Our initial top-10 keepers for 2010
By Scott White | Fantasy Writer Follow ScottFollow CBS Fantasy Baseball
If you won your league last year, you likely did it because you invested wisely in the middle and late rounds, targeting players who ended up performing like early-rounders.
So of course, heading into 2010, they now rate as early-rounders, losing all the value that made them so critical to your team's success in 2009. That discounted rate, as much as you enjoyed it at the time, expires after only one year. But what if it lasted longer?
In some keeper leagues, it does. Every player you keep costs you a draft pick relative to that player's value the previous year. It might be a pick from the same round; it might be from a round or two earlier. But the point is the value doesn't expire. It carries over from one year to the next, allowing you to reap the benefits of one shrewd selection over and over and over again.
Granted, some keeper leagues work differently. Some allow you to keep a set number of players without any penalties or reprisals, in which case you'd just keep the best players on your team and call it a night. Consult the rankings if you need help there.
But if you play in a league that preserves value, this list will allow you to take advantage.
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| Adam Lind was largely undrafted last spring, but he'll be an early target in 2010. (US Presswire) |
If your league allows you to make offseason trades, study up. The more of these players you own, the more of a head start you'll have on next season.
10. Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays (Round 26)
You could argue for Lind to move up on this list, and perhaps he should. After all, he ranked sixth among outfielders in standard Head-to-Head scoring and was one of only four players, regardless of position, to hit .300 with 35 homers and 100 RBI.
And oh yeah, he went undrafted in most leagues, making the price for keeping him next to nothing.
No doubt, he's an excellent keeper, but some questions about his ability to repeat those numbers make him no more than the 10th best. He has never walked much in the majors or the minors, and although he didn't go completely ignored by the prospect hounds, he didn't have the pedigree of a Travis Snider either.
Still, at some point forecasting has to give way to reality, and Lind might have crossed that threshold with his performance in 2009. He hit over .300 in four of the six months, showing he didn't just ride some hot streak to abnormally high totals.
Lind might have peaked last year, but even if he takes a slight step backward, you can't argue with middle-of-the-order production for the price of a late-round pick. And at age 26, he has plenty of good years ahead.
9. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers (Round 9)
As crazy as it seems now, people lost faith in Verlander in 2008 after he led the league with 17 losses, posted an ERA near 5.00 and showed discouraging trends in his walk and strikeout rates. The 26-year-old flamethrower who had looked like a perennial Cy Young contender just one year earlier became nothing more than a middle-round pick in Fantasy.
But it didn't last long.
Verlander came roaring back in 2009, leading the league in wins (19), innings pitched (240), strikeouts (260) and strikeouts per nine innings (10.1). He finished third in Cy Young voting and in every way dismissed his 2008 season as nothing more than an aberration.
Yet as much as he tries to distance himself from those numbers, he can't escape the one truth that forever alters his value in keeper leagues: He didn't get drafted until the middle rounds.
Yes, all the disappointment from that season worked out for the best since it gives you a second chance to lock up Verlander at a discounted rate. It's like his rookie season all over again.
Rarely does a player with such an established track record come with such a low price tag. If you had the courage to draft Verlander when everyone else went running for the hills, don't let this opportunity go to waste.
8. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals (Round 10)
In retrospect, Zimmerman probably just arrived too early. After he posted the same middle-of-the-road numbers for three straight years, Fantasy owners stopped banking on his potential in the early rounds and let him slide to the middle rounds, letting someone else take the bait.
So naturally, he broke through, opening the season with a 30-game hitting streak and never looking back. He actually improved in the second half, posting a .969 OPS with a substantially improved walk rate.
It was the kind of performance that had to come sooner or later for the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft. And it came at age 24, giving him plenty of time to develop even more.
In a year when David Wright stopped hitting for power and Alex Rodriguez didn't play for a whole month, Zimmerman ranked first among all third baseman in standard Head-to-Head scoring. Now that he has established himself as a .300-30-100-100 player at what has suddenly become one of the weaker positions in Fantasy, he clearly ranks among the game's elite.
As a fourth-round pick, you'd want to hold on to him. As a ninth-round pick, it's one of the easiest decisions you'll make in 2010.
7. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves (Round 26)
Hanson has the least experience of all the players on this list, but he made perhaps the best first impression. The man the Braves refused to trade for Jake Peavy last offseason more than validated their restraint with a 2.89 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and nearly a strikeout per inning in 21 starts.
He didn't reach the majors until June, but he pitched like an ace from the beginning, showing command and poise beyond his 23 years of age. The fact he didn't win NL Rookie of the Year will become one of those head-scratchers in hindsight since he already appears capable of contending for a Cy Young award.
He looks like he's on the same fast track as Tim Lincecum, meaning if you want to keep him for a price anywhere close to affordable, now's the time.
And really, it couldn't have worked out any better for you. Because Hanson began last season in the minors, he went undrafted in most Fantasy leagues, giving you the chance to keep a player who projects as an eight- or ninth-rounder -- and has the ability to perform like a second-rounder -- for next to nothing.
And in long-term keeper leagues, that next-to-nothing price tag could secure the top of your rotation for years to come.
6. Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks (Round 14)
Yes, Reynolds upped his own major-league record by striking out 223 times last year, but he progressed in other ways -- good ways -- finally making the most of his power potential by connecting for 44 homers.
With that big step forward, he becomes one of the safest bets for 40 homers in the majors, joining Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Adam Dunn. But unlike those three, he plays a position lacking in high-end talent. He also offers some speed, shocking the world with 24 stolen bases.
And, oh yeah, he was a middle-to-late-round pick in Fantasy drafts last season, making him by far the best value of the four if you have the luxury of keeping him at last year's going rate.
How many other players offer 40-20 potential, and how much would you pay to get it at third base? That's Alex Rodriguez-type stuff. If all those strikeouts didn't more or less condemn Reynolds to a mediocre batting average (and potentially some debilitating slumps), he might rank No. 1 on this list.
Even if he stops stealing bases, which might happen if the Diamondbacks don't have as much trouble generating runs in 2010, Reynolds would still deserve an early-round pick. How could you not sacrifice a 14th-rounder for a guaranteed 40 homers?
5. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants (Round 16)
Sandoval played his first full season in the majors last year and nearly won the batting title -- an impressive feat in its own right, but when you consider he did it with power, and at the tender age of 23, you have to start assessing it from a historical perspective. We might be looking at the best natural hitter to break into the game since Albert Pujols.
Now, before you start accusing me of misrepresenting Sandoval as a first-round pick in 2010, keep in mind that just because the game comes easily to him doesn't mean he has Pujols' upside. But it does suggest he has elite potential if his supporting cast can provide him with a few more RBI and runs scored.
He only seemed to get more comfortable as the year progressed, hitting .340 with 22 of his 25 homers after the end of May. If he can maintain that pace over the course of an entire season, he'd become a .330-hitting, 30-homer guy, making him similar to Miguel Cabrera, but with the notable distinction of playing third base instead of first.
And of course, at age 23, he has room to improve from there.
You get the idea? Sandoval has the potential for big, big numbers, and his relatively low strikeout rate suggests his high batting average had little to do with luck. And in 2010, he'll have more to back up his abilities than that 145 at-bat track record that made him just a 16th-round pick in 2009.
4. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks (Round 16)
At first glance, Upton's numbers don't look particularly special. That .300 batting average is nice. So are those 20 stolen bases. But his 26 homers, 86 RBI and 84 runs scored don't put him head and shoulders above the Nate McLouths of the world.
Of course, you have to remember he's only 22 years old.
Yes, the Diamondbacks promoted Upton as a 19-year-old in 2007. A team could have only two reasons for putting so much pressure on a player that young. Either it desperately needed to sell tickets, or it believed it had the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. The Diamondbacks averaged nearly 30,000 fans per game that year. You make the call.
The amount of progress Upton has made at such a young age shows just what kind of upside he has. And as long as his high strikeout rate doesn't drag down his batting average, he'll only get better in 2010. Just imagine what he'll do in his prime.
Even if all those strikeouts force him to take half a step back before taking another two steps forward, Round 16 is silly value. If you play in a long-term keeper league that allows you to keep the same player at more or less the same price for years at a time, you have your franchise in Upton.
3. Zack Greinke, SP, Royals (Round 11)
Greinke won the AL Cy Young award. Perhaps that's all you need to know.
But of course, his value goes deeper than that in Fantasy. He was the best kind of ace, the unexpected kind, meaning if you had him, you probably had one or two other aces -- the expected kind -- on what was surely a league-leading pitching staff.
And if you play in a keeper league, you can repeat that feat.
But first, you might need some convincing he can repeat the feat. After all, he spent five years in the majors before suddenly emerging as an ace last year. Keep in mind, though, the Royals rushed him up from the minors at age 20. And if that wasn't bad enough, he then missed nearly a year battling social anxiety disorder. Since returning, the steps he's made, first reestablishing himself as a legitimate prospect in 2007 and then demonstrating ace potential with a 2.32 ERA over his final 10 starts in 2008, fall in line with what most people would consider the natural progression for a former first-round pick.
In other words, after all the setbacks, he became exactly what he should have become.
About the worst thing going for him is the fact he plays for the Royals, but hey, he overcame that once already.
2. Joe Mauer, C, Twins (Round 7)
Mauer didn't fall off anyone's radar last year. In fact, he went fourth among all catchers on Draft Day.
But that just shows you the kind of year he had. He improved his value so much that, even at last year's going rate, he's still the second-best bargain in Fantasy.
He added something to his game in 2009, something some people thought he might never develop: power. It came suddenly, but it came to such an extent that it gave him the second-highest OPS among everyday players, behind only Albert Pujols. Throw in a batting title, his third in the last four years, and Mauer finished with the kind of numbers that would make him a first-round pick even if he played first base.
But oh wait, he plays catcher. Catcher -- a position so inconsequential that some seasoned Fantasy owners wait until the final rounds to fill it.
Nothing inconsequential about Mauer's numbers.
And it's not just his numbers that separate him from the pack. The Twins need his bat in the lineup, so they do whatever necessary to keep it there, starting him at designated hitter even on his "off" days. He rises above all other catchers on at-bats alone.
With that kind of advantage at a position that weak, you could make the argument for Mauer to go No. 1 overall. True, the law of averages suggests he has to take some kind of step back, even if it's a small one, but let's not forget he did what he did, scoring the 19th-most Fantasy points among all those first basemen and outfielders, even though he missed the entire month of April.
Yup, it's Mauer and everyone else at the catcher position, which makes him potentially the most important building block in Fantasy and well worth the price of a seventh-round pick. If you can get him at a discount of any sort, you want to take advantage.
1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies (Round 9)
Tulowitzki had one of those years you don't fully appreciate until after the fact, when you have a moment to step back and assess his numbers in relation to those of his peers.
In all the commotion of the Rockies' late-season surge to the playoffs, his second half became nothing more than a footnote. But he had one for the ages, one that elevated him to elite status in Fantasy.
He hit .344 with 16 home runs after the All-Star break and .326 with 27 home runs from the end of May, posting a slugging percentage over .600 and an OPS over 1.000 each of the last four months. He was actually better than Hanley Ramirez during that stretch, and not by just a little.
You could lump that performance in with the usual ups and downs every player has over the course of a season, but Tulowitzki had a clear-cut reason for his. Hitting coach Don Baylor, as he did with Andres Galarraga so many years earlier, convinced Tulowitzki to use a more open and upright stance, allowing him to see the ball better. The change was nothing subtle, and the results were like a slap across the face.
So what you dismiss as a hot streak I see as a realization of talent. Tulowitzki is back on the path that made him runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 2007, only with more power, more speed (he also stole a career-high 20 bases) and an improving strikeout-to-walk ratio. He and Ramirez rate as the only two elite options at a position devoid of offensive firepower, so for the price of a ninth-round pick, he's a no-brainer. He won't last beyond the second round on Draft Day, and in the years that follow, he might not last beyond the first.
Near misses: 1B Kendry Morales (undrafted), 2B Ben Zobrist (undrafted), 2B Aaron Hill (Round 24), SP Josh Johnson (Round 12), SP Adam Wainwright (Round 9), 1B Joey Votto (Round 9), C Victor Martinez (Round 7)
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