By the Numbers: Point of contact for sluggers
Baseball's power trend is sort of like the economy.
The numbers tell us that the decline is coming to an end, but things still aren't like they used to be. For the first time since 2006, major leaguers collectively hit more than 5,000 home runs, resulting in a 3.9 percent increase in homers per at-bat. This modest boost did virtually nothing to create a larger pool of power hitters in Fantasy. Last season, 28 batters hit at least 30 home runs, and this year 30 players went deep 30 times or more. Options for mid-level power became more scarce, as there were five fewer players in the 20-plus club this year as compared to last. Though it would have seemed absurd to say this earlier in the decade, it's not that easy to find power hitters to fill out your Fantasy roster.
If we define power as the ability to deliver any type of extra base hit, the picture looks no different. The Isolated Power average (Iso) for all major leaguers did creep up three percentage points from last year, from .152 to .155, but we are still a long way from the Juice Era high of .167 in 2000.
That's a seven percent decline in extra bases since 2000, but it's not just due to batters hitting the ball with less power. It has something to do with batters not hitting the ball at all. Strikeouts are at an all-time high, as major leaguers struck out a record 33,591 times in 2009. That pushed the big league whiff rate above 20 percent for the first time in history. If we calculate Iso only for those at-bats in which a hitter made contact, we see that there are still fewer extra bases as compared with 2000, but the decline is less than five percent.
The upshot for Fantasy owners is that power is still harder to find than it was a few years ago, so contributors to the power categories continue to be more valuable than they used to be. For most of today's extra-base threats, you will likely have to accept a higher strikeout rate and lower batting average as a part of the package. As a result, not only are hitters who are developing their power skills at a premium, but those who are doing so without sacrificing their batting average are especially prized.
Only six of the 23 batters who improved their Iso by 40 points or more in 2009 also lowered their whiff rates. Those who made the greatest advances in power hitting tended to also increase their strikeouts the most. Half a dozen of the nine batters with the highest year-to-year improvement in Iso, as shown in the table below, saw their strikeout rate climb by 2.5 percentage points or more. If you're curious about which player rounded out the top 10, it was Mark Reynolds, whose 37.8 percent strikeout rate in 2008 was so high, that it would be unrealistic to expect him to have increased it by much in 2009. Even so, he did raise it nearly a full percentage point to 38.6 percent. Also, Kendry Morales, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind would have been candidates for the top 10 if they had played more during the 2008 season and qualified for this list. Of this twenty-something trio, only Hill cut back on his Ks.
| Player | 2009 Iso | 2008 Iso | Iso Change | Whiff Rate Change |
| Hideki Matsui | 0.235 | 0.131 | 0.104 | 2.5% |
| Derrek Lee | 0.273 | 0.172 | 0.101 | 1.4% |
| Joe Mauer | 0.222 | 0.123 | 0.099 | 2.7% |
| Jason Bartlett | 0.170 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 2.6% |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.280 | 0.186 | 0.094 | 6.5% |
| Michael Young | 0.196 | 0.118 | 0.078 | -0.3% |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.233 | 0.159 | 0.074 | 2.9% |
| Prince Fielder | 0.303 | 0.231 | 0.072 | 0.6% |
| Billy Butler | 0.191 | 0.124 | 0.067 | 4.0% |
The six players who have traded off contact to gain more power did not accomplish it in the way that you might think. Matsui, Mauer, Bartlett, Ibanez, Zimmerman and Butler did not hack their way to extra bases. In fact, all six hitters were more patient, increasing their pitches per plate appearance (PPA), and according to the Fangraphs database, all but Mauer decreased the percentage of pitches they swung at. The benefits of a more patient approach are apparent, especially for Mauer, Bartlett and Zimmerman, all of whom have been trending towards higher line drive rates. The batting average among major leaguers on line drives in 2009 was .724, so hitting more line drives is one way to compensate for all those extra strikeouts. (Kudos to Baseball-Reference.com for providing the batting average on line drives as well as dozens of other splits.)
Not coincidentally, Mauer, Bartlett and Zimmerman all sported higher batting averages this year, even though all got rung up more often. Butler also jacked up his batting average, but he was probably lucky to do so. He won't likely hit .300 again, unless he can cut back his Ks or hit more liners like Mauer, Bartlett and Zimmerman did.
In today's power-depleted market, the ability of Mauer, Bartlett and Zimmerman to deliver more extra-base hits without sacrificing batting average makes them especially valuable. Despite their potent performances this past season, owners will probably be prone to view Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez as prime candidates for a downturn in '10. If you think their power numbers from '09 were artifacts of their new homer-friendly parks, you would be mistaken. Both posted a higher Iso on the road than at home this year. They may be heading into the latter years of their careers, but those road splits, along with surging PPAs and declining swing per pitches seen ratios, should give us reason to think that they can sustain this pace for a while longer.
Though the overwhelming majority of players hitting for more power had increasing difficulty making contact, a few showed improvement in both their power and contact rates. To be exact, four players managed to increase their Iso by at least 40 points while reducing their whiff rate by at least a full percentage point. Each of these players poses the potential to improve on their 2009 performance, but it would be nearly impossible to exaggerate the progress made by Adrian Gonzalez. Of all of the hitters who increased their Iso by 40 points or more, Gonzalez is the only one to increase his line drive rate by at least a percentage point, shave a point or more off his whiff rate, and increase his PPA. These gains should make Gonzalez the second most valuable first baseman in Fantasy going into 2010, and a legitimate first-rounder in most formats.
| Player | 2009 Iso | 2008 Iso | Iso Change | Whiff Rate Change |
| Nick Swisher | 0.249 | 0.191 | 0.058 | -1.9% |
| Kurt Suzuki | 0.147 | 0.091 | 0.056 | -2.6% |
| Adam Jones | 0.180 | 0.130 | 0.050 | -2.9% |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.274 | 0.231 | 0.043 | -3.4% |
As power numbers have plateaued, strikeouts have increased, and batting averages have plunged for a third straight year, players who can hit for both power and average have gradually become more valuable. Joe Mauer and Adrian Gonzalez are no one's idea of a sleeper, but as much as their stock rose over the past year, they probably have even more value than many owners realize. The same is true for young players like Adam Jones and Ryan Zimmerman, who have taken their power skills to a new level while making sustainable strides in their batting averages. Blame it on the apparent demise of PEDs or on the lost art of contact hitting (or both), but there aren't many emerging power/average threats as we head into 2010 and beyond. If you don't acquire one or more of the players profiled here, drafting for offense will likely involve some difficult tradeoffs.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
