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Eric Mack

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The Pirates are perpetually rebuilding and annually the only sixth-place team in baseball. They are equally an afterthought in Fantasy, but you should weed through the trash to find some late-round treasures this spring.

We try our best to do so here.

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Breakout: Andrew McCutchen, PIT

When writing this Pirates team outlook, we originally thought about making McCutchen a bust instead of a breakout. You have to be touted to even be considered a candidate to be either, so we tried to knock the highest-ranked Pirate in our Top 300. McCutchen checked in at No. 160. We concluded the sophomore McCutchen is just too talented to not outperform his draft position and continue to get better -- even if he is a raw 23 years old. We project a modest .263-15-65-88-30 campaign for him, but we could easily see a .290-20-75-90-35 line. He is a gem in Rotisserie leagues, even if his power (he hits a ton of triples) doesn't translate into homers in his first full season in the majors.

Bust: Garrett Jones, 1B/OF

First, we have to say: Jones is a potential sleeper as much as a potential bust. The problem is so many Fantasy owners are going to be looking at Jones' 21 homers and 10 steals in just over half a season a year ago and expect a full season of those performance rates. Jones, a 27-year-old breakout a year ago, has been a good player in the minor leagues, just not a great one. There is the potential of a bust if you expect more than our optimistic projections of .261-37-75-55-10. It will be very, very interesting to observe the range of his draft position this spring and watch him through his first full season in the major leagues. That is unless the likes of Jeff Clement, Steve Pearce, Brandon Moss, Ryan Church and perhaps prospect Pedro Alvarez don't push him back to a part-time role before the end of 2010.

Sleeper: Andy LaRoche, 3B

LaRoche was once one of the elite third base prospects in baseball, getting touted just behind the likes of Ryan J. Braun and Evan Longoria just a few years ago. His first full season with the Pirates last year made him look a lot more like Alex Gordon than those other two, though. It is far too early to give up on the brother of Adam LaRoche (son of former pitcher Dave LaRoche). Heck, Andy LaRoche turns 27 later this season. Sure, you can point to the expected mid-to-late 2010 arrival or Pedro Alvarez and see LaRoche losing his job, but a funny thing can happen to a talented young player who gets challenged and/or summarily dismissed: They tend to find themselves in a hurry. We see LaRoche doing that this year as a great NL-only sleeper and in-season waiver pick-up in mixed leagues.

Honorable mention: Jeff Clement retains catcher eligibility as his primary position on CBSSports.com. If he wins the starting first base job this spring, his power potential makes him a must-have catcher in mixed formats. Watch that situation very closely. He struggled with knee issues last year that ended his days as a catcher, but he was merely a DH in Triple-A last year and we couldn't list him at first base until he proves he can make that transition. His bat will play anywhere if he can get healthy and display his potential.

Pittsburgh Pirates Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Andrew McCutchen CF 1 Zach Duke LH
2 Akinori Iwamura 2B 2 Paul Maholm LH
3 Garrett Jones RF 3 Ross Ohlendorf RH
4 Ryan Doumit C 4 Daniel McCutchen RH
5 Andy LaRoche 3B 5 Charlie Morton RH
6 Lastings Milledge LF Alt Donnie Veal LH
7 Jeff Clement 1B Top bullpen arms
8 Ronny Cedeno SS CL Octavio Dotel RH
Top bench options SU Joel Hanrahan RH
R Bobby Crosby SS RP Kevin Hart RH
R Brandon Moss OF RP Evan Meek RH
R Ryan Church OF RP Brendan Donnelly RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Pedro Alvarez 23 3B Double-A Triple-A
Arguably the best slugger in the minor leagues will force his way into the lineup some time this year.
2 Timothy Alderson 21 RH SP Double-A Triple-A
The Pirates stole this pitching prospect at the trade deadline for now-injured "All-Star" Freddy Sanchez.
3 Brad Lincoln 24 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
He will compete for a rotation spot out of spring training, but the Pirates have time to be patient.
4 Daniel McCutchen 27 RH SP Majors Majors
We expect he will make the rotation out of spring training, which makes him a sleeper in NL-only formats.
5 Neil Walker 24 3B Triple-A Triple-A
He would be a lot more intriguing if the Pirates didn't switch him from being a catcher.
Best of the rest: Jose Tabata, OF; Gorkys Hernandez, OF; Daniel Moskos, SP; Rudy Owens, SP; Tony Sanchez, C; Chase D'Arnaud, SS; Starling Marte, OF; Zack Von Rosenberg, SP; Aaron Pribanc, SP; Jeff Sues, SP; Jeff Locke, SP; Brett Lorin, SP; Jarek Cunningham, 3B; Kyle Bloom, SP; Victor Black, SP; Brooks Pounders, SP; Bryan Morris, SP; Ronald Uviedo, RP; Evan Chambers, OF; Zack Dodson, SP; Shelby Ford, 2B; Nate Baker, SP; Matt Hague, 1B; Justin Wilson, SP; Josh Harrison, 3B; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, SP; Brian Friday, SS; Robbie Grossman, OF; Nathan Adcock, SP; Nelson Pereira, SP; Wes Freeman, OF; Jim Negrych, 3B; and Steve Lerud, C.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Andrew Cashner
Cashner just wants to stay healthy
Andrew Cashner, SP, SD
11:56 AM
News: San Diego RP Andrew Cashner only has one goal in mind when it comes to the 2012 season with his new team the Padres, reports MLB.com. Cashner wants to remain healthy. Cashner said he's never been more excited to begin a season. "Last year ... it was what it was," said Cashner, who is expected to serve as the Padres' eighth-inning specialist, setting up new closer Huston Street. "I've really put in a lot of work during the offseason, getting ready."
Analysis: Cashner opened last season as the Cubs' fifth starter and did mention he'd like to one day return to starting games. Still, his primary goal in 2012 in staying healthy and contributing and he'll best do that out of the bullpen at the back end. "Down the road, I do want to start and they've [the Padres] told me I'll get that chance," he said. "But now, I just want to stay healthy and pitch." Cashner would have been an intriguing late-round Fantasy sleeper given the chance to start. But now that he is headed for a relief role, possibly as a setup man for closer Huston Street, then Cashner has marginal Fantasy appeal on Draft Day.

J.P. Arencibia
A wiser Arencibia in 2012
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR
11:51 AM
News: Toronto C J.P. Arencibia will be much wiser and more prepared when he gets to spring training, reports MLB.com on Friday. Arencibia, who was able to set the franchise record for home runs by a catcher last year with 23 over 129 games to go with 78 RBI, will better know what to expect this time around. "Another year of experience gives you the comfort of, 'This is my staff, these are the guys I'm going to work with, this is my job,'" Arencibia said recently. "It's been the year I've been most motivated ever to just get better in the offseason, training as hard as I've ever trained, to just get ready for the whole season."
Analysis: Arencibia did well enough in 2011, hitting 23 home runs despite a .219 batting average. He drove in 78 runs and had an OPS of .720. Arencibia threw out 17.1 percent of potential stealers, but his throwing showed some improvement later in the season. He opens the 2012 season as the No. 1 catcher again and has a full season of major league experience to draw on in 2012. We definitely have faith in the 26-year-old backstop. His power potential goes a long way at catcher. However, until he starts providing better numbers across the board, then Arencibia is more of a low-end Fantasy starter on Draft Day. You would be surprised at how much deeper the catcher position is getting in Fantasy.

A.J. Burnett
Burnett market is heating up
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/11/2012
News: FOXSports.com reports that four teams are now interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, including the Pirates, who have been in trade negotiations over the righty for the last three days. The Pirates are still the Yankees' preferred trading partner, though ESPN.com reports that the two sides are still in dispute over how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees should pay and which players Pittsburgh would give up. One of the four teams vying for Burnett is on his "no-trade list," though that team has not been identified.
Analysis: While the Yankees and Pirates are not close to making a deal, several sources have reported that there is a good chance that the sides will come to an agreement before the start of the regular season. A move to the National League will probably have a positive impact on Burnett's stats, but ultimately, he would still be too big of a risk to draft in standard mixed leagues.

Mike Napoli
Napoli avoids arbitration
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/11/2012
News: Texas C Mike Napoli agreed to a one-year, $9.4 million contract with the Rangers on Saturday to avoid an arbitration hearing, according to ESPN.com. Napoli, who is recovering from a left ankle injury, posted career highs in home runs (30) and RBI (75) last season.
Analysis: Napoli's injury could limit him during the early part of spring training, but he is not expected to miss any time during the regular season. Napoli enjoyed a career year during his first campaign with the Rangers and topped 20 homers for the fourth consecutive season. He will likely earn more starts at catcher this season and should be considered a solid C option in the early rounds of most 2012 Fantasy drafts.

Manny Ramirez
Field of Ramirez suitors shrinks by one
Manny Ramirez, DH, TB
2/11/2012
News: MASN.com reports that the Orioles have decided not to pursue free agent DH Manny Ramirez. Baltimore had been one of three teams, along with Oakland and Toronto, who had been considering the 39-year-old. "I don't think there's going to be a fit for Manny," executive vice president Dan Duquette said. "We've looked at that all winter and I'm not sure there's a fit there for the Orioles. I wish Manny a lot of luck, but I just don't think he fits in our ballclub right now." The team has recently signed free agents Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson, both of whom could contend for the DH spot, lessening the need to sign Ramirez.
Analysis: The Orioles now have other potential designated hitters to turn to, and Ramirez comes with a 50-game PED suspension, so he is not an attractive option. With the A's and Blue Jays still in play, though, Ramirez still has a chance to be relevant in AL-only leagues this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson smooths out his delivery
Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
2/11/2012
News: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves SP Tommy Hanson has worked this offseason to alter his pitching delivery in the hopes that it will make him less prone to injury. Hanson missed most of the final two months of last season due to a shoulder injury, and his health issues were attributed, at least in part, to a hitch in his delivery. He has worked with pitching coach Roger McDowell on a new, smoother delivery over the last six weeks, which should shift some of the stress of his throwing motion to his lower body. In addition to reducing the impact on his arm and shoulder, the more compact delivery should help Hanson to reduce the number of stolen bases off of him.
Analysis: We have yet to see how well Hanson will pitch in a game with his new delivery, but if it can make him more durable and prevent steals, it will enhance his already-robust Fantasy value. Even with health concerns, Hanson profiles as a low-end No. 2 SP, and if his new delivery works out, he could produce at an even higher level.

Jason Varitek
Varitek getting some interest
Jason Varitek, C, BOS
2/11/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that free agent C Jason Varitek has received some interest from teams this offseason, and he will soon decide whether to play in 2012. The Red Sox, for whom Varitek has played his entire 15-year major league career, are among the teams interested. Retirement is a possible option for the 39-year-old.
Analysis: Varitek has played in just 107 games over the last two seasons, so even if he decides to play one more year, he is unlikely to be a factor in most Fantasy leagues. He does still have some pop in his bat, though, so owners in deep formats should stay tuned to see what Varitek decides.

Brandon Gomes
Gomes recovering from back surgery
Brandon Gomes, RP, TB
2/11/2012
News: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Rays RP Brandon Gomes continues to recover from back surgery that he underwent in November, and he is at risk of missing the beginning of spring training. Gomes had the procedure to clean out the area around a disc, and he is still probably at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound. "Right now it's progressing along great, I don't really see anything to be concerned about," Gomes told reporters on Friday. "I might miss the very beginning of spring training, but that's about it." Gomes could still be ready for the beginning of the regular season.
Analysis: Gomes pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 40 games with the Rays. He will probably fill a middle relief role for Tampa Bay again this season. A good strikeout pitcher, Gomes is a low-end option for owners in leagues that use middle relievers.

Cody Ross
Ross re-working his swing
Cody Ross, LF, BOS
2/11/2012
News: Red Sox OF Cody Ross was disappointed with his 2011 season, in which he batted just .240 for the Giants, but he told WEEI.com that he is making some changes in order perform better in 2012. Ross watched video from his performances last year and noticed some adjustments that he needed to make at the plate. Specifically, Ross said he is "really focusing on just driving the ball and staying on top of the ball as opposed to swinging with more of an upper-cut." Ross started to address these changes late last season, working with former Giants teammate Carlos Beltran.
Analysis: Ross' flyball rate skyrocketed to 48 percent last season, resulting in a high percentage of flyouts, which put a damper on his batting average. Not only could his new approach to hitting help him to cut back on those easy outs, but it could pay big dividends in doubles-friendly Fenway Park. Ross lacks a regular position, but between filling in for injured Carl Crawford (wrist) early in the year and spelling Ryan Sweeney in right field, he could put together a decent amount of playing time. Look to Ross as a solid option in AL-only leagues.

Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera shedding weight for move to 3B
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
2/10/2012
News: Tigers C Alex Avila told ESPN.com on Friday that Miguel Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this offseason in anticipation of his move to third base. Cabrera, who played first base each of the last few seasons, is moving to the hot corner with Prince Fielder signing with Detroit in the offseason. Cabrera batted .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 2011.
Analysis: Cabrera came up as an infielder and has shown in the past that he can play the hot corner. His size has been one of the bigger question marks on whether or not he can last an entire season at third base so shedding some weight should help the process. Good thing for Fantasy owners is that his defense will not affect on his value, and he should continue to mash at the plate for Detroit. Add to the fact that he will gain duel eligibility and owners should target Cabrera as a Top 5 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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