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Eric Mack

Highlighting top Nationals prospects for '10

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


We break down the top five prospects for each organization for 2010, taking into consideration: games, at-bats, innings and major-league service time. We expect these players to have rookie status remaining heading into next year.

According to MLB rules: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list)."

Note: Statistics are those at each stop in the minors this season and age represents how old they will be on opening day 2010.

Washington Nationals

Here is the land of opportunity and a slew of high-end draft picks with loads of expectations. Washington has been picking at the top of drafts for years but surprisingly has produced little in the way of elite talent, save for third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. That should stop, at least temporarily, this year. The prospect to end all prospects is signed, sealed and ready to deliver.

1. Stephen Strasburg, SP, 21

The most-hyped amateur pitching prospect in baseball history throws 100 mph and could arrive in the major league rotation out of spring training never having thrown a pitch in the minor leagues. It will be a challenge for the right-handed future Cy Young award winner, especially since he will be breaking in with the lowly Nationals. But that is about the only negative we can see with Strasburg, who burst on the Fantasy prospect scene when he was chosen over A's pitching phenoms Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill to start the most crucial game of the 2008 Olympic Games for Team USA -- as an amateur. We tentatively project 10 victories, a 3.60 ERA, 125 strikeouts and 59 walks. Clearly, he has far more potential than anyone else that will be picked after the top 50 starting pitchers on Draft Day, but the uncertainty weighs down his present-day value. Long term, Baseball America says it best: "He projects as a true No. 1 starter and a Cy Young Award winner, and anything less will be a disappointment." Wow.

2. Derek Norris, C, 21

The Nationals like their current catcher in Jesus Flores, but they have a future star perhaps in Norris. He hit .286 with 23 homers, 84 RBI, 78 runs, 6 steals, a .414 on-base percentage and a .513 slugging percentage in 437 at-bats in low Class A. The level of competition was clearly below him, but you have to like a switch-hitting catcher with that much power who led the league in walks (90). In Fantasy leagues, catchers who can hit are golden -- especially prospect ones. Consider Norris a must-stash in keeper leagues and a potential impact starting Fantasy catcher in 2011.

3. Drew Storen, RP, 22

Usually we hate giving lofty billing to first-round picks who are closers. This is not your usual first-rounder and the Nationals are a team willing to hand the closer's job over to a young talent. Storen was the Nationals' second first-round pick in the first 10 picks, compensation for failing to sign Aaron Crow in 2008. He asserted himself nicely as a pro, posting a 1.95 ERA and 11 saves in 37 innings from low Class A to Double-A. He struck out 49 and walked just eight, allowing a paltry .162 batting-average against. He could make the bullpen out of spring training and if he proves as dominant as he can be, it won't be long before he is closing games in Washington.

4. Chris Marrero, OF, 21

Marrero hasn't quite lived up to lofty expectations yet, but he has shown signs of turning the corner and remains a must-stash Fantasy prospect. Marrero combined to go .284-17-76-67-2 (.358-.452) in 489 at-bats between high Class A and Double-A and then hit .338-3-18-11-0 (.398-.541) in 74 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League. It hasn't been decided whether he is a left fielder or first baseman, but either spot will make it difficult for Marrero to be a Fantasy gem right away. We figure he could arrive in 2010, but it likely would be in a limited late-season role at this point.

5. Ian Desmond, SS, 24

The Nationals like Desmond's skills so much, they have already announced a move of Cristian Guzman to second base for next season. The slow-developing prospect enjoyed a breakthrough in 2009, combining to go .330-7-32-54-21 (.401-.477) in 348 at-bats between Double- and Triple-A. He then went a surprisingly potent .280-4-12-9-1 (.318-.561) in 82 at-bats in his September call-up. Desmond is not guaranteed a starting job, but he has enough steals potential to be a nice late-round sleeper in NL-only Rotisserie formats on Draft Day. He is also a big man (6-feet-2, 210 pounds), so he could develop in a double-digit homer shortstop, too. Let's call him a poor man's Elvis Andrus for now.

Best of the rest: Michael Burgess, OF; Justin Maxwell, OF; Destin Hood, OF; Danny Espinosa, SS; Jeff Kobernus, 2B; Josh Smoker, SP; Jack McGeary, SP; Adrian Nieto, C; J.P. Ramirez, OF; Graham Hicks, SP; Trevor Holder, SP; A.J. Morris, SP; Eury Perez, OF; Leonard Davis, OF; Bill Rhinehart, 1B; Stephen King, 3B; Jorge Padilla, OF; Brad Meyers, SP; Luis Garcia, RP; Roger Bernadina, OF; Marco Estrada, RP; Will Atwood, SP; Colton Willems, SP; Cory Van Allen, SP; and Victor M. Garate, RP.

2009 rookies to exhaust eligibility: Jordan Zimmermann, SP; Ross Detwiler, SP; Shairon Martis, SP; Garrett Mock, SP; Craig Stammen, SP; Tyler Clippard, RP; and J.D. Martin, SP.

Last year's top five here: Zimmermann, SP; Marrero, 1B; Burgess, OF; Detwiler, SP; and Martis, SP.

You can e-mail Emack your prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Prospects in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.

 
 
 
Player News
A.J. Burnett
Burnett market is heating up
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
12:48 PM
News: FOXSports.com reports that four teams are now interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, including the Pirates, who have been in trade negotiations over the righty for the last three days. The Pirates are still the Yankees' preferred trading partner, though ESPN.com reports that the two sides are still in dispute over how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees should pay and which players Pittsburgh would give up. One of the four teams vying for Burnett is on his "no-trade list," though that team has not been identified.
Analysis: While the Yankees and Pirates are not close to making a deal, several sources have reported that there is a good chance that the sides will come to an agreement before the start of the regular season. A move to the National League will probably have a positive impact on Burnett's stats, but ultimately, he would still be too big of a risk to draft in standard mixed leagues.

Manny Ramirez
Field of Ramirez suitors shrinks by one
Manny Ramirez, DH, TB
3:23 PM
News: MASN.com reports that the Orioles have decided not to pursue free agent DH Manny Ramirez. Baltimore had been one of three teams, along with Oakland and Toronto, who had been considering the 39-year-old. "I don't think there's going to be a fit for Manny," executive vice president Dan Duquette said. "We've looked at that all winter and I'm not sure there's a fit there for the Orioles. I wish Manny a lot of luck, but I just don't think he fits in our ballclub right now." The team has recently signed free agents Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson, both of whom could contend for the DH spot, lessening the need to sign Ramirez.
Analysis: The Orioles now have other potential designated hitters to turn to, and Ramirez comes with a 50-game PED suspension, so he is not an attractive option. With the A's and Blue Jays still in play, though, Ramirez still has a chance to be relevant in AL-only leagues this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson smooths out his delivery
Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
2:14 PM
News: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves SP Tommy Hanson has worked this offseason to alter his pitching delivery in the hopes that it will make him less prone to injury. Hanson missed most of the final two months of last season due to a shoulder injury, and his health issues were attributed, at least in part, to a hitch in his delivery. He has worked with pitching coach Roger McDowell on a new, smoother delivery over the last six weeks, which should shift some of the stress of his throwing motion to his lower body. In addition to reducing the impact on his arm and shoulder, the more compact delivery should help Hanson to reduce the number of stolen bases off of him.
Analysis: We have yet to see how well Hanson will pitch in a game with his new delivery, but if it can make him more durable and prevent steals, it will enhance his already-robust Fantasy value. Even with health concerns, Hanson profiles as a low-end No. 2 SP, and if his new delivery works out, he could produce at an even higher level.

Jason Varitek
Varitek getting some interest
Jason Varitek, C, BOS
12:16 PM
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that free agent C Jason Varitek has received some interest from teams this offseason, and he will soon decide whether to play in 2012. The Red Sox, for whom Varitek has played his entire 15-year major league career, are among the teams interested. Retirement is a possible option for the 39-year-old.
Analysis: Varitek has played in just 107 games over the last two seasons, so even if he decides to play one more year, he is unlikely to be a factor in most Fantasy leagues. He does still have some pop in his bat, though, so owners in deep formats should stay tuned to see what Varitek decides.

Brandon Gomes
Gomes recovering from back surgery
Brandon Gomes, RP, TB
11:18 AM
News: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Rays RP Brandon Gomes continues to recover from back surgery that he underwent in November, and he is at risk of missing the beginning of spring training. Gomes had the procedure to clean out the area around a disc, and he is still probably at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound. "Right now it's progressing along great, I don't really see anything to be concerned about," Gomes told reporters on Friday. "I might miss the very beginning of spring training, but that's about it." Gomes could still be ready for the beginning of the regular season.
Analysis: Gomes pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 40 games with the Rays. He will probably fill a middle relief role for Tampa Bay again this season. A good strikeout pitcher, Gomes is a low-end option for owners in leagues that use middle relievers.

Cody Ross
Ross re-working his swing
Cody Ross, LF, BOS
9:59 AM
News: Red Sox OF Cody Ross was disappointed with his 2011 season, in which he batted just .240 for the Giants, but he told WEEI.com that he is making some changes in order perform better in 2012. Ross watched video from his performances last year and noticed some adjustments that he needed to make at the plate. Specifically, Ross said he is "really focusing on just driving the ball and staying on top of the ball as opposed to swinging with more of an upper-cut." Ross started to address these changes late last season, working with former Giants teammate Carlos Beltran.
Analysis: Ross' flyball rate skyrocketed to 48 percent last season, resulting in a high percentage of flyouts, which put a damper on his batting average. Not only could his new approach to hitting help him to cut back on those easy outs, but it could pay big dividends in doubles-friendly Fenway Park. Ross lacks a regular position, but between filling in for injured Carl Crawford (wrist) early in the year and spelling Ryan Sweeney in right field, he could put together a decent amount of playing time. Look to Ross as a solid option in AL-only leagues.

Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera shedding weight for move to 3B
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
2/10/2012
News: Tigers C Alex Avila told ESPN.com on Friday that Miguel Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this offseason in anticipation of his move to third base. Cabrera, who played first base each of the last few seasons, is moving to the hot corner with Prince Fielder signing with Detroit in the offseason. Cabrera batted .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 2011.
Analysis: Cabrera came up as an infielder and has shown in the past that he can play the hot corner. His size has been one of the bigger question marks on whether or not he can last an entire season at third base so shedding some weight should help the process. Good thing for Fantasy owners is that his defense will not affect on his value, and he should continue to mash at the plate for Detroit. Add to the fact that he will gain duel eligibility and owners should target Cabrera as a Top 5 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Sean White
White catches on with BoSox
Sean White, RP, COL
12:42 AM
News: The Red Sox signed RP Sean White to a minor-league deal on Friday. The right-hander posted a 5.68 ERA in 53 appearances in the minors for the Rockies last season.
Analysis: White has a career 4.16 ERA and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Even if he breaks camp with the big club, plan on ignore him in all Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

Garrett Jones
Jones to stay in Pittsburgh
Garrett Jones, RF, PIT
2/10/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees offered A.J. Burnett to the Pirates, but had asked for OF Garrett Jones in return. The Pirates balked at the offer, as they want to hold on to Jones. However, negotiations for a trade involving Burnett are ongoing, as the teams are differing on how much of Burnett's salary that Yankees should pay.
Analysis: Should the Pirates change their minds, Jones would certainly benefit from a move to the Yankees and their homer-friendly park. However, it appears that Jones will be staying put in Pittsburgh, where he will remain an option mostly for owners in NL-only leagues.

Zachary Walters
Walters opening some eyes
Zachary Walters, SS, ARI
2/10/2012
News: Nationals prospect Zachary Walters was chosen to play in the Arizona Fall League this offseason and has opened some eyes with his play. While he batted just .205 with one homer and 10 RBI through 24 games, Washington infield coordinator Jeff Garber told MASNSports.com that he has been impressed with the 22-year-old. "Tremendous, tremendous athletic ability," Garber said when asked about Walters. "He has great instincts and is a very aggressive player. I really like what I saw. He has some things to polish, to shore up. He has got the versatlity to move around the infield and change positions, as we saw in Arizona where he played third base. He played (both positions for Single-A Potomac) and showed a tremendous arm."
Analysis: Walters, who was acquired for Jason Marquis from Arizona, batted .300 with nine home runs, 67 RBI and 19 stolen bases between two levels of the minors last season and is expected to begin 2012 with Double-A Harrisburg. He has some decent upside but since he is probably a year or two away from making an impact in the majors, continue to view Walters as more of a long-term prospect at this point.

 
 
 
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