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Scott White

2010 Fantasy outlooks: San Francisco Giants

By | Fantasy Writer


For the first time since Barry Bonds left town, the Giants had their eyes on a playoff spot last year, giving the Rockies a fight to the finish. But even though they came up short, their up-and-coming talent assures they won't go away any time soon.

It begins with their pitching staff -- one dominant enough to overcome an offense that ranked last in the NL in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging. Led by two aces coming off their 25th birthdays in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the starting rotation only figures to get better if prospect Madison Bumgarner catches on right away and project Jonathan O. Sanchez lives up to his potential. Suddenly, free-agent bust Barry Zito is little more than an afterthought. On the strength of that pitching staff, closer Brian Wilson, who showed enough improvement last season to convince the team he's a permanent solution, could challenge for 45 saves.

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Even though the starting lineup was mostly a liability, it did unveil one shining beacon of hope in Pablo Sandoval. He represents the organization's first homegrown hitter with All-Star potential since Matt Williams and Will Clark. That's a prospect 20 years in the making, not to mention a sign that the Giants realize they can no longer win the way they did with Barry Bonds, filling out a lineup with middling veterans and asking him to make up for any deficiencies. They need hitters up and down the lineup, and when top prospect Buster Posey takes over as starting catcher, they'll take another step in that direction.

Of course, they did bring in the obligatory veterans, convincing themselves Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa qualify as middle-of-the-order hitters even though most other teams saw them as role players. Still, both represent upgrades at their respective positions, meaning Lincecum, Cain and company will only have more reason to succeed in 2010.

Breakout: Jonathan O. Sanchez, SP

It has to come together for this strikeout artist eventually, doesn't it? He took another step forward last year, but it didn't come easily, his early-season struggles forcing him to the bullpen for a short period. He pitched well when he returned, though, posting a 3.46 ERA over his final 16 starts, which included a no-hitter. The 27-year-old left-hander will have to improve his control to avoid becoming an Oliver Perez type whose performance doesn't match his stuff, but based on his age and steady progress, if a breakthrough is coming, it'll come soon. He isn't a breakout candidate in the "turn your draft upside-down to make sure you get him" mold, but more one of the "take a flier on him late just in case" variety. Starting pitchers who average more than a strikeout per inning are few and far between.

Bust: Bengie Molina, C

Just when the Giants hinted Buster Posey would start, they backed down and re-signed Molina. On the surface, a return to San Francisco seems like good news for the veteran catcher -- after all, he had his best years there -- but just because the Giants haven't turned the page to Posey doesn't mean they haven't turned it from Molina. He won't bat cleanup anymore, which eliminates all those RBI opportunities that set him apart from other catchers, and at age 35, he has nowhere to go but down. He struck out a career-high 68 times last season, indicating a loss of bat speed, and injuries have already become a factor. The slightest muscle pull opens the door for Posey to take the job and never look back. Molina is nothing more than a stopgap -- a good one, but just as temporary as any other.

Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner, SP

Bumgarner worked mostly out of the bullpen in his brief stint with the Giants last season, but he looked every bit ready for major-league duty, striking out 10 batters in 10 innings. And that was with his velocity down -- something an offseason of rest should cure. With all the talent in their starting rotation, the Giants have no reason to rush Bumgarner, so the fact he stands to win a rotation spot at age 20 speaks volumes of his talent. He's a future ace -- and one relatively unhyped, possibly because the Giants have so many aces already. He'll endure some growing pains, but a rookie season much like the one Brett Anderson had last year is possible. If he goes undrafted in your league, you'll want to keep a close eye on him because once he figures things out, he won't look back.

San Francisco Giants Outlook
Projected lineup
Pos.
Projected Rotation
1 Aaron Rowand CF 1 Tim Lincecum RH
2 Freddy Sanchez 2B 2 Matt Cain RH
3 Pablo Sandoval 3B 3 Barry Zito LH
4 Aubrey Huff 1B 4 Jonathan O. Sanchez LH
5 Mark DeRosa LF 5 Madison Bumgarner LH
6 Bengie Molina C Alt Todd Wellemeyer RH
7 Edgar Renteria SS Top bullpen arms
8 Nate Schierholtz RF CL Brian Wilson RH
Top bench options SU Sergio Romo RH
R Juan Uribe INF RP Jeremy Affeldt LH
R Eugenio Velez UTL RP Brandon Medders RH
R Travis Ishikawa 1B RP Dan Runzler LH
Rookies/Prospects Age Pos. 2009 high Destination
1 Buster Posey 23 C Majors Triple-A
Compares to Joe Mauer, but return of Molina delays him for now. Should be perennial All-Star.
2 Madison Bumgarner 20 SP Majors Majors
Dip in velocity a concern, but future ace will get shot at age 20. Numbers suggest he's ready.
3 Thomas Neal 22 OF Class A Double-A
Walks plenty and regained power stroke after '07 shoulder surgery. Could arrive by midseason.
4 Zack Wheeler 19 SP DNP -- unsigned Class A
First-round pick in 2009 still years from contributing, but should give Giants another ace.
5 Dan Runzler 25 RP Majors Majors
Relievers rarely matter in Fantasy, but lefty has closer stuff. If Wilson goes down, watch out.
Best of the rest: Roger Kieschnick, OF; Chris Dominguez, 3B; Kevin Pucetas, SP; Darren Ford, OF; Joe Martinez, SP; Brandon Crawford, SS; Nicholas Noonan, SS; Conor M. Gillaspie, 3B; Henry Sosa, SP; Matt Downs, 2B; Mike McBryde, OF; Jackson Williams, C; Charles Culberson, SS; Tommy Joseph, C; Alex Hinshaw, RP; Francisco Peguero, OF; Ehire Adrianza, SS; and Osiris Matos, RP.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Team outlooks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Johan Santana
Santana looks 'great' playing catch
Johan Santana, SP, NYM
2:25 PM
News: The Wall Street Journal reports Mets SP Johan Santana (shoulder) played catch from 175 feet Monday. Manager Terry Collins said Santana looked "great" and he hopes the left-hander will throw off a mound by the end of the week.
Analysis: Collins' assessment of Santana sounds like cautious optimism. After all it was just catch. Santana has bigger hurdles to clear in hopes of pitching for the first time since the 2010 season. Santana is coming off a serious shoulder injury and who knows if he can return to the dominant arm he once was. Fantasy owners should bear in mind that Chien-Ming Wang, who underwent the same procedure, needed two years to make it back to the majors, so Santana could wind up providing far fewer than 25 starts -- which is the Mets' goal for the lefty this season. Because of the playing time risk, he is a late-round option in mixed leagues at best.

Ryan Braun
Braun ruling coming soon?
Ryan Braun, LF, MIL
1:51 PM
News: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports there is no indication that a ruling will be announced Monday regarding Ryan Braun's appeal of a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. It appears the recommended guideline for a ruling will be extended.
Analysis: The entire baseball world want this issue to be put to bed, but it seems we might have to wait a little longer for a ruling. The Brewers remain upbeat about Braun's situation, but only time will tell what happens. If Braun avoids a suspension, then he remains a first-round Fantasy pick. If he is suspended 50 games, then he is going to tumble down draft boards a bit, but Braun would still be an early-round Fantasy selection based on potential once he becomes active.

Seth Smith
Cespedes to bump Smith?
Seth Smith, RF, OAK
1:37 PM
News: Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes and the Oakland Athletics have agreed to a $36 million, four-year contract. Agent Adam Katz confirmed Monday the sides had reached agreement, with details still to be finalized. Cespedes' arrival means the A's could eventually bump Seth Smith to designated hitter.
Analysis: We will have to wait and see what happens when Cespedes finally arrives at A's camp, but the speculation is that the A's outfield alignment will eventually be Josh Reddick in right field, Coco Crisp in center field and Cespedes in left, which is where Smith is currently penciled in as the starter. But the A's could use a rotation at DH, which would still allow Smith to see regular at-bats, if Cespedes doesn't have to begin the year in the minors, which remains an option as well. Smith struggles against left-handed pitchers, so he might still be in a platoon situation like he was with the Rockies. Smith remains more of a late-round Fantasy option on Draft Day.

Mike Napoli
Napoli's ankle still an issue
Mike Napoli, C, TEX
12:48 PM
News: ESPN.com reports Rangers catcher Mike Napoli said his injured left ankle is progressing, but he is still not 100 percent. Napoli turned his ankle in the World Series against the Cardinals last year. "I think I’m close," Napoli said. "I’m not really going to know until I get into the wear and tear of spring training and catching all the time. But I've been feeling good and getting better day by day." Napoli said he has been running on the ankle, and he is also hitting and throwing without pain. However, he is still concerned about how it will hold up with the constant squatting and baseball activity. "But I'm trying not to do that all the time so I'm not depending on that," Napoli said. "I'm working on getting my little muscles stronger."
Analysis: The Dallas Morning News reports GM Jon Daniels said exams by team physician Keith Meister said Napoli's ankle shows no structural damage, but Napoli is still experiencing soreness. "The fact he's still feeling it a few months later speaks to what he went through to play the rest of Game 6 and go back out for Game 7," Daniels said. "It was about as bad as it looked to the rest of us." You have to wonder if Napoli can't shake this injury if it will play into how much time he gets behind the plate. Nonetheless, if Napoli catches less that just means he will likely see more PT at DH and first base. The Rangers aren't going to take his bat out of the lineup. Napoli remains a top 5 Fantasy catcher on Draft Day.

Ryan Kalish
Kalish not cleared to swing bat
Ryan Kalish, CF, BOS
4:41 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox OF Ryan Kalish has arrived at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla., and is working out. However, he hasn't been cleared to swing a bat as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
Analysis: Kalish isn't expected to join the MLB roster until later this summer, so this news isn't shocking. Kalish is still holding out hope to be ready by opening day, but he isn't counting on it. It's disappointing he has to deal with this injury since the Red Sox have an opening in right field, which Kalish would be competing for had he avoided surgery. Kalish could very well emerge as an everyday player once he is healthy, but consider Kalish more of a draft-and-stash option in AL-only formats on Draft Day.

Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzo trims down for 2012?
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS
4:36 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox 1B Adrian Gonzalez showed up to spring training on Monday, even though position players didn't have to report until Feb. 23. The paper notes that Gonzalez appears trimmer than he was at the end of the 2011 season.
Analysis: Perhaps Gonzalez wanted to get a bit more in shape for the 2012 season, but it's not like he had poor conditioning in 2011. He did pretty well in his first season with Boston, batting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBI. He is only 29 years old and still has plenty of quality years left. Gonzalez remains an early-round Fantasy pick in all formats.

Daniel Bard
Bard throws bullpen session
Daniel Bard, RP, BOS
4:26 PM
News: The Boston Globe reports Red Sox pitcher Daniel Bard, who is making the transition from reliever to starter, threw a bullpen session Monday morning at the team's spring training complex in Fort Myers, Fla. Bard said it was the fifth or sixth time he has thrown from a mound this winter.
Analysis: While Bard was pretty impressive as a reliever in the majors, starting will be a whole new challenge. He will be starting for the first time since his first pro season in the minors in 2007, when he went 3-7 with a 7.08 ERA in 22 starts at Class A. His two biggest challenges are building up endurance and developing his changeup as a third pitch. Clearly, Bard's work in the majors and pitching for the Red Sox will draw Fantasy interest, but Fantasy owners can't oversell him on Draft Day. He has to be considered a late-round option because this is a big transition.

Grady Sizemore
GM hopes Sizemore plays 120 games
Grady Sizemore, CF, CLE
4:20 PM
News: The Plain Dealer reports Indians GM Chris Antonetti said he would like to see OF Grady Sizemore play 100-120 games in 2012. Antonetti added that the Indians took a gamble on bringing Sizemore back with a one-year deal, but he said the veteran outfielder showed at times in 2011 that he can still be an exceptional offensive player.
Analysis: Sizemore's career has gone from promising to disappointing because of knee problems. But the Indians are willing to give it one more try and see if Sizemore can make it through the 2012 season. It seems, however, the team is open to sitting him at times to help keep him healthy. Fantasy owners need to keep that in mind on Draft Day. Consider Sizemore at best a late-round, injury-risk Fantasy sleeper.

Esmerling Vasquez
Vasquez outrighted to minors
Esmerling Vasquez, RP, MIN
4:09 PM
News: The Twins announced RP Esmerling Vasquez cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. He will be a non-roster invitee to spring training.
Analysis: Vasquez has a career 4.66 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He has been a mediocre middle reliever and can be ignored in all Fantasy formats.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero wants to be Yankees' DH
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL
2:51 PM
News: ESPN reports free agent Vladimir Guerrero has told the Yankees he wants to be their designated hitter, a role that became vacant when Jesus Montero was traded to Seattle. Newsday first reported in mid-January that a rep for Guerrero contacted the Yankees about the DH role. ESPN reports Raul Ibanez is still considered the front-runner to sign with the Yankees as their DH.
Analysis: It's not hard to see why Guerrero wants to join a loaded Yankees lineup. However, the 37-year-old slugger probably didn't instill a lot of faith in the New York brass after the lukewarm season he put together in 2011 for the Orioles. It's true that Guerrero thrived in a loaded Rangers lineup in 2010, but who knows if he can still play at that level. Until he signs with a team, then Guerrero can probably be left off Fantasy rosters.

 
 
 
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