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Eric Mack

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Tampa Bay Rays

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


There has been a lot to like about the Rays system top to bottom the past few years and it shouldn't stop. It promises to get exponentially better.

They boast a strong young rotation that could match up with anyone in baseball and have a bunch of hitters that still haven't reached their physical peak. The addition of anticipated closer Rafael Soriano shouldn't go unnoticed either.

If pitching wins, particularly young pitching, the Rays are going to be a lot closer to their 2008 pennant-winning form than their disappointing 2009. David Price is still very wet behind the ears as a pro, much less as a major leaguer and Fantasy gem. Wade Davis could be a favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, while some big-time prospects in Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, Jake McGee and Reid Brignac will either be midseason catalysts or trade bait.

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They aren't loaded like the Yankees or Red Sox with big-ticket guys, but we learned in 2008 that tends to turn on a dime. Tampa Bay isn't deep in the pockets, but they're deep in the prospects.

This is a wealth of resources for Fantasy owners in all leagues, perhaps even more than those large market clubs since the Rays still have yet to maximize their potential.

Breakout: B.J. Upton, OF

Hopefully we won't have to pick him here again. Upton has shown immense first-round-type potential from time to time, posting career highs in the Rotisserie categories of .300 average, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 86 runs and 44 steals. He also was the beast of the 2008 postseason before having shoulder surgery that sapped more than just his power last season. Still just 25 years old, Upton could finally put it all together this season. The fact he is coming off such a bad season could trump the fact he is one of the most-hyped young players in Fantasy, making him a relative bargain in the middle rounds on Draft Day.

Bust: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF

It is usually bad form to look at a 27-year-old breakout from a year ago and project him as a bust for the upcoming season. We will try to do it here. With position versatility, pop, steals, a high average, a high on-base percentage, Zobrist was a big-time Fantasy MVP in 2009, especially since he was a waiver pick-up in so many leagues. Now all that goobly goodness will be highly, highly sought on Draft Day. The hype is definitely warranted since it was a great year and he is in his prime. If he gets placed in the elite range of picks, though, you might be disappointed. Zobrist has good pop, but those expecting 27-plus homers could be disappointed. Heck, he had just 23 career homers in 1,336 minor league at-bats. Also, his steals were out of character. He didn't steal 17 bases in any one stop in the minor leagues. There is a lot to like about Zobrist, but just be wary of overrating one huge breakout year right away -- Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin-style.

Sleeper: Sean Rodriguez, 2B

Rodriguez might not look like much now -- unless you like to stare at Triple-A stats -- but he is this year's Zobrist in our eyes. He hit 29 homers in 365 at-bats in the minors last year, which could make him a huge sleeper if he forces Zobrist to right field out of spring training. Rodriguez won't be draftable in mixed leagues without a roster spot, much less a starting job, but we have a feeling he is going to be owned in all leagues by the time 2010 reaches the stretch run. If you don't stash him, watch him closely in spring training and the first part of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Jason Bartlett SS 1 James Shields RH
2 Carl Crawford LF 2 Matt Garza RH
3 Evan Longoria 3B 3 David Price LH
4 Carlos Pena 1B 4 Jeff Niemann RH
5 Ben Zobrist 2B 5 Wade Davis RH
6 B.J. Upton CF Alt Andy Sonnanstine RH
7 Pat Burrell DH Top bullpen arms
8 Matt Joyce RF CL Rafael Soriano RH
9 Dioner Navarro C SU J.P. Howell LH
Top bench options RP Dan Wheeler RH
R Willy Aybar UTL RP Grant Balfour RH
R Kelly Shoppach C RP Randy Choate LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Wade Davis 24 RH SP Majors Majors
Davis did enough down the stretch to have a rotation spot to lose going into spring training; he won't lose it.
2 Jeremy Hellickson 22 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
What Davis lacks in wow power, Hellickson makes up for it, but it's a crowded rotation in Tampa right now.
3 Desmond Jennings 23 OF Triple-A Triple-A
He could be a big-time June 1 guy if he doesn't surprise to make the team out of camp; an OF spot is open.
4 Matt Moore 20 LH SP Low Class A High Class A
The minors' most dominant pitcher could become the best prospect for 2011 with another similar season.
5 Tim Beckham 20 SS Low Class A Low Class A
The No. 1 overall pick in 2008 didn't impress in his first full season, but he has plenty of time to grow.
Best of the rest: Jake McGee, SP; Reid Brignac, SS; Alexander Colome, SP; Nick Barnese, SP; Matthew Sweeney, 3B; Fernando Perez, OF; K.D. Kang, OF; Alex Cobb, SP; Heath Rollins, RP; LeVon Washington, 2B; Aneury Rodriguez, SP; Jake Jefferies, DH; Mayobanez Acosta, C; John Jaso, C; Dale Thayer, RP; Kenneth Diekroeger, SS; Ty Morrison, OF; Alex J. Torres, RP; Kyle Lobstein, TB; Marcus Proctor, RP; Mike Sheridan, 1B; Joe Cruz, SP; Reid Fronk, OF; Todd Glaesmann, OF; Jason McEachern, SP; Albert Suarez, SP; Jake Jefferies, C; Ryan Royster, OF; Chris Luck, SP; Eduardo Morlan, RP; and Lucas Bailey, C.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
J.P. Arencibia
A wiser Arencibia in 2012
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR
11:51 AM
News: Toronto C J.P. Arencibia will be much wiser and more prepared when he gets to spring training, reports MLB.com on Friday. Arencibia, who was able to set the franchise record for home runs by a catcher last year with 23 over 129 games to go with 78 RBI, will better know what to expect this time around. "Another year of experience gives you the comfort of, 'This is my staff, these are the guys I'm going to work with, this is my job,'" Arencibia said recently. "It's been the year I've been most motivated ever to just get better in the offseason, training as hard as I've ever trained, to just get ready for the whole season."
Analysis: Arencibia did well enough in 2011, hitting 23 home runs despite a .219 batting average. He drove in 78 runs and had an OPS of .720. Arencibia threw out 17.1 percent of potential stealers, but his throwing showed some improvement later in the season. He opens the 2012 season as the No. 1 catcher again and has a full season of major league experience to draw on in 2012. We definitely have faith in the 26-year-old backstop. His power potential goes a long way at catcher. However, until he starts providing better numbers across the board, then Arencibia is more of a low-end Fantasy starter on Draft Day. You would be surprised at how much deeper the catcher position is getting in Fantasy.

A.J. Burnett
Burnett market is heating up
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/11/2012
News: FOXSports.com reports that four teams are now interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, including the Pirates, who have been in trade negotiations over the righty for the last three days. The Pirates are still the Yankees' preferred trading partner, though ESPN.com reports that the two sides are still in dispute over how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees should pay and which players Pittsburgh would give up. One of the four teams vying for Burnett is on his "no-trade list," though that team has not been identified.
Analysis: While the Yankees and Pirates are not close to making a deal, several sources have reported that there is a good chance that the sides will come to an agreement before the start of the regular season. A move to the National League will probably have a positive impact on Burnett's stats, but ultimately, he would still be too big of a risk to draft in standard mixed leagues.

Mike Napoli
Napoli avoids arbitration
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/11/2012
News: Texas C Mike Napoli agreed to a one-year, $9.4 million contract with the Rangers on Saturday to avoid an arbitration hearing, according to ESPN.com. Napoli, who is recovering from a left ankle injury, posted career highs in home runs (30) and RBI (75) last season.
Analysis: Napoli's injury could limit him during the early part of spring training, but he is not expected to miss any time during the regular season. Napoli enjoyed a career year during his first campaign with the Rangers and topped 20 homers for the fourth consecutive season. He will likely earn more starts at catcher this season and should be considered a solid C option in the early rounds of most 2012 Fantasy drafts.

Manny Ramirez
Field of Ramirez suitors shrinks by one
Manny Ramirez, DH, TB
2/11/2012
News: MASN.com reports that the Orioles have decided not to pursue free agent DH Manny Ramirez. Baltimore had been one of three teams, along with Oakland and Toronto, who had been considering the 39-year-old. "I don't think there's going to be a fit for Manny," executive vice president Dan Duquette said. "We've looked at that all winter and I'm not sure there's a fit there for the Orioles. I wish Manny a lot of luck, but I just don't think he fits in our ballclub right now." The team has recently signed free agents Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson, both of whom could contend for the DH spot, lessening the need to sign Ramirez.
Analysis: The Orioles now have other potential designated hitters to turn to, and Ramirez comes with a 50-game PED suspension, so he is not an attractive option. With the A's and Blue Jays still in play, though, Ramirez still has a chance to be relevant in AL-only leagues this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson smooths out his delivery
Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
2/11/2012
News: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves SP Tommy Hanson has worked this offseason to alter his pitching delivery in the hopes that it will make him less prone to injury. Hanson missed most of the final two months of last season due to a shoulder injury, and his health issues were attributed, at least in part, to a hitch in his delivery. He has worked with pitching coach Roger McDowell on a new, smoother delivery over the last six weeks, which should shift some of the stress of his throwing motion to his lower body. In addition to reducing the impact on his arm and shoulder, the more compact delivery should help Hanson to reduce the number of stolen bases off of him.
Analysis: We have yet to see how well Hanson will pitch in a game with his new delivery, but if it can make him more durable and prevent steals, it will enhance his already-robust Fantasy value. Even with health concerns, Hanson profiles as a low-end No. 2 SP, and if his new delivery works out, he could produce at an even higher level.

Jason Varitek
Varitek getting some interest
Jason Varitek, C, BOS
2/11/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that free agent C Jason Varitek has received some interest from teams this offseason, and he will soon decide whether to play in 2012. The Red Sox, for whom Varitek has played his entire 15-year major league career, are among the teams interested. Retirement is a possible option for the 39-year-old.
Analysis: Varitek has played in just 107 games over the last two seasons, so even if he decides to play one more year, he is unlikely to be a factor in most Fantasy leagues. He does still have some pop in his bat, though, so owners in deep formats should stay tuned to see what Varitek decides.

Brandon Gomes
Gomes recovering from back surgery
Brandon Gomes, RP, TB
2/11/2012
News: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Rays RP Brandon Gomes continues to recover from back surgery that he underwent in November, and he is at risk of missing the beginning of spring training. Gomes had the procedure to clean out the area around a disc, and he is still probably at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound. "Right now it's progressing along great, I don't really see anything to be concerned about," Gomes told reporters on Friday. "I might miss the very beginning of spring training, but that's about it." Gomes could still be ready for the beginning of the regular season.
Analysis: Gomes pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 40 games with the Rays. He will probably fill a middle relief role for Tampa Bay again this season. A good strikeout pitcher, Gomes is a low-end option for owners in leagues that use middle relievers.

Cody Ross
Ross re-working his swing
Cody Ross, LF, BOS
2/11/2012
News: Red Sox OF Cody Ross was disappointed with his 2011 season, in which he batted just .240 for the Giants, but he told WEEI.com that he is making some changes in order perform better in 2012. Ross watched video from his performances last year and noticed some adjustments that he needed to make at the plate. Specifically, Ross said he is "really focusing on just driving the ball and staying on top of the ball as opposed to swinging with more of an upper-cut." Ross started to address these changes late last season, working with former Giants teammate Carlos Beltran.
Analysis: Ross' flyball rate skyrocketed to 48 percent last season, resulting in a high percentage of flyouts, which put a damper on his batting average. Not only could his new approach to hitting help him to cut back on those easy outs, but it could pay big dividends in doubles-friendly Fenway Park. Ross lacks a regular position, but between filling in for injured Carl Crawford (wrist) early in the year and spelling Ryan Sweeney in right field, he could put together a decent amount of playing time. Look to Ross as a solid option in AL-only leagues.

Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera shedding weight for move to 3B
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
2/10/2012
News: Tigers C Alex Avila told ESPN.com on Friday that Miguel Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this offseason in anticipation of his move to third base. Cabrera, who played first base each of the last few seasons, is moving to the hot corner with Prince Fielder signing with Detroit in the offseason. Cabrera batted .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 2011.
Analysis: Cabrera came up as an infielder and has shown in the past that he can play the hot corner. His size has been one of the bigger question marks on whether or not he can last an entire season at third base so shedding some weight should help the process. Good thing for Fantasy owners is that his defense will not affect on his value, and he should continue to mash at the plate for Detroit. Add to the fact that he will gain duel eligibility and owners should target Cabrera as a Top 5 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Sean White
White catches on with BoSox
Sean White, RP, COL
2/11/2012
News: The Red Sox signed RP Sean White to a minor-league deal on Friday. The right-hander posted a 5.68 ERA in 53 appearances in the minors for the Rockies last season.
Analysis: White has a career 4.16 ERA and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Even if he breaks camp with the big club, plan on ignore him in all Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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