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Eric Mack

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Tampa Bay Rays

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


There has been a lot to like about the Rays system top to bottom the past few years and it shouldn't stop. It promises to get exponentially better.

They boast a strong young rotation that could match up with anyone in baseball and have a bunch of hitters that still haven't reached their physical peak. The addition of anticipated closer Rafael Soriano shouldn't go unnoticed either.

If pitching wins, particularly young pitching, the Rays are going to be a lot closer to their 2008 pennant-winning form than their disappointing 2009. David Price is still very wet behind the ears as a pro, much less as a major leaguer and Fantasy gem. Wade Davis could be a favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, while some big-time prospects in Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, Jake McGee and Reid Brignac will either be midseason catalysts or trade bait.

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They aren't loaded like the Yankees or Red Sox with big-ticket guys, but we learned in 2008 that tends to turn on a dime. Tampa Bay isn't deep in the pockets, but they're deep in the prospects.

This is a wealth of resources for Fantasy owners in all leagues, perhaps even more than those large market clubs since the Rays still have yet to maximize their potential.

Breakout: B.J. Upton, OF

Hopefully we won't have to pick him here again. Upton has shown immense first-round-type potential from time to time, posting career highs in the Rotisserie categories of .300 average, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 86 runs and 44 steals. He also was the beast of the 2008 postseason before having shoulder surgery that sapped more than just his power last season. Still just 25 years old, Upton could finally put it all together this season. The fact he is coming off such a bad season could trump the fact he is one of the most-hyped young players in Fantasy, making him a relative bargain in the middle rounds on Draft Day.

Bust: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF

It is usually bad form to look at a 27-year-old breakout from a year ago and project him as a bust for the upcoming season. We will try to do it here. With position versatility, pop, steals, a high average, a high on-base percentage, Zobrist was a big-time Fantasy MVP in 2009, especially since he was a waiver pick-up in so many leagues. Now all that goobly goodness will be highly, highly sought on Draft Day. The hype is definitely warranted since it was a great year and he is in his prime. If he gets placed in the elite range of picks, though, you might be disappointed. Zobrist has good pop, but those expecting 27-plus homers could be disappointed. Heck, he had just 23 career homers in 1,336 minor league at-bats. Also, his steals were out of character. He didn't steal 17 bases in any one stop in the minor leagues. There is a lot to like about Zobrist, but just be wary of overrating one huge breakout year right away -- Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin-style.

Sleeper: Sean Rodriguez, 2B

Rodriguez might not look like much now -- unless you like to stare at Triple-A stats -- but he is this year's Zobrist in our eyes. He hit 29 homers in 365 at-bats in the minors last year, which could make him a huge sleeper if he forces Zobrist to right field out of spring training. Rodriguez won't be draftable in mixed leagues without a roster spot, much less a starting job, but we have a feeling he is going to be owned in all leagues by the time 2010 reaches the stretch run. If you don't stash him, watch him closely in spring training and the first part of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Jason Bartlett SS 1 James Shields RH
2 Carl Crawford LF 2 Matt Garza RH
3 Evan Longoria 3B 3 David Price LH
4 Carlos Pena 1B 4 Jeff Niemann RH
5 Ben Zobrist 2B 5 Wade Davis RH
6 B.J. Upton CF Alt Andy Sonnanstine RH
7 Pat Burrell DH Top bullpen arms
8 Matt Joyce RF CL Rafael Soriano RH
9 Dioner Navarro C SU J.P. Howell LH
Top bench options RP Dan Wheeler RH
R Willy Aybar UTL RP Grant Balfour RH
R Kelly Shoppach C RP Randy Choate LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Wade Davis 24 RH SP Majors Majors
Davis did enough down the stretch to have a rotation spot to lose going into spring training; he won't lose it.
2 Jeremy Hellickson 22 RH SP Triple-A Triple-A
What Davis lacks in wow power, Hellickson makes up for it, but it's a crowded rotation in Tampa right now.
3 Desmond Jennings 23 OF Triple-A Triple-A
He could be a big-time June 1 guy if he doesn't surprise to make the team out of camp; an OF spot is open.
4 Matt Moore 20 LH SP Low Class A High Class A
The minors' most dominant pitcher could become the best prospect for 2011 with another similar season.
5 Tim Beckham 20 SS Low Class A Low Class A
The No. 1 overall pick in 2008 didn't impress in his first full season, but he has plenty of time to grow.
Best of the rest: Jake McGee, SP; Reid Brignac, SS; Alexander Colome, SP; Nick Barnese, SP; Matthew Sweeney, 3B; Fernando Perez, OF; K.D. Kang, OF; Alex Cobb, SP; Heath Rollins, RP; LeVon Washington, 2B; Aneury Rodriguez, SP; Jake Jefferies, DH; Mayobanez Acosta, C; John Jaso, C; Dale Thayer, RP; Kenneth Diekroeger, SS; Ty Morrison, OF; Alex J. Torres, RP; Kyle Lobstein, TB; Marcus Proctor, RP; Mike Sheridan, 1B; Joe Cruz, SP; Reid Fronk, OF; Todd Glaesmann, OF; Jason McEachern, SP; Albert Suarez, SP; Jake Jefferies, C; Ryan Royster, OF; Chris Luck, SP; Eduardo Morlan, RP; and Lucas Bailey, C.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Josh Johnson
JJ continues to feel no discomfort
Josh Johnson, SP, MIA
3:09 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Marlins SP Josh Johnson arrived to the team's spring training complex in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 9, more than a week ahead of the Marlins reporting date for pitchers and catchers. Johnson, who has been throwing off a mound near his home in Las Vegas, threw his first bullpen session of the year in Florida on Feb. 10. He felt no discomfort and expects to be ready for the first workouts on Feb. 22. He made only nine starts last year because of shoulder issues.
Analysis: Any encouraging news regarding JJ is welcomed. But Fantasy owners do have to be aware of the risk of drafting him. Of course his potential makes it worth it, but JJ has made it past 30 starts just once in his career. Look to Johnson as more of a No. 2 Fantasy SP on Draft Day, but clearly he has the potential to be your ace if he can stay healthy.

Denard Span
Span doing eye exercises
Denard Span, CF, MIN
3:14 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Twins OF Denard Span, recovering from a concussion and migraines that limited him last season, has been doing eye exercises this offseason. He works on a computer program. "I do it three or four times a week for about a half hour," he said. "It's just strengthening up my focus, keeping my eyes focused on the target, stuff like that. That's definitely been good."
Analysis: Despite the emergence of Ben Revere, the Twins are going to start Span in center field. They aren't letting one injury-plagued season cost Span his starting job. That's the good news. Now, Span has to get his career back on track. Span won't get you a lot of homers or RBI, but he could hit for a decent average, score some runs and steal some bases. Look to Span as a late-round Fantasy option, with a little more value in Rotisserie formats.

Nate Adcock
Adcock to compete for rotation spot
Nate Adcock, RP, KC
3:06 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Nate Adcock was with the Royals last season after being a Rule 5 draft pick from the Pirates. Adcock, who made three spot starts and mostly worked in long relief, will be a rotation candidate in spring training. He went to the Arizona Fall League to throw more innings. Adcock, however, could go back to the minors if he fails to land a job in March. He had not pitched above Class A before last season.
Analysis: Adcock went 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA in six starts in the Arizona Fall League. His most encouraging stat line was his 23 strikeouts to four walks in 24 1/3 innings. Adcock was never a dominant pitcher in the minors, so even if he wins a rotation spot this spring, consider him at best an AL-only Fantasy option.

Jacob Turner
Tigers still evaluating Turner
Jacob Turner, SP, DET
2:59 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Jacob Turner might have the highest ceiling among the handful of candidates for Detroit's vacant fifth starter spot, but prudence might dictate he smooth out some rough edges for a half-season in the minors. GM Dave Dombrowski recently cited lefties Andy Oliver, Drew Smyly, Duane Below, Casey Crosby and Adam Wilk as among the contenders for the rotation along with Turner, who would make it an all-right-handed starting staff were he to emerge this spring. "I feel comfortable if Below or Wilk were the No. 5 starter, that they could do a job for us out there," Dombrowski said. "But unless something really surprises me, they don't have the overall upside of a Jacob Turner, who I'm not really sure is ready or not. I don't know if we'll know that until we get down there (to Florida), see him perform and also see some of those other guys perform."
Analysis: Turner had some command issues and didn't pitch off his fastball enough in three cameo starts for the Tigers last season, but the most glaring fault was an inability to stop even the slowest runners from stealing bases on him. "First of all, (Turner) has quality stuff and is going to be a tremendous big-league pitcher," Dombrowski said. "I don't have a question about that. This guy is really good. But last year, if you were watching us at the big-league level, you would have said, 'There's no way this guy could be ready.' I've seen guys who get a cup of coffee at the big league level, guys for whom the game moved real fast. And they come back to pitch very well. But I'm interested in seeing where some of those young guys are in their development, and whether they can step forward to do the job." Turner could be worth a late-round Fantasy flier in deeper formats on Draft Day, so continue to track his progress.

Drew Smyly
Smyly has Tigers smiling
Drew Smyly, SP, DET
2:56 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports SP prospect Drew Smyly, Detroit's second choice in the 2010 draft, has a solid chance to make the Tigers' roster in a multi-pitcher battle for the club's fifth rotation spot. GM Dave Dombrowski tagged Smyly, who pitched better at Double-A than he did in high Class A, is "one guy I'm interested in seeing because I've not seen much of him. He's only been in the organization one year, but some people in our minor league system feel he's ready to pitch in the big leagues right now."
Analysis: Smyly was 7-3 with a 2.58 ERA for Lakeland (Class A), then went 4-3 with a 1.18 ERA in eight games for Erie (Double-A). "He not only pitched well in the minors last year," Dombrowski said, "but he went to international competition (Pan American Games) and was the No. 1 pitcher on that team. In general, when you look at guys who've been successful in international competition, the majority of them end up pitching in the big leagues the next year." Although he has just one minor-league season under his belt, Smyly could move fast because he is more polished than a high-school draftee since he pitched in the SEC. The only real concern is that Smyly has had health issues in the past, but it appears his talent might get him to the majors sooner than many may think. He remains a viable long-term Fantasy keeper, but if he wins a rotation spot out of camp, then consider Smyly more of an AL-only Fantasy option to start his career.

Michael Brantley
Brantley considered starting LF
Michael Brantley, LF, CLE
2:48 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports OF Michael Brantley will go to training camp as the starter in left field, according to manager Manny Acta. Brantley finished the 2011 season on the disabled list because of a hand injury that resulted in surgery on Aug. 23 to remove a broken hamate bone in his right hand. Acta said Brantley will be ready to resume baseball activities in spring training.
Analysis: In 451 at bats last year, Brantley batted .266 with seven home runs, 46 RBI and 13 stolen bases. Brantley was a good contact hitter in the minors, but he never really hit for power. He had some speed on the base paths, which he could provide for Fantasy owners. But we aren't sure yet how much offensive upside he has, so consider Brantley at best a late-round Fantasy flier in mixed leagues.

Billy Hamilton
Hamilton to remain at SS
Billy Hamilton, SS, CIN
2:45 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Reds prospect Billy Hamilton will continue to play exclusively as shortstop this season. Hamilton played some second base his first two years in the organization. "Good shortstops are hard to find," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said.
Analysis: With Hamilton's speed, Fantasy owners wish he was in the majors this season. However, he hasn't played past Class A, so Hamilton still has some work to do before making it to the majors. The Reds are going to give Zack Cozart his chance to start at shortstop in 2012, and if we are lucky, we might see Hamilton when rosters expand in September. He totaled 103 stolen bases in 2011 and has 165 stolen bases in 247 minor-league games. Hamilton remains a long-term Fantasy keeper.

Jorge De La Rosa
Rockies won't 'push' De La Rosa
Jorge De La Rosa, SP, COL
2:38 PM
News: The Denver Post reports while the Rockies are pleased with Jorge De La Rosa's progress, they will continue to be cautious with him. De La Rosa, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery last summer, is already throwing in bullpen sessions. "He is way ahead, but we are not going to push him," GM Dan O'Dowd said. "There's a difference between being ahead and being major-league sharp. Our goal is not just getting De La Rosa back to the big leagues, our goal is getting De La Rosa back to where he can get outs at the big-league level."
Analysis: De La Rosa is expected to progress to facing live hitters in mid-March, as long as he avoids all setbacks. When camp breaks, De La Rosa will stay in extended spring training and continue his rehab by working against minor league hitters. Trainer Keith Dugger said that if all goes well, De La Rosa could begin a 30-day minor league rehab assignment in late April or May. De La Rosa, who will be 31 on April 5, went 34-24 for the Rockies with a 4.49 ERA and 434 strikeouts in 436 2/3 innings since being obtained from the Royals in April 2008. De La Rosa is merely a draft-and-stash option on Draft Day.

Todd Helton
Helton admits 'days are numbered'
Todd Helton, 1B, COL
2:33 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Rockies 1B Todd Helton, 38, had a nice comeback season in 2011, hitting .302 with 14 homers and 69 RBI in 124 games along with a .385 on-base percentage and .466 slugging percentage. Helton is under contract for two more seasons, at which point he will be 40. Regardless of whether he plays beyond 2013, Helton, who has had lower back soreness in recent seasons, knows his days on the field are winding down. "I try to enjoy it more," he said. "When you're not hurting out there, it's fun, but when you get older and you creak a little bit more, your body hurts a little bit more, and it's a young man's game. I realize my days are numbered, but I'm enjoying every one of them."
Analysis: The Rockies kept Jason Giambi in the fold, so he will continue to spell Helton, who played 124 games in 2011. We can't expect Helton to play a full season anymore and he even senses that. He still hits for a decent average and gets on base, but he doesn't have the power numbers to compete at such a deep Fantasy position. Leave Helton for the later rounds of deep Fantasy formats.

Rafael Betancourt
Betancourt ready for closer's job
Rafael Betancourt, RP, COL
2:28 PM
News: The Sports Xchange reports Rockies RP Rafael Betancourt will bring the same mindset to his new role this season. He will begin the year as the Rockies closer, the first time in his career Betancourt has ever began a season closing. He went 8 for 9 in save situations after he became the closer in August, taking over for the since-traded Huston Street when Street was on the disabled list. "Even when I started closing last year, I didn't change anything," Betancourt said. "I didn't change my routine or anything when I came to the games. I just try to get three outs or however many I need to finish the game. That's all that's in my mind. I'm not thinking about, 'Oh, I'm the closer now.' All I'm thinking about is going into the game and finishing.".
Analysis: In the past two seasons, Betancourt has an astounding strikeouts to walks ratio of 10.1 to 1 -- 162 strikeouts and 16 walks in 124 2/3 innings. He seems to have the makeup to be a dominant closer, but we will have to see how he handles the full-time role when the season begins. Consider Betancourt more of a No. 2 Fantasy RP on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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