Proving age isn't just a number in Fantasy
When judging how last year's 27-year-old breakout class fared, it is a tale of two extremes. We have those that broke out and those that broke down.
Unfortunately, we didn't get them all right.
As part of our annual review, we take the time to critique our Top 10 27-year-old breakouts from last spring. Although we had a big-time bust at the top and some other disappointments in the top 10, it was still a banner year for 27-year-old breakouts. We just didn't do a good job highlighting the right ones.
Our mea culpa.
As we break down the breakdowns in last year's Top 10, we also include who we should have had at each spot. We offered no guarantees other than saying there are going to be some 27-year-olds with surprising years.
Even if we didn't properly forecast the individuals, we at least gave you a category to target them in.
(We define a 27-year-old as anyone who will be that age at any point during the season, whether they had their 27th birthday after the 2008 regular season or during the 2009 regular season.)
1. Grady Sizemore
Outfielder | Cleveland Indians
27th birthdate: Aug. 2, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .290 AVG, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 134 R, 38 SB, 390 OBP, .533 SLUG
2009 projected: .279-30-80-115-35 (.343-445)
2009 actual: .248-18-64-73-13
You can't get a player more wrong, albeit due to an elbow injury that required season-ending surgery. Instead of reaching his career highs, Sizemore set new career lows across the board. That is as bad as it gets in the field of statistical projections. The elbow had to be the reason, so we expect a bounce-back year for one of the game's stars. Remember what kind of surprising rebound Victor Martinez enjoyed? He was affected by the same injury and wound up being a 2009 Fantasy MVP.
| | ||
| Player | Pos | Team |
| Grady Sizemore | OF | Indians |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | Rangers |
| Alexei Ramirez | SS | White Sox |
| Carlos Quentin | OF | White Sox |
| Conor Jackson | OF | Diamondbacks |
| Kelly Johnson | 2B | Braves |
| Rickie Weeks | 2B | Brewers |
| J.J. Hardy | SS | Brewers |
| Jhonny Peralta | SS | Indians |
| Jason Kubel | OF | Twins |
Who we should have had ...
Aaron Hill
Second baseman | Toronto Blue Jays
27th birthdate: May 26, 2008
Previous career highs by category: .291-17-78-87-4 (.349-.549)
2009 projected: .284-11-65-65-4 (.339-.410)
2009 actual: .286-36-108-103-6 (.330-.499)
We are frankly embarrassed with our projections on Hill, especially since he was still the prime age. He was one of our injury-risk sleeper targets, but we couldn't be sure of how he might have been affected long term by post-concussion syndrome. It had ruined players in the past, most recently ending Corey Koskie's career and turning Ryan Church from beast to bum. This power is legit, born from a player's doubles becoming homers, with age, experience and increased strength.
2. Ian Kinsler
Second baseman | Texas Rangers
27th birthdate: June 22, 2009
Previous career highs by category:.319-20-71-102-26 (.375-.517)
2009 projected: .290-22-80-106-27 (.362-.473)
2009 actual: .253-31-86-101-31 (.327-.488)
My colleague, Scott White, and I engaged in a lively debate (in podcasts, blogs, etc ...) over where Kinsler should have been drafted last spring. He said 10-14th overall. This writer said that was too early, even though we liked the 27-year-old to set career highs. He set some, but he disappointed with his average, dropping 66 points. So, Kinsler was an emerging star. But a Fantasy Baseball cornerstone? Not quite.
Who we should have had ...
Kinsler. He belongs somewhere in this top 10, even if his year only slightly beat our projections.
3. Alexei Ramirez
Shortstop | Chicago White Sox
27th birthdate: Sept. 22, 2008
Previous career highs by category: .290-21-77-65-13 (.317-.475)
2009 projected: .284-23-85-83-15
2009 actual: .277-15-68-71-14 (.333-.389)
Ramirez suffered the infamous sophomore swoon, rarely going on his wild tears that made him so promising as a rookie import from Cuba. He did dramatically improve his walk rate, though, so he could be a candidate to have a 28-year-old revival.
Who we should have had ...
Ben Zobrist
Second baseman/outfielder | Tampa Bay Rays
27th birthdate: May 26, 2008
Previous career highs by category: .253-12-30-32-3 (.339-.505)
2009 projected: .277-12-43-35-5 (.352-.465)
2009 actual: .297-27-91-91-17 (.405-.543)
OK, we projected career highs, but we couldn't have projected how many at-bats Zobrist wound up with ... or how much he did with them. He became a Fantasy darling because of his versatility, but he wound up being an MVP because of his consistent production.
4. Carlos Quentin
Outfielder | Chicago White Sox
27th birthdate: Aug. 28, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .288-36-100-96-7 (.394-.571)
2009 projected: .286-37-111-100-11 (.365-.569)
2009 actual: .237-21-56-47-3 (.323-.456)
Quentin was another injury-plagued 27-year-old. He also had the problem of being so highly valued on Draft Day due to his 2008 breakthrough at 26. It was going to be difficult to better his career highs he set the previous season, although we thought he could if only because he missed time down the stretch of 2008. Well, he remained injury prone. That makes him a great injury-risk 27-year-old for 2010 now -- next year's Hill, perhaps.
| | ||
| Player | Pos | Team |
| Aaron Hill | 2B | Blue Jays |
| Ben Zobrist | SS/OF | Rays |
| David Aardsma | RP | Mariners |
| Jason Kubel | OF | Twins |
| Ian Kinsler | 2B | Rangers |
| Adam Wainwright | SP | Cardinals |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | Padres |
| Shin-Soo Choo | OF | Indians |
| Andre Ethier | OF | Dodgers |
| Brian Wilson | RP | Giants |
Who we should have had ...
David Aardsma
Relief pitcher | Seattle Mariners
27th birthdate: Dec. 20, 2008
Previous career bests by category: 4-2, 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 49 Ks and 0 saves
2009 projected: (3-2)-4.05-1.40-60-2
2009 actual: (3-6)-2.53-1.17-80-38
Looking at our projections, we figured Aardsma would have a career year by his previous standards, as a middle reliever. We didn't know he would become the closer very shortly after the start of the season. Brandon Morrow couldn't get the job done as a starter nor a closer. Aardsma did the job better than anyone could have imagined and is now the unquestioned stopper for a team that traditionally focuses on pitching and defense -- and therefore wins a lot of close games. It is rare to find a closer this dominant off the waiver wire in-season.
5. Conor Jackson
Outfielder | Arizona Diamondbacks
27th birthdate: May 7, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .300-15-79-87-10 (.376-.468)
2009 projected: .287-15-81-85-5 (.287-367)
2009 actual: .182-1-14-8-5 (.264-.253)
Another unmitigated disaster, but we will try to mitigate it by blaming it on injury as well. Jackson wasn't doing well early and wound up being diagnosed with valley fever. It is a serious illness but he was reportedly well enough to play ball this fall. He could be a rebound candidate this season, especially since he is now outfield-eligible.
Who we should have had ...
Adam Wainwright
Starting pitcher | St. Louis Cardinals
27th birthdate: Aug. 30, 2008
Previous career highs by category: 14-12, 3.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 136 Ks and 3 saves
2009 projected: (15-8)-3.63-1.28-154-0
2009 actual: (19-8)-2.63-1.21-212-0
Wainwright was highly regarded, but the 27-year-old, third-year starting pitcher broke through as a top 10 Fantasy ace and an NL Cy Young award candidate. He should remain that way for years now. You won't be able to get him in the middle rounds like you might have last spring.
6. Kelly Johnson
Second baseman | Atlanta Braves
27th birthdate: Feb. 22, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .287-16-69-91-11 (.375-.457)
2009 projected: .273-15-70-82-9 (.355-.440)
2009 actual: .224-8-29-47-7 (.303-.389)
Johnson is a lot better than he showed last year, but the Braves have already gone on record saying Martin Prado is expected to be their everyday second baseman next season. That doesn't leave much for Johnson, unless he moves to left field again, where his so-so power won't play as well. There is a perception that Johnson struggles against lefties, but he hit .325 against left-handers and .188 against right-handers last year.
Who we should have had ...
Adrian Gonzalez
First baseman | San Diego Padres
27th birthdate: May 8, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .304-36-119-103-0 (.362-.510)
2009 projected: .282-33-110-100-0 (.349-.511)
2009 actual: .277-40-99-90-1 (.407-.551)
There are aspects of last season that made A-Gone look a bit less impressive than the prior year, but the reality is he became a serious middle-of-the-order threat that had to be pitched around. Once he starts getting more pitches to hit, his numbers could wind up looking as impressive as anyone's.
7. Rickie Weeks
Second baseman | Milwaukee Brewers
27th birthdate: Sept. 13, 2009
Career highs by category: .279-16-46-89-25 (.374-.432)
2009 projected: .245-15-47-91-22 (.352-.406)
2009 actual: .272-9-24-28-2 (.340-.517)
Weeks, yet another of the injury-plagued 27-year-old crop, was off to a good start and looked ready to finally make good on all that promise last season. Wrist surgery ended his year far too soon, though, and he is now an injury-risk sleeper for 2010. He could be this year's Hill, perhaps, except with steals to boot.
Who we should have had ...
Shin-Soo Choo
Outfielder | Cleveland Indians
27th birthdate: July 13, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .309-14-66-68-4 (.397-.549)
2009 projected: .274-15-80-80-5 (.361-463)
2009 actual: .300-20-86-87-21 (.394-.489)
The Indians had a 27-year-old breakout in their outfield, just not Sizemore. Choo is a much better player than we give him credit for. Even teammate Travis Hafner singled out Choo as a definitive sleeper when we talked to him just before spring training. As one of those 27-year-olds that reached that age in the middle of last season, he will qualify on the 2010 top 27 year-olds to target. We have his projections at .296-20-85-82-17 (.386-.491) right now for 2010, but even those don't do him justice. One of these days we might jump on the bandwagon with two feet.
8. J.J. Hardy
Shortstop | Milwaukee Brewers
27th birthdate: Aug. 19, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .283-26-80-89-2 (.343-.478)
2009 projected: .272-24-75-85-4 (.331-.447)
2009 actual: .230-11-47-53-2 (.302-.358)
Hardy is another 27-year-old disappointment from a year ago, like the Braves' Johnson. The presence of speedy Alcides Escobar in Milwaukee forced Hardy to the bench down the stretch and to Minnesota in an offseason trade. He is another one of the disappointments that will be a 27-year-old rebound candidate this year, especially with the change of scenery. He is much better than he showed last year.
Who we should have had ...
Andre Ethier
Outfielder | Los Angeles Dodgers
27th birthdate: April 10, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .308-20-77-90-6 (.375-.511)
2009 projected: .283-20-70-91-2 (.364-.483)
2009 actual: .272-31-108-92-6 (.361-.508)
Ethier's average dipped, but the decline there was nullified with career-highs in RBI and runs. We now can believe he is a 30-homer outfielder annually, whereas we weren't sure prior to 2009.
9. Jhonny Peralta
Shortstop | Cleveland Indians
27th birthdate: May 28, 2009
Previous career highs by category: .292-24-89-104-4 (.366-.473)
2009 projected: .268-22-87-100-1 (.335-437)
2009 actual: .254-11-83-57-0 (.316-.375)
This is one of the most frustrating of the 27-year-olds. We waited for months for Peralta to get going, but he never did and even lost his job as the Indians' everyday shortstop. This might be an example of a player who peaked too soon and we just might have seen the best of him, even if he is a 27-year-old entering 2010.
Who we should have had ...
Brian Wilson
Relief pitcher | San Francisco Giants
27th birthdate: April 16, 2009
Previous career bests by category: (3-2)-4.64-1.45-67-41
2009 projected: (4-2)-4.29-1.46-65-34
2009 actual: (5-6)-2.75-1.21-83-38
Wilson had a high ERA and WHIP in his first full season as a closer in 2008, but he proved to be far more of a knockout guy at 27. There is now no question he is the Giants' long-term closer solution and that is a team with a great rotation that can get him a consistent number of save chances. It will be hard for him to be better than his 2009 numbers, but he technically falls in our 27-year-old category again next season.
10. Jason Kubel
Outfielder | Minnesota Twins
27th birthdate: May 25, 2009
Previous career bests by category: .273-20-78-74-4 (.336-.471)
2009 projected: .262-24-80-73-0 (.320-.455)
2009 actual: .300-28-103-73-1 (.369-.539)
Last but not least, Kubel was underrated even in our 27s list, chiming in at No. 10. He was one of the best 27-year-old breakthroughs, though, setting career highs all over (except for runs and steals) and beating projections in everything but runs. Kubel is exactly what our 27-year-old rule of thumb is about, you can find value in the late rounds by taking chances on guys entering their prime.
Last season our Age-27 Top 10 had a lot of established Fantasy commodities, but the Top 10 coming out of the season highlighted mostly Age 27 surprises. We will try to do a better job projecting the surprises, but isn't that what makes a sleeper a sleeper? You don't see them coming.
Without getting into the 2010 class of 27-year-olds in depth (at least not yet), here are someone the most significant players at the prime age: Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET; Michael Bourn, OF, HOU; Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET; Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY; Matt Capps, RP, PIT; Ronny Cedeno, SS, PIT; Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE; Jeff Clement, C/1B, PIT; Manny Corpas, RP, COL; Kyle Davies, SP, KC; Joey Devine, RP, OAK; Stephen Drew, SS, ARI; Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS; Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, TOR; Andre Ethier, OF, LAD; Scott Feldman, SP, TEX; Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW; Jake Fox, 3B, OAK; Chris Getz, 2B, KC; Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD; Tom Gorzelanny, SP, CHC; Franklin Gutierrez, OF, PHI; Juan Gutierrez, RP, ARI; J.A. Happ, SP, PHI; J.J. Hardy, SS, MIN; Blake Hawksworth, RP, STL; Luke Hochevar, SP, KC; J.P. Howell, RP, TB; Chris Iannetta, C, COL; Conor Jackson, OF, ARI; Edwin Jackson, SP, DET; Jim R. Johnson, RP, BAL; Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA; Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX; Casey Kotchman, 1B, BOS; George Kottaras, C, MIL; Jason Kubel, OF, MIN; Andy LaRoche, 3B, PIT; Adam Lind, OF, TOR; Mark Lowe, RP, SEA; Paul Maholm, SP, PIT; Carlos Marmol, RP, CHC; Sean Marshall, SP, CHC; Russell Martin, C, LAD; Jeff Mathis, C, LAA; Joe Mauer, C, MIN; Brandon McCarthy, SP, TEX; Casey McGehee, 3B, MIL; Yadier Molina, C, STL; Miguel Montero, C, ARI; Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA; Brandon Moss, OF, PIT; Jeff Niemann, SP, TB; Fernando Nieve, SP, NYM; Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA; Micah Owings, RP, CIN; Manny Parra, SP, MIL; Eric Patterson, 2B, OAK; Steve Pearce, OF, PIT; Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS; Hunter Pence, OF, HOU; Jhonny Peralta, SS/3B, CLE; Glen Perkins, SP, MIN; Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW; Jose B. Reyes, SS, NYM; Mark Reynolds, 3B, ARI; Clayton Richard, SP, SD; Ryan Rowland-Smith, SP, SEA; Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA; Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE; Andy Sonnanstine, SP, TB; Jeremy Sowers, SP, CLE; Tim Stauffer, SP, SD; Huston Street, RP, COL; Eugenio Velez, OF, SF; Will Venable, OF, SD; Joey Votto, 1B, CIN; Jered Weaver, SP, LAA; Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL; Randy Wells, SP, CHC; David Wright, 3B, NYM; and Chris B. Young, OF, ARI.
We outline our take on them in these categories below: 27s already productive and in their prime; 27s who had big breakout years at age 26; 27s who have already been productive but are better than they showed in 2009; and, finally, some 27-year-olds who have yet to break through and can next year.
| | ||||
| POS | Already at prime | Broke out at 26 | Can improve from '09 | Yet to break through |
| C | Yadier Molina | Joe Mauer | Russell Martin | Miguel Montero |
| 1B | Miguel Cabrera | Kendry Morales | Adrian Gonzalez | Joey Votto |
| 2B | Dustin Pedroia | Robinson Cano | Ian Kinsler | Howie Kendrick |
| 3B | David Wright | Mark Reynolds | David Wright | Edwin Encarnacion |
| SS | Jose B. Reyes | J.J. Hardy | Jhonny Peralta | Stephen Drew |
| OF | Grady Sizemore | Adam Lind | Grady Sizemore | Chris B. Young |
| OF | Andre Ethier | Jacoby Ellsbury | Carlos Quentin | Conor Jackson |
| OF | Hunter Pence | Michael Bourn | Shin-Soo Choo | Will Venable |
| SP | Jered Weaver | Edwin Jackson | Ricky Nolasco | Sean Marshall |
| SP | Ricky Nolasco | Scott Feldman | Jeremy Bonderman | Brandon McCarthy |
| SP | Gavin Floyd | J.A. Happ | Andy Sonnanstine | Tom Gorzelanny |
| SP | Paul Maholm | Jeff Niemann | Glen Perkins | Manny Parra |
| RP | Huston Street | J.P. Howell | Carlos Marmol | Micah Owings |
Send us your two cents on the Age 27s to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com.Be sure to put Age 27s in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
