By the Numbers: Free Agent Fantasy factors

Last Thursday, the free agent filing deadline came and went, signaling the clicking of the burners on the Hot Stove. With the only action as of this writing being the Cubs' signing of John Grabow and the White Sox signing Omar Vizquel, the "Stove" has not yet moved beyond the preheat setting.

It won't be long before we see bigger headlines, and we will start to see some of the more prominent names changing teams. Then the fun really begins, as we can speculate on how this year's crop of free agents will change the Fantasy landscape.

A year ago we wondered if Manny Ramirez could keep up his hot start as a Dodger, and predictably, he failed to in his suspension-shortened season. We conjectured as to how well CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira would hold up in the Big Apple (both did quite nicely, thank you). Despite these question marks and many others, it was pretty much status quo for the 2009 free agent class once they settled into their new digs. Sabathia, Teixeira, Raul Ibanez and Adam Dunn continued their productive ways as if they never changed uniforms. Others, like Ramirez, Jason Giambi and Ivan Rodriguez, suffered substantial downturns, though they were hardly unexpected.

Bay's doubles at Fenway could turn into outs in another park. (US Presswire)

Four of last year's free agents did make notable and unexpected departures from their usual levels of production. Both Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell had solid contract years in '08, only to go cold with new teams in '09. Meanwhile, Randy Wolf and Felipe Lopez posted some of the best stats of their careers with their new clubs, though both were marginal Fantasy threats just a year before.

Were these free agents more receptive to or repelled by their new environments than the others? Not necessarily. Burrell simply didn't hit lefties with any power last year (no home runs in 119 AB), and his move from Philly to St. Pete had nothing to do with that. Wolf brought down his walk and line drive rates, but we probably can't credit the Dodgers' organization or stadium with those feats. In neither case was there an obvious link between the player's new level of performance and the change of employer.

Bradley and Lopez, however, appeared to be impacted by their new hitting environments. Like Burrell, Bradley had poor power splits against lefties, and his new home park didn't help matters. According to The Bill James Handbook 2010, Wrigley Field ranked as one of the five worst National League home run parks for right-handed hitters. The switch-hitting Bradley struggled as a righty all season long, but his one long ball in his 57 right-handed at-bats at Wrigley sank his overall power numbers. Lopez hit over .300 as a Diamondback and as a Brewer, even though he had never finished a season with a .300 batting average before and is a career .269 hitter. Then again, he had spent the vast majority of his career playing for teams without a dome. Lopez' .310 average was boosted by a .334 average in 91 games played when the roof was closed.

For most of last year's free agents who signed with a new team, the move did little to impact their Fantasy value. Still, Bradley and Lopez give us pause to wonder what clues lurk in the splits of this year's free agents that might help us to project their performances in 2010. Already we know to be wary of Lopez -- a free agent again this year--if he winds up in an open-air stadium. We also know that Randy Wolf will have a difficult time repeating the 16 percent line drive rate and .257 BABIP that underlied his strong '09 campaign, regardless of where he signs. But what about the rest of the free agent class of '10?

For the eight free agents profiled below, a change of scenery could amount to a change in Fantasy value. Each possesses one or more statistical splits that could make him a better fit for some teams more than for others. In assessing the potential for each of these players in 2010, I got a timely assist from the The Bill James Handbook 2010, which provides data on park factors and managerial tendencies. Bear these splits in mind as you follow the Hot Stove action, and come Draft Day, adjust your rankings -- and expectations -- accordingly.

Matt Holliday, OF: A year ago, most of the conjecture about Holliday after his trade to Oakland was about whether his offense would hold up after leaving Coors Field for a pitcher's park. His power declined somewhat in 2009, but not nearly as much as his stolen base production. It was actually Holliday's midseason move to St. Louis that made the most notable impact on his Fantasy stats. He stole 12 bases out of 15 attempts in 93 games with the A's, putting him on his typical pace. In his 63 games as a Cardinal, Holliday was only 2-for-6. Tony LaRussa has been one of the most steal-averse managers in the majors over the last several years. Look for Holliday's stolen base totals to rebound if he moves on from the Gateway City.

Jason Bay, OF: Owners may be just as interested in Bay's signing as Holliday's; the two were similar in Fantasy value in standard 5x5 and H2H formats last year. Bay's value depends heavily on his home run power, which has been helped by a surging flyball rate. Several of those long flies became doubles off the Green Monster. There was no better place in the majors last season to hit doubles than Fenway Park, so look for fewer doubles and more flyouts if Bay departs Boston.

John Lackey, SP: The most coveted pitcher among this year's free agents has benefited from some very good infield defense in Anaheim. As measured by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Kendry Morales, Chone Figgins, and Maicer Izturis were among the rangiest defenders at their respective positions last year. It's no coincidence that Lackey's success has been built on generating a low OPS and BABIP on ground balls. Unless he winds up in front of another good infield, such as Texas, he will probably not get the same kind of defensive support in 2010. In that case, look for a higher WHIP and ERA for Lackey next season.

Chone Figgins, 3B: Figgins' outstanding defense helped to boost the stats of his pitching staff, but he was just paying forward the lift he got from his skipper. Mike Scioscia loves to have his players run, whether it's to steal bases or move up on contact. Playing for just about any other manager, you can expect Figgins' stolen base totals to take a dive, just as Holliday's did when left Oakland. His run totals could dip somewhat, too, particularly if he signs with the Phillies or the White Sox, where the managers have been less inclined toward aggressive baserunning.

Johnny Damon, OF: New Yankee Stadium has been very good to Damon -- and to all hitters with a home run stroke. He only hit seven dingers away from the Bronx in '09, so with a move to another team, the 37 year-old will likely go back to being a 12-15 home run threat. Regardless of where Damon calls home, a trend of increasing strikeouts and flyballs could signal a further drop in his batting average.

Bengie Molina, C: AT&T Park has the reputation of being a pitchers' park, which makes Molina's 12 home runs in 233 home at-bats look all the more impressive. Actually, the Giants' home turned out to be pretty friendly to right-handed power hitters this past season, ranking among the top four in home run park factor among National League stadiums. Given Molina's age, position and strikeout and flyball trends, 2010 could be the first year of a downward spiral, especially if he lands with a team that plays in a truly pitcher-friendly stadium.

Marco Scutaro, SS: Wherever Scutaro plays, he is certain to draw fewer walks, giving back some of enormous offensive gains he made this past year. What he may lose in his walk rate, he could gain in batting average with a move away from Rogers Centre. Scutaro should benefit from moving to an open-air stadium, since he is just a .252 career hitter when playing under a dome. This past season, his career-best .282 average was dampened by a .242 average playing in his domed home. If he plays the bulk of his games outdoors in '10, Scutaro could maintain or improve his Roto value, but an imminent drop in walks could still hurt his owners in Head-to-Head.

Jarrod Washburn, SP: After one of the flukiest campaigns offered up by a starting pitcher this year, Washburn's stat line will likely wilt regardless of where he plays next season. He is rumored to be headed to either Milwaukee or Minnesota, and either move could backfire. Washburn allows contact frequently, so it helped that he had the Mariners' superb defense behind him for most of '09. The Brewers' and Twins' porous defenses could spell trouble, and Washburn's .256 BABIP could easily rise above .300.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.