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Eric Mack

2010 Fantasy outlooks: Boston Red Sox

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


When you are an annual contender, change doesn't tend to come in one fell swoop, but the Red Sox made one big addition to their rotation and a number of less-publicized adds to their lineup. It should all add up to a stronger pitching staff -- if that was possible -- and a deeper lineup.

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The Red Sox didn't get Roy Halladay to front their rotation, but the did add the next-best thing this winter by signing John Lackey from the Angels. It strengthens their position in the AL East and wild-card races, not to mention taking a chunk out of the team they always seem to be matched up against in the postseason (Anaheim).

Their lineup additions weren't as splashy this winter -- Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron -- but that trio gives some pop from the right side and, most importantly, was signed to improve a defense that ranked as one of the worst in the AL. That should help their pitchers post even better numbers in Fantasy.

Breakout: Clay Buchholz, SP

Interestingly, we choose a pitcher to break out that doesn't even have a rotation spot to call his own yet. The Red Sox figure to slot a veteran rotation ahead of him, but Buchholz is plenty talented enough to force their hand with him in their rotation. Tim Wakefield is old and coming off back surgery, so there is no guarantee he will be ready for the start of the season at this point. We can pretty much guarantee Wake won't make it through the entire season healthy, regardless. Because Buchholz could start the year in the bullpen or Triple-A, he could be as much of a sleeper as he is a breakout, but we believe the cream will rise to the top and Buchholz will be owned and a must-start in all Fantasy leagues before the year is through, if not out of the gate. If you don't like this breakout pick, try Jacoby Ellsbury on for size. He was a gem in the steals category, but he could add power as he matures and adds bulk to his wiry frame.

Bust: Marco Scutaro, SS

Scutaro got off to a great start last season, one that made him a waiver-wire gem and had him owned in all Fantasy leagues. That was a lot of smoke and mirrors, though. He is not as good as he showed and he wore down as the season wore on. The Red Sox will send Jed Lowrie to Triple-A to prove healthy and productive to start this season, but we see the Red Sox resorting to their longer-term option as the everyday shortstop before the end of the year. Scutaro, 34, was widely considered a super-utility man before posting a career year in 2009 and earning a free-agent deal with the Red Sox. Banking on more improvement out of a middle infielder in his mid-30s is a bad strategy in Fantasy, regardless of how intriguing his supporting cast and new home park is.

Sleeper: Adrian Beltre, 3B

It seems like ages ago when Beltre busted out with 48 homers and 121 RBI en route to a huge free-agent contract with the Mariners. He wound up being a busted-up has-been at age 29 a year ago. Fenway Park and this supporting cast should help revitalize him. After all, he is still listed at just 30 years old, believe it or not. Beltre is a late-round pick in mixed formats, but he could prove to be quite a find if he holds off Mike Lowell for everyday at-bats and proves capable of attacking the Green Monster from the right side of the plate as the Red Sox are banking he will.

Boston Red Sox Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LF 1 Josh Beckett RH
2 Dustin Pedroia 2B 2 Jon Lester LH
3 Victor Martinez C 3 John Lackey RH
4 Kevin Youkilis 1B 4 Daisuke Matsuzaka RH
5 David Ortiz DH 5 Tim Wakefield RH
6 J.D. Drew RF Alt Clay Buchholz RH
7 Adrian Beltre 3B Top bullpen arms
8 Mike Cameron CF CL Jonathan Papelbon RH
9 Marco Scutaro SS SU Daniel Bard RH
Top bench options RP Ramon Ramirez RH
R Jeremy Hermida OF RP Hideki Okajima LH
R Mike Lowell 3B RP Manny Delcarmen RH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Michael Bowden 23 RH SP Majors Triple-A
A great long-term rotation candidate, but there's no room right now; he'll start in Triple-A or the bullpen.
2 Junichi Tazawa 23 RH SP Majors Triple-A
He was impressive in his first full season in America and will be great rotation depth if the BoSox need him.
3 Ryan Westmoreland 19 OF Low Class A Low Class A
Baseball America chooses this long-term prospect as the best in their system, but he is a ways away.
4 Casey Kelly 20 RH SP High Class A Double-A
He has given up on playing SS, which should help his career take off; he could pitch in Boston this year.
5 Ryan Kalish 22 OF Double-A Triple-A
There is a case to be made for another OF here, but Kalish is younger and has more HR-SB potential.
Best of the rest: Josh Reddick, OF; Lars Anderson, 1B; Reymond Fuentes, OF; Anthony Rizzo, 1B; Jose Iglesias, SS; Derrik Gibson, 3B; Felix Doubront, SP; Kris Johnson, SP; Che-Hsuan Lin, OF; Aaron Bates, 1B; Michael Almanzar, 3B; Stolmy Pimentel, SP; Yamaico Navarro, SS; Kyle Weiland, SP; Oscar Tejeda, SS; Luis Exposito, C; William Wilson, SP; Brock Huntzinger, SP; Will Middlebrooks, 3B; Pete Hissey, OF; David Renfroe, SS; Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF; Stephen Fife, SP; Zach Daeges, OF; Mitch Dening, OF; Dustin Richardson, SP; Mark Wagner, C; and Richie Lentz, RP.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
J.P. Arencibia
A wiser Arencibia in 2012
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR
11:51 AM
News: Toronto C J.P. Arencibia will be much wiser and more prepared when he gets to spring training, reports MLB.com on Friday. Arencibia, who was able to set the franchise record for home runs by a catcher last year with 23 over 129 games to go with 78 RBI, will better know what to expect this time around. "Another year of experience gives you the comfort of, 'This is my staff, these are the guys I'm going to work with, this is my job,'" Arencibia said recently. "It's been the year I've been most motivated ever to just get better in the offseason, training as hard as I've ever trained, to just get ready for the whole season."
Analysis: Arencibia did well enough in 2011, hitting 23 home runs despite a .219 batting average. He drove in 78 runs and had an OPS of .720. Arencibia threw out 17.1 percent of potential stealers, but his throwing showed some improvement later in the season. He opens the 2012 season as the No. 1 catcher again and has a full season of major league experience to draw on in 2012. We definitely have faith in the 26-year-old backstop. His power potential goes a long way at catcher. However, until he starts providing better numbers across the board, then Arencibia is more of a low-end Fantasy starter on Draft Day. You would be surprised at how much deeper the catcher position is getting in Fantasy.

A.J. Burnett
Burnett market is heating up
A.J. Burnett, SP, NYY
2/11/2012
News: FOXSports.com reports that four teams are now interested in Yankees SP A.J. Burnett, including the Pirates, who have been in trade negotiations over the righty for the last three days. The Pirates are still the Yankees' preferred trading partner, though ESPN.com reports that the two sides are still in dispute over how much of Burnett's salary the Yankees should pay and which players Pittsburgh would give up. One of the four teams vying for Burnett is on his "no-trade list," though that team has not been identified.
Analysis: While the Yankees and Pirates are not close to making a deal, several sources have reported that there is a good chance that the sides will come to an agreement before the start of the regular season. A move to the National League will probably have a positive impact on Burnett's stats, but ultimately, he would still be too big of a risk to draft in standard mixed leagues.

Mike Napoli
Napoli avoids arbitration
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
2/11/2012
News: Texas C Mike Napoli agreed to a one-year, $9.4 million contract with the Rangers on Saturday to avoid an arbitration hearing, according to ESPN.com. Napoli, who is recovering from a left ankle injury, posted career highs in home runs (30) and RBI (75) last season.
Analysis: Napoli's injury could limit him during the early part of spring training, but he is not expected to miss any time during the regular season. Napoli enjoyed a career year during his first campaign with the Rangers and topped 20 homers for the fourth consecutive season. He will likely earn more starts at catcher this season and should be considered a solid C option in the early rounds of most 2012 Fantasy drafts.

Manny Ramirez
Field of Ramirez suitors shrinks by one
Manny Ramirez, DH, TB
2/11/2012
News: MASN.com reports that the Orioles have decided not to pursue free agent DH Manny Ramirez. Baltimore had been one of three teams, along with Oakland and Toronto, who had been considering the 39-year-old. "I don't think there's going to be a fit for Manny," executive vice president Dan Duquette said. "We've looked at that all winter and I'm not sure there's a fit there for the Orioles. I wish Manny a lot of luck, but I just don't think he fits in our ballclub right now." The team has recently signed free agents Wilson Betemit and Nick Johnson, both of whom could contend for the DH spot, lessening the need to sign Ramirez.
Analysis: The Orioles now have other potential designated hitters to turn to, and Ramirez comes with a 50-game PED suspension, so he is not an attractive option. With the A's and Blue Jays still in play, though, Ramirez still has a chance to be relevant in AL-only leagues this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson smooths out his delivery
Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
2/11/2012
News: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves SP Tommy Hanson has worked this offseason to alter his pitching delivery in the hopes that it will make him less prone to injury. Hanson missed most of the final two months of last season due to a shoulder injury, and his health issues were attributed, at least in part, to a hitch in his delivery. He has worked with pitching coach Roger McDowell on a new, smoother delivery over the last six weeks, which should shift some of the stress of his throwing motion to his lower body. In addition to reducing the impact on his arm and shoulder, the more compact delivery should help Hanson to reduce the number of stolen bases off of him.
Analysis: We have yet to see how well Hanson will pitch in a game with his new delivery, but if it can make him more durable and prevent steals, it will enhance his already-robust Fantasy value. Even with health concerns, Hanson profiles as a low-end No. 2 SP, and if his new delivery works out, he could produce at an even higher level.

Jason Varitek
Varitek getting some interest
Jason Varitek, C, BOS
2/11/2012
News: CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman reports that free agent C Jason Varitek has received some interest from teams this offseason, and he will soon decide whether to play in 2012. The Red Sox, for whom Varitek has played his entire 15-year major league career, are among the teams interested. Retirement is a possible option for the 39-year-old.
Analysis: Varitek has played in just 107 games over the last two seasons, so even if he decides to play one more year, he is unlikely to be a factor in most Fantasy leagues. He does still have some pop in his bat, though, so owners in deep formats should stay tuned to see what Varitek decides.

Brandon Gomes
Gomes recovering from back surgery
Brandon Gomes, RP, TB
2/11/2012
News: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Rays RP Brandon Gomes continues to recover from back surgery that he underwent in November, and he is at risk of missing the beginning of spring training. Gomes had the procedure to clean out the area around a disc, and he is still probably at least two weeks away from throwing off a mound. "Right now it's progressing along great, I don't really see anything to be concerned about," Gomes told reporters on Friday. "I might miss the very beginning of spring training, but that's about it." Gomes could still be ready for the beginning of the regular season.
Analysis: Gomes pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 2.92 ERA in 40 games with the Rays. He will probably fill a middle relief role for Tampa Bay again this season. A good strikeout pitcher, Gomes is a low-end option for owners in leagues that use middle relievers.

Cody Ross
Ross re-working his swing
Cody Ross, LF, BOS
2/11/2012
News: Red Sox OF Cody Ross was disappointed with his 2011 season, in which he batted just .240 for the Giants, but he told WEEI.com that he is making some changes in order perform better in 2012. Ross watched video from his performances last year and noticed some adjustments that he needed to make at the plate. Specifically, Ross said he is "really focusing on just driving the ball and staying on top of the ball as opposed to swinging with more of an upper-cut." Ross started to address these changes late last season, working with former Giants teammate Carlos Beltran.
Analysis: Ross' flyball rate skyrocketed to 48 percent last season, resulting in a high percentage of flyouts, which put a damper on his batting average. Not only could his new approach to hitting help him to cut back on those easy outs, but it could pay big dividends in doubles-friendly Fenway Park. Ross lacks a regular position, but between filling in for injured Carl Crawford (wrist) early in the year and spelling Ryan Sweeney in right field, he could put together a decent amount of playing time. Look to Ross as a solid option in AL-only leagues.

Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera shedding weight for move to 3B
Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
2/10/2012
News: Tigers C Alex Avila told ESPN.com on Friday that Miguel Cabrera has lost 20-25 pounds this offseason in anticipation of his move to third base. Cabrera, who played first base each of the last few seasons, is moving to the hot corner with Prince Fielder signing with Detroit in the offseason. Cabrera batted .344 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 2011.
Analysis: Cabrera came up as an infielder and has shown in the past that he can play the hot corner. His size has been one of the bigger question marks on whether or not he can last an entire season at third base so shedding some weight should help the process. Good thing for Fantasy owners is that his defense will not affect on his value, and he should continue to mash at the plate for Detroit. Add to the fact that he will gain duel eligibility and owners should target Cabrera as a Top 5 Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Sean White
White catches on with BoSox
Sean White, RP, COL
2/11/2012
News: The Red Sox signed RP Sean White to a minor-league deal on Friday. The right-hander posted a 5.68 ERA in 53 appearances in the minors for the Rockies last season.
Analysis: White has a career 4.16 ERA and last pitched in the majors in 2010. Even if he breaks camp with the big club, plan on ignore him in all Fantasy formats on Draft Day.

 
 
 
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