barely qualifies as a rookie having not surpassed the service time or at-bats after his August call-up to replace J.J. Hardy. Hardy fell out of favor due to inconsistency and the Brewers appear committed to Escobar long term. He hit .304 with a homer, 11 RBI, 20 runs, four steals, a .333 batting-average against and a .368 slugging percentage with the Brewers. He won't hit for power, but he can slap his way on base and be a 30-40 steal candidate in his first full season after going .298-4-34-76-42, .353-.409 in 430 at-bats in his first Triple-A campaign. His steals will be useful relative to his late-round draft slot and at a thin shortstop position on Draft Day. Long-term, he could develop some Jose B. Reyes-like power.

2. Mark Rogers, SP, 24

We have waited years for Rogers to get healthy and make good on his immense potential. It finally came in 22 starts in high Class A last year. Granted, it was a pitcher-friendly league and ballpark, but his 1.67 ERA, .201 batting-average against and 67 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings are eye-popping for an injury-prone former elite pitching prospect. Rogers will be stretched out cautiously after his years of injury woes and coming off shoulder surgery, so don't expect more than 125 innings out of him combined between the minors and perhaps the majors by the end of the season. He still might become that future front-line starter he was once billed to be.

3. Brett Lawrie, 2B, 20

Lawrie, the team's first-round pick in 2008 out of a Canadian high school made quite a splash in his first season as a pro, going a combined .274-13-65-54-19 (.340-.436) in 424 at-bats between low Class A and Double-A. He is a gifted hitter who feels most comfortable at second base, where his pop should play nicely in Fantasy in a few years. We expect (hope?) Rickie Weeks to be healthier and have a breakthrough this season, so Lawrie will get a long ride in Double-A this season and be a popular name on prospect lists for 2011.

4. Amaury Rivas, SP, 24

The Brewers were just a few starters from being a contender last season. If only they have a few more arms like Rivas' to turn to. They might turn to him by June 1 in 2010, which makes him a top target in deeper NL-only and long-term keeper leagues in the latter rounds on Draft Day. Unlike Rogers and the starting pitcher prospect below, Rivas put together a full season that could make him an impact pitcher for the Brewers and Fantasy owners in the second half. He went 13-7 with a 2.98 ERA, .220 BAA and 123 strikeouts in 133 High Class A innings last season. He will start in Double-A out of spring training, barring something unforeseen, and could move quickly from there if he stays dominant.

5. Jeremy Jeffress, SP, 22

Jeffress tested positive for a "drug of abuse" for a third time and received a 100-game suspension under Minor League Baseball's Joint Drug Treatment and Prevention Program on June 29, 2009. That kept him from being a potential candidate to help the pitching-needy Brewers last season and now puts some doubt about whether his previous results are tainted by some substance he took. There were reports the drug has continued to be marijuana, though. Consider Jeffress a potential future ace in keeper leagues, but his chances of making it up to Milwaukee before June 1 are slim.

Best of the rest: Caleb Gindl, OF; Jonathan Lucroy, C; Angel Salome, C; Cutter Dykstra, OF; Taylor Green, 3B; Tim Dillard, SP; Josh J. Butler, SP; Jake Odorizzi, SP; Cody Scarpetta, SP; Wily Peralta, SP; Eric Arnett, SP; Zach Braddock, RP; Lorenzo Cain, OF; Kentrail Davis, OF; Kyle Heckathorn, SP; Max Walla, OF; Alex Periard, SP; Lee Haydel, OF; Nick A. Green, SP; Brent Brewer, SS; R.J. Seidel, RP; Setch Lintz, SP; Omar Aguilar, SP; Efrain Nieves, SP; Evan Frederickson, SP; Eric Farris, 2B; Cody Adams, SP; Cameron Garfield, C; Josh Prince, SS; Brooks Hall, SP; Nick Bucci, SP; Logan Schafer, OF; Joe Koshansky, OF; Evan Anundsen, RP; and Maverick Lasker, SP.

2009 rookies to exhaust eligibility: Casey McGeheee, 2B/3B; Mat Gamel, 3B; Chris Narveson, RP; and Chris Smith, RP.

Last year's top five here: Gamel, 3B; Salome, C; Jeffress, SP; Escobar, SS; and Green, 3B.

You can e-mail Emack your prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K throwing off mound
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
11:52 AM
News: The Boston Globe reports while Red Sox pitchers and catchers don't officially have to report until Sunday, some players have arrived early, including SP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The paper noted that Matsuzaka, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in June, was throwing off a mound with manager Bobby Valentine watching.
Analysis: Clearly, the fact Dice-K is already throwing off a mound is good news. However, we still have to temper expectations. It usually takes pitchers 12-18 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, so we aren't expecting to see Dice-K in a major-league game until mid-summer. We will continue to update his progress as the news warrants, but Dice-K is merely a draft-and-stash option in the deepest of Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

David Ortiz
Ortiz settles before hearing
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
11:11 AM
News: DH David Ortiz and the Red Sox came to terms on a one-year contract hours before the two sides were set to go to an arbitration hearing. Ortiz signed a one-year, $14.575 million contract.
Analysis: Now that Ortiz has this business out of the way he can get down to focusing on the baseball aspect of things. Ortiz hit .309 with 29 homers and 96 RBI in 2011. He is DH-eligible only in Fantasy, which hurts his appeal a bit. But Ortiz remains a viable early-to-mid-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day.

Chris Snyder
Snyder fully recovered from surgery
Chris Snyder, C, HOU
12:27 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Astros catcher Chris Snyder said he is fully recovered from the back surgery he had in June.
Analysis: A lot of folks feel Snyder will make the Astros roster out of camp, but he still needs to prove he is past his back problem, which robbed him of most of the 2011 season with Pittsburgh. Manager Brad Mills has already said Jason Castro is the team's starting catcher, but he is recovering from foot surgery and isn't expected to be ready for spring games until the second week of the exhibition schedule. In the meantime, Snyder will be battling Humberto Quintero for the backup role. Snyder has decent pop for a catcher, but his strength is defense. Snyder is more of an NL-only Fantasy option.

Ian Desmond
Nats convinced Desmond will re-emerge
Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
11:41 AM
News: CSN Washington reports the Nationals are convinced shortstop Ian Desmond is in for a bounce-back season in 2012 because of two trends they spotted in 2011. The first is that Desmond made significant strides at the plate in the second half of last season. After hitting .223 with a .264 OBP and .308 slugging percentage before the All-Star break, Desmond hit .289 with a .338 OBP and .417 slugging percentage down the stretch. He really thrived when manager Davey Johnson made him the leadoff hitter, which is a position he is expected to keep heading into the spring. The second trend is that Desmond's defense improved as the season progressed. He committed seven errors in his first 20 games and just 16 over his final 134.
Analysis: A lot of folks were excited about Desmond's 2011 outlook after he played well in his first two MLB stints in 2009 and 2010. Unfortunately, Desmond took a step back last year and will plummet down Fantasy draft boards because of it. Clearly, there is potential with Desmond. But don't reach for him on Draft Day. Let him fall to the late rounds in mixed leagues and hope that you grab a bounce-back candidate.

Phil Hughes
Hughes appears ready to compete
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY
11:26 AM
News: Newsday reports Yankees SP Phil Hughes, who looks noticeably slimmer and more muscular, said he weighs about 240 pounds. He added that in the offseason he changed his "body composition."
Analysis: The early word from Yankees camp is that Hughes is in shape and ready to compete for a spot in the rotation. Although, he is on the outside looking in if the Yankees don't trade A.J. Burnett. Though, if Hughes proves to be more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen, then the Yankees might have to reconsider his role in 2012. Let's see how Hughes does this spring training before making a final evaluation about his 2012 outlook, but clearly him being in shape is a good start. Hughes could be a viable Fantasy option again if he returns to the 18-8 pitcher he was in 2010.

Jon Garland
Garland gets shot with Indians
Jon Garland, SP, LAD
10:37 AM
News: The Indians signed SP Jon Garland to a minor-league deal on Monday. Garland, who last pitched for the Dodgers, was limited to only nine starts last season before having arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in June.
Analysis: Garland will most likely compete with Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Indians rotation, but he's a hittable pitcher who now may be working with less than his best stuff coming off shoulder surgery. Even if he's able to win a rotation spot, he won't be worth drafting outside of deeper AL-only leagues.

A.J. Burnett
Yanks, Pirates still talking Burnett
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/12/2012
News: The New York Daily News reports the Yankees and Pirates continued to talk Sunday about completing a trade for A.J. Burnett, but a baseball source said the sides are still "a good ways away" from agreeing on the final terms. The source added the Pirates are willing to pay $10 million of the remaining $33 million Burnett is owed over the next two seasons, but Pittsburgh has offered "two borderline prospects" in return. The Yankees could be willing to pay more of Burnett's remaining contract if they receive a top-tier prospect from Pittsburgh. A person familiar with the Yankees' thinking believes there is enough common ground that a deal could be completed in the coming days. However, ESPN.com reports their source said the Yankees aren't desperate to make a trade and the team would go to spring training with Burnett if a deal isn't completed.
Analysis: Leaving the Yankees usually has a negative impact on a player's Fantasy value, but in Burnett's case it might be the opposite, especially if he moves to the NL. He has struggled to handle the pressure of pitching in New York and a fresh start could be what he needs. Burnett had some of his best years in the majors pitching in the NL. Still, Burnett would be nothing more than a risky late-round Fantasy pick in mixed leagues.

Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
2/12/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Hunter Pence
Pence likely to hit cleanup
Hunter Pence, RF, PHI
2/12/2012
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has to find a cleanup hitter with Ryan Howard expected to miss the beginning of the season recovering from an Achilles injury, and he said his choice going into spring training is Hunter Pence.
Analysis: Pence either hit right in front of or right behind Howard after his acquisition from Houston last season and thrived in the Phillies lineup. He will miss Howard's lineup protection, but might only have to play a month without Howard. In the meantime, Pence should get plenty of RBI chances batting cleanup, and he will still have plenty of lineup protection without Howard. Look to Pence in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Jason Vargas
Vargas expected to pitch in A's series
Jason Vargas, SP, SEA
2/12/2012
News: Mariners manager Eric Wedge hinted Sunday that ace Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas are the leading candidates to start the team's first two games against the A's in Japan. "That's one of the reasons we're here early, to make sure we get Felix ready and we're probably looking at Vargas right now in regard to the first couple games," Wedge said, as reported by MLB.com. "It is a little odd, but that's OK. That's part of it. We're professionals here and we have to get multiple starters prepared for the regular season. It's not just about those two guys, it's about everybody else as well. We've got a lot of starting pitchers here in camp and we'll see how it plays out. I'm looking forward to the competition."
Analysis: Believe it or not, but Vargas is arguably the M's second-best pitcher heading into spring training. He has been a steady part of the M's rotation the last two seasons. He is 19-25 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of the 2010 campaign. However, he is not a dominant pitcher and has weak strikeout totals, so Vargas is nothing more than a low-end Fantasy SP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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