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Scott White

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Milwaukee Brewers

By | Fantasy Writer


Coming off their first playoff appearance in 26 years, the Brewers hoped to keep the momentum going with a run at the division title last year. But the loss of CC Sabathia proved too much to overcome, and although the Brewers didn't embarrass themselves by finishing 11 games out of first place, they did have a sub-.500 record.

So begins the second youth movement in Milwaukee -- one that shouldn't be nearly as painful as the first. In fact, the Brewers have a shot at contending with established superstars Prince Fielder and Ryan J. Braun anchoring the middle of the lineup. Still, with veterans J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall and Mike Cameron gone, replaced by lower-cost, higher-upside players like Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Carlos Gomez, the Brewers will endure some growing pains. And they'll get even younger when prospect Jonathan LuCroy ousts placeholder Gregg Zaun from behind the plate this summer.

With their starting lineup on the brink of realizing its long-awaited potential, the Brewers invested in veteran hurlers Randy Wolf and Doug Davis this offseason, hoping the two lefties can keep the team competitive until its pitching prospects catch up with its hitting prospects. The Brewers already have a long-term solution at the top of the rotation in Yovani Gallardo, a strikeout artist who's just a tweak or two away from becoming an ace. Manny Parra, another strikeout guy, hasn't progressed as hoped and will have to compete with Dave Bush for a rotation spot.

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Of course, the biggest concern for the Brewers' immediate future is how well Rickie Weeks and Corey C. Hart bounce back from injury. Throw in Casey McGehee, whose surprise breakthrough leaves Gamel without a clear role, and the Brewers have plenty of boom-or-bust types to make life interesting on Draft Day.

Breakout: Yovani Gallardo, SP

Gallardo made a name for himself last year when he started 30 games and struck out 204 batters. But he didn't break out as that ace everyone expected him to become, primarily because he struggled with walks for the first time in his career. It got so bad that by the second half, he was walking more than one batter every two innings, which goes a long way toward explaining his 4.56 ERA during that stretch. Still, few pitchers have the talent to strike out 10 batters per nine innings, and considering Gallardo threw a career high 185 2/3 innings one year after barely throwing at all because of a knee injury, his command issues make sense. Now stretched out and rested up, he's one of those top-25 options who has the capacity to reach the top 10.

Bust: Alcides Escobar, SS

A fine line separates busts from sleepers, and Escobar straddles it as much as any player can. In some leagues, he might actually be a sleeper, but as a high-profile rookie at one of the weakest positions in Fantasy, he'll get more attention than he deserves on Draft Day. The fact is he has yet to develop any power at age 23 and doesn't walk enough to make full use of his speed. He might steal 30 bases, but those on their own don't measure up to the well-rounded numbers an Asdrubal Cabrera or Erick Aybar can give you, at least not in Head-to-Head leagues. Of course, prospects of Escobar's pedigree sometimes take big leaps forward, which makes him worth a late-round gamble. But with so many owners desperate to find that next great shortstop, someone will reach for him in the middle rounds.

Sleeper: Casey McGehee, 3B

Again, it's a fine line, but already McGehee looks like one of those players who has so few people believing in him that he actually becomes a sleeper. He can't be a bust if nobody wants him, and nobody seems to want him even though he hit 16 homers in 355 at-bats, qualifies at second base and continues to hold off top prospect Mat Gamel for at-bats. Sure, he came out of nowhere, but his breakthrough began in spring training and continued throughout the season. If he was masquerading as someone else, he kept it going for a full seven months. Granted, he might hit .200 in April, lose his job to Gamel and never again matter in mixed leagues, but surely the chance of him hitting 25 homers makes him a better late-round pick than vanilla options like Placido Polanco and Alberto Callaspo.

Milwaukee Brewers Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Rickie Weeks 2B 1 Yovani Gallardo RH
2 Alcides Escobar SS 2 Randy Wolf LH
3 Ryan J. Braun LF 3 Doug Davis LH
4 Prince Fielder 1B 4 Jeff Suppan RH
5 Casey McGehee 3B 5 Manny Parra LH
6 Corey C. Hart RF Alt Dave Bush RH
7 Carlos Gomez CF Top bullpen arms
8 Gregg Zaun C CL Trevor Hoffman RH
Top bench options SU LaTroy Hawkins RH
R Mat Gamel 3B RP Todd Coffey RH
R Jody Gerut OF RP Claudio Vargas RH
R Craig Counsell INF RP Mitch Stetter LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Alcides Escobar 23 SS Majors Majors
Speedster ready to play every day. More Elvis Andrus than Jose B. Reyes right now, but could emerge quickly.
2 Mat Gamel 24 3B Majors Majors
Power hitter was clear 3B of future. Now will have to change positions or wait for McGehee to fail.
3 Jonathan LuCroy 23 C Double-A Triple-A
Patient hitter has passed Angel Salome as organization's top catching prospect. Up by midseason?
4 Brett Lawrie 20 2B Double-A Class A
Power-hitting 2B should progress quickly. Brewers can take their time with him because of Weeks.
5 Mark Rogers 24 SP Class A Double-A
Former first-rounder finally emerging after several shoulder surgeries. Age should help him advance.
Best of the rest: Jeremy Jeffress, SP; Amaury Rivas, SP; Caleb Gindl, OF; Angel Salome, C; Trent Oeltjen, OF; Charles Lofgren, SP; Cutter Dykstra, OF; Taylor Green, 3B; Tim Dillard, SP; Josh J. Butler, SP; Cody Scarpetta, SP; Jake Odorizzi, SP; Eric Arnett, SP; Zach Braddock, RP; Lorenzo Cain, OF; Kentrail Davis, OF; Kyle Heckathorn, SP; Alex Periard, SP; Lee Haydel, OF; Nick A. Green, SP; Brent Brewer, SS; R.J. Seidel, RP; Setch Lintz, SP; Omar Aguilar, SP; Brooks Hall, SP; Logan Schafer, OF; Joe Koshansky, OF; and Evan Anundsen, RP.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Andrew Cashner
Cashner just wants to stay healthy
Andrew Cashner, SP, SD
11:56 AM
News: San Diego RP Andrew Cashner only has one goal in mind when it comes to the 2012 season with his new team the Padres, reports MLB.com. Cashner wants to remain healthy. Cashner said he's never been more excited to begin a season. "Last year ... it was what it was," said Cashner, who is expected to serve as the Padres' eighth-inning specialist, setting up new closer Huston Street. "I've really put in a lot of work during the offseason, getting ready."
Analysis: Cashner opened last season as the Cubs' fifth starter and did mention he'd like to one day return to starting games. Still, his primary goal in 2012 in staying healthy and contributing and he'll best do that out of the bullpen at the back end. "Down the road, I do want to start and they've [the Padres] told me I'll get that chance," he said. "But now, I just want to stay healthy and pitch." Cashner would have been an intriguing late-round Fantasy sleeper given the chance to start. But now that he is headed for a relief role, possibly as a setup man for closer Huston Street, then Cashner has marginal Fantasy appeal on Draft Day.

J.P. Arencibia
A wiser Arencibia in 2012
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR
11:51 AM
News: Toronto C J.P. Arencibia will be much wiser and more prepared when he gets to spring training, reports MLB.com on Friday. Arencibia, who was able to set the franchise record for home runs by a catcher last year with 23 over 129 games to go with 78 RBI, will better know what to expect this time around. "Another year of experience gives you the comfort of, 'This is my staff, these are the guys I'm going to work with, this is my job,'" Arencibia said recently. "It's been the year I've been most motivated ever to just get better in the offseason, training as hard as I've ever trained, to just get ready for the whole season."
Analysis: Arencibia did well enough in 2011, hitting 23 home runs despite a .219 batting average. He drove in 78 runs and had an OPS of .720. Arencibia threw out 17.1 percent of potential stealers, but his throwing showed some improvement later in the season. He opens the 2012 season as the No. 1 catcher again and has a full season of major league experience to draw on in 2012. We definitely have faith in the 26-year-old backstop. His power potential goes a long way at catcher. However, until he starts providing better numbers across the board, then Arencibia is more of a low-end Fantasy starter on Draft Day. You would be surprised at how much deeper the catcher position is getting in Fantasy.

A.J. Burnett
Burnett market is heating up
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/11/2012
News: FOXSports.com reports that four teams are now interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, including the Pirates, who have been in trade negotiations over the righty for the last three days. The Pirates are still the Yankees' preferred trading partner, though ESPN.com reports that the two sides are still in dispute over how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees should pay and which players Pittsburgh would give up. One of the four teams vying for Burnett is on his "no-trade list," though that team has not been identified.
Analysis: While the Yankees and Pirates are not close to making a deal, several sources have reported that there is a good chance that the sides will come to an agreement before the start of the regular season. A move to the National League will probably have a positive impact on Burnett's stats, but ultimately, he would still be too big of a risk to draft in standard mixed leagues.

Mike Napoli
Napoli avoids arbitration
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/11/2012
News: Texas C Mike Napoli agreed to a one-year, $9.4 million contract with the Rangers on Saturday to avoid an arbitration hearing, according to ESPN.com. Napoli, who is recovering from a left ankle injury, posted career highs in home runs (30) and RBI (75) last season.
Analysis: Napoli's injury could limit him during the early part of spring training, but he is not expected to miss any time during the regular season. Napoli enjoyed a career year during his first campaign with the Rangers and topped 20 homers for the fourth consecutive season. He will likely earn more starts at catcher this season and should be considered a solid C option in the early rounds of most 2012 Fantasy drafts.

Manny Ramirez
Field of Ramirez suitors shrinks by one
Manny Ramirez, DH, TB
2/11/2012
News: MASN.com reports that the Orioles have decided not to pursue free agent DH Manny Ramirez. Baltimore had been one of three teams, along with Oakland and Toronto, who had been considering the 39-year-old. "I don't think there's going to be a fit for Manny," executive vice president Dan Duquette said. "We've looked at that all winter and I'm not sure there's a fit there for the Orioles. I wish Manny a lot of luck, but I just don't think he fits in our ballclub right now." The team has recently signed free agents Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson, both of whom could contend for the DH spot, lessening the need to sign Ramirez.
Analysis: The Orioles now have other potential designated hitters to turn to, and Ramirez comes with a 50-game PED suspension, so he is not an attractive option. With the A's and Blue Jays still in play, though, Ramirez still has a chance to be relevant in AL-only leagues this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson smooths out his delivery
Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
2/11/2012
News: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves SP Tommy Hanson has worked this offseason to alter his pitching delivery in the hopes that it will make him less prone to injury. Hanson missed most of the final two months of last season due to a shoulder injury, and his health issues were attributed, at least in part, to a hitch in his delivery. He has worked with pitching coach Roger McDowell on a new, smoother delivery over the last six weeks, which should shift some of the stress of his throwing motion to his lower body. In addition to reducing the impact on his arm and shoulder, the more compact delivery should help Hanson to reduce the number of stolen bases off of him.
Analysis: We have yet to see how well Hanson will pitch in a game with his new delivery, but if it can make him more durable and prevent steals, it will enhance his already-robust Fantasy value. Even with health concerns, Hanson profiles as a low-end No. 2 SP, and if his new delivery works out, he could produce at an even higher level.

Jason Varitek
Varitek getting some interest
Jason Varitek, C, BOS
2/11/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that free agent C Jason Varitek has received some interest from teams this offseason, and he will soon decide whether to play in 2012. The Red Sox, for whom Varitek has played his entire 15-year major league career, are among the teams interested. Retirement is a possible option for the 39-year-old.
Analysis: Varitek has played in just 107 games over the last two seasons, so even if he decides to play one more year, he is unlikely to be a factor in most Fantasy leagues. He does still have some pop in his bat, though, so owners in deep formats should stay tuned to see what Varitek decides.

Brandon Gomes
Gomes recovering from back surgery
Brandon Gomes, RP, TB
2/11/2012
News: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Rays RP Brandon Gomes continues to recover from back surgery that he underwent in November, and he is at risk of missing the beginning of spring training. Gomes had the procedure to clean out the area around a disc, and he is still probably at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound. "Right now it's progressing along great, I don't really see anything to be concerned about," Gomes told reporters on Friday. "I might miss the very beginning of spring training, but that's about it." Gomes could still be ready for the beginning of the regular season.
Analysis: Gomes pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 40 games with the Rays. He will probably fill a middle relief role for Tampa Bay again this season. A good strikeout pitcher, Gomes is a low-end option for owners in leagues that use middle relievers.

Cody Ross
Ross re-working his swing
Cody Ross, LF, BOS
2/11/2012
News: Red Sox OF Cody Ross was disappointed with his 2011 season, in which he batted just .240 for the Giants, but he told WEEI.com that he is making some changes in order perform better in 2012. Ross watched video from his performances last year and noticed some adjustments that he needed to make at the plate. Specifically, Ross said he is "really focusing on just driving the ball and staying on top of the ball as opposed to swinging with more of an upper-cut." Ross started to address these changes late last season, working with former Giants teammate Carlos Beltran.
Analysis: Ross' flyball rate skyrocketed to 48 percent last season, resulting in a high percentage of flyouts, which put a damper on his batting average. Not only could his new approach to hitting help him to cut back on those easy outs, but it could pay big dividends in doubles-friendly Fenway Park. Ross lacks a regular position, but between filling in for injured Carl Crawford (wrist) early in the year and spelling Ryan Sweeney in right field, he could put together a decent amount of playing time. Look to Ross as a solid option in AL-only leagues.

Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera shedding weight for move to 3B
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
2/10/2012
News: Tigers C Alex Avila told ESPN.com on Friday that Miguel Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this offseason in anticipation of his move to third base. Cabrera, who played first base each of the last few seasons, is moving to the hot corner with Prince Fielder signing with Detroit in the offseason. Cabrera batted .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 2011.
Analysis: Cabrera came up as an infielder and has shown in the past that he can play the hot corner. His size has been one of the bigger question marks on whether or not he can last an entire season at third base so shedding some weight should help the process. Good thing for Fantasy owners is that his defense will not affect on his value, and he should continue to mash at the plate for Detroit. Add to the fact that he will gain duel eligibility and owners should target Cabrera as a Top 5 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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